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Twelfth session第十二届大会
Accra, Ghana2008年4月20至25日
20–25 April 2008加纳,阿克拉
Report of the Secretary-General of UNCTAD to贸发会议秘书长提交第十二届贸发大会的报告
UNCTAD XII全球化给发展带来的机遇和挑战
Globalization for development: Opportunities and目 录
challenges Contents Page页 次
Preface: From Midrand to Accra前言:从米德兰到阿克拉...........................................
34
I.一、新的现实和持续的挑战.
New realities and persistent challenges................................
67
A. Significant advancesA. 重大的进展.........................................
67
B. ApprehensionB. 忧惧.........................................................
89
C. Persistent challengesC. 持续的挑战..................................................
1011
D. The capital flows paradoxD. 资本流向的背反...............................................
1113
E. From “getting prices right” to “getting development right”E. 从“调整价格”到“调整发展”...........................
1315
II. Coherence in global policymaking: Multilateralism at a crossroads二、全球决策的连贯性:处于十字路口的多边主义
1618 A. 全球金融的系统性不平衡和新重商主义 18 B. 全球金融多边努力的缘由 19 C. 为持续发展提供可持续的资金 20 D. 纠正多边贸易体系的不对称 23 三、目前全球经济环境中的关键贸易和发展问题 26
A. Systemic imbalances in global finance and a new mercantilismA. “新南方”的兴起...............
1626
B. The case for a multilateral effort in global financeB. 能源安全.............................
1728
C.C.
Sustainable financing for sustained development流动和发展:劳工一体化
1830
D.D.
Redressing asymmetries in the multilateral trading system服务:贸易和发展的新领域
2031
III.E.
Key trade and development issues in the current global economic初级商品:保持新的增长势头
environment32
24F. 环境、气候变化和发展:未来的挑战 34 G. 用技术和创新增进贸易和竞争力 35 四、加强生产能力、贸易与投资:扶持环境 36
A.A.
The emergence of the “new South”全球框架和扶持环境
2436
B.B.
Energy security促进扶持环境的国家政策
2639
C. Mobility and development: Labour integration五、加强贸发会议的作用、影响和实效
2746
D.A.
Services: The new trade and development frontier改进贸发会议的工作方法
2846
E.B.
Commodities: Sustaining the new growth trend增强贸发会议在正出现问题上的作用
2951
F.C.
Environment, climate change and development: The challenges加强贸发会议在联合国改革方面的作用
ahead55
30前言:从米德兰到阿克拉
G.1.
Technology and innovation for trade and competitiveness上一次在非洲大陆举行贸发大会,是1996年在南非米德兰的事情。对于南非和发展中世界,那都是一个带来了希望和前途的时期。发展中国家当时希望能够充分利用贸易和资本流动的快速全球化,而且,许多发展中国家也已经作出了融入国际贸易体系的努力,同时开放了作为国家经济改革议程一大支柱的本国金融部门和资本项目。当时的期望是,迅速实行自由化和加大对国际市场力量和竞争的开放程度将能提高效率和竞争力,而这样就可以为提高经济增长速度和缩小与发达国家的收入差距打下基础。
32 IV.2.
Strengthening productive capacities, trade and investment: The enabling environment在此前不久完成的乌拉圭回合覆盖了事关发展中国家利益的关键部门,而世贸组织的成立又可以通过有约束力的争端解决制度监督以规则为基础的贸易体系。这些动态都进一步强化了这种广泛的乐观情绪。
333. 但是,到了1990年代末,对于开放议程的这种信念随着东亚金融危机而开始消散。这场危机向人们展示了资本项目开放的危险。由于人们开始比较清楚地看到,实际结果并没有达到预期程度,因此,最初对贸易体系的潜力所抱有的那种兴高采烈,也被较为冷静的评估所取代。变得显然的另一点是,执行乌拉圭回合的协定,往往使发展中国家付出沉重代价,而所许诺的许多好处却难于实现,其中有些只是在经过了长时间的过渡期之后才显现出来。
A.4.
The global framework and the enabling environment较一般而言,公众舆论越来越明确地承认,单凭加强经济接轨解决不了发展问题。许多最不发达国家尽管实行了广泛的贸易自由化,但并没有取得重大的减贫成就,有些甚至出现了负增长。公民社会发生的大规模抗议运动,表现出了对于以贫困者、环境退化和就业者的权益为代价追求全球化利益的广泛关注。
335. 发展结果令人失望所引起的这种反应,引来了一些重要的倡议。其中最为重要的是2000年的千年峰会,联合国所有会员国的领导人当时通过了到2015年所要实现的《千年发展目标》。此后,2002年3月在墨西哥蒙特雷举行的国际发展筹资会议,处理了如何为实现发展和取得目标筹集国家和国际资金的问题。
B.6.
National policies to promote an enabling environment重点的转变在多边贸易体系当中也有表现,世贸组织成员在2001年商定开展又一轮贸易谈判,其中包括了一项明确的发展议程。由于人们对于贸易自由化的发展记录恢复了清醒头脑,因此还通过“贸易援助”倡议呼吁更多地注意发展中国家的供应制约和生产能力问题。
357. 有意思的是,对于发展的这种再度强调,并不是在经济危机时期出现的,恰恰相反,它是在世界经济有利于大量发展中国家实现增长的时期出现的。2000年代早期,由于“网络”泡沫的破灭和2001年9月11日的恐怖袭击而发生了中度衰退,自这一衰退结束以来,世界经济环境一直非常有利。事实上,发展中经济体作为一个整体在过去五年当中业绩非凡,实现了5%至6%的平均增长率。从这种有利环境中得到好处的国家比以往任何时候都多。即使是最不发达国家和增长规律飘忽不定的其他一些非洲国家,平均年度增长率也超过了5%,与1990年代后期相比取得了重大的进步。然而,并非所有国家或人口的所有部分都获得了这种增长势头的好处,这也是繁荣与抗议同时并存的部分原因。因此,公平增长这个老问题又重现于一个新的背景之下,这就使寻找新的办法,以较为民主的方式分享全球化收益的必要性变得更为迫切。
V.8.
Strengthening UNCTAD’s role, impact and effectiveness这段增长经验的另一个方面是,它是同世界经济格局的巨变联系在一起的。在1996年,贸易和投资流量的大部分发生在发达经济体之间,而南方各国主要通过提供原材料换取制成品。今天的局面截然不同了。一些幅员辽阔的发展中国家如中国和印度,在过去的十年中取得了瞩目的增长业绩,成为了世界经济的增长发动机。这些国家的进口需求不但为发达国家,而且也为发展中国家带来了出口机会。因此,世界经济中的南南贸易份额正在增加,使南南贸易成为了带动增长的真正火车头。除了商品贸易之外,许多发展中国家正在日益成为制成品、技能密集型的服务和资本的出口国。
429. “第二代”全球化正在由此而形成。这个阶段的全球化具有的一个特点是经济多极性,南方在其中发挥着重要的角色。今天,如果没有中国、印度、巴西和南非的参与,任何国际经济协定的谈判都是不可想象的。一些发展中国家的新经济份量,为发展中世界的其余部分带来了重大机遇。这也突出表明,现在需要的是政策多样性而不是同一性。
A.10.
Improving the working methods of UNCTAD但是,不能安于现状。虽然有过去五年取得的经济成功,出于一些原因,还需要保持警觉。基础广泛的当前经济扩张面临着种种风险,应当通过谨慎的经济管理加以避免。其中之一关系到全球经常项目失衡的持续积累。如果不能有条不紊地理顺这类失衡,可能就会失去大部分当前的增长势头。另一个风险涉及到能源价格提升可能造成的影响。此外,过去的经验表明,初级商品价格的改善,在相当程度上可能发生逆转。所以,就必须把当前的意外收益用来支持继续和持续的增长。现在还有一些迹象表明,南方的崛起刺激了发达经济体的保护主义反应。这种反应与推动当前全球化浪潮的自由化范式背道而驰,对于顺畅的环境构成了有害威胁。
4211. 保持慎重的第二个原因更为迫切,这就是,虽然贸易实现了前所未有的扩张,但并不是所有人都从全球化中得到了好处。如上所述,有些国家以及不同国家中人口的某些部分,被排斥在当前的繁荣增长之外,而且经常受到增长后果的负面影响。例如,发展中非石油出口国的业绩远远落后于发展中国家作为一个整体取得的业绩。另外,许多国家,尤其是最不发达国家和中、低收入发展中国家及转型国家,并没有能够把增长有效地转化为减贫和更广泛的人类发展。撒哈拉以南非洲虽然加快了增长速度,但是在争取《千年发展目标》的问题上仍然落在后面。
B.12.
Enhancing UNCTAD’s role in emerging issues而且,全球化的种种许诺现在并没有得到全面落实。虽然各项乌拉圭回合协定的执行改善了发展中国家进入发达国家市场的准入,但是,在关税壁垒近些年来有所降低的同时,却出现了更多利用非关税措施的现象。1996年发起的“重债穷国倡议”尚未成功解决外债问题,而加大官方发展援助的承诺也还没有转化为援助流量的整体提升。
46一、新的现实和持续的挑战
C.A.
Enhancing UNCTAD’s role in the context of United Nations reform重大的进展
5113. 自2000年初以来,发展中国家的总体业绩和追赶最富裕国家的能力在若干重要地区取得了令人瞩目的改善。网络泡沫终止以来世界经济的复苏几乎刺激了所有区域和国家的增长。虽然绝对收入仍然存在巨大差异,但发展中国家在1996-2006十年期内把实际收入(扣除了消费者价格因素的国内生产总值)提高了71%,而7国集团仅为30%。尽管巴西、阿根廷和一些较小国家由于金融危机严重受挫,但拉丁美洲的实际收入增长了39%,非洲增长了55%,转型经济体增长了57%。在全球复苏开始五年之后的2006年,132个发展中国家当中只有2个出现了实际收入下降,而2000-2005年期间实际收入下降的国家为7个,此前五年是13个。与此同时,增长的波动幅度已经降低到通常只有高度发达经济体所能保持的水平。
Preface: From Midrand to Accra14. 在这种有利的外部经济环境中,多数发展中经济体实现了就业的强劲增长,或稳定和略为降低了失业率。但是,与发达经济体的失业现象相比,发展中国家的失业虽然程度有限,但对高增长率的反应要迟钝得多。发展中区域和新兴市场的这种迟钝反应(有时同失业性增长交织在一起)的主要原因可能是,巨大的劳动力储备只有在劳动力需求和工资持续上涨的长时期内才会受到进入较正规市场的刺激。包括中国在内的一些新兴经济体表现出,将过去利用率不足的大量劳动力融入官方计量的劳动力队伍可能需要经过多年的高增长率。
1. When the Conference was last convened in the African continent, in Midrand, South Africa, in 1996, it was a time of hope and promise for both South Africa and the developing world. Developing countries were hoping to take full advantage of the fast-accelerating globalization of trade and capital flows, and many had already made efforts to integrate into the international trading system, accompanied by an opening up of their financial sector and capital account, a pillar of their economic reform agenda. Rapid liberalization and increasing exposure to international market forces and competition were expected to boost efficiency and competitiveness, which in turn would underpin a more rapid rate of economic growth and a narrowing of the income gap with developed countries. 2. This widespread optimism was further boosted by the recent completion of the Uruguay Round, which covered key sectors of interest to developing countries, and the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO), with its binding dispute settlement system to oversee the rules-based trading system. 3. By the end of the 1990s, however, this faith in the openness agenda had begun to fade after the East Asian financial crisis, which demonstrated the dangers of capital-account opening. The initial euphoria about the potential of the trading system also gave way to a more sober assessment, as it became clearer that the actual outcomes fell short of expectations. It also became apparent that the implementation of the Uruguay Round agreements was imposing often significant costs on developing countries, while many of the promised benefits remained elusive, and some would only accrue after long transition periods. 4. More broadly, there was a growing public recognition that increasing economic integration alone was not addressing development concerns. Despite extensive trade liberalization, many least developed countries had not achieved significant poverty reduction, and some had experienced negative growth. The widespread concern that the benefits of globalization were being reaped at the cost of the poor, environmental degradation and workers’ rights found expression in broad protest movements in civil society. 5. The reaction to the disappointing developmental results led to a number of important initiatives. The most prominent among them was the Millennium Summit in 2000, where the leaders of all States Members of the United Nations adopted the Millennium Development Goals, to be achieved by 2015. The subsequent International Conference on Financing for Development, held in Monterrey, Mexico, in March 2002, addressed the question of how to mobilize both national and international finance to achieve development and attain the goals. 6. The shift in priorities was also reflected in the multilateral trading system, when WTO members agreed on another round of trade negotiations in 2001 that included an explicit development agenda. Disenchantment with the development record of trade liberalization also led to calls for greater attention to be paid to the supply constraints and productive capacities of developing countries through the “Aid for Trade” initiative.15. 发展中国家的活跃增长是在出色的出口增长刺激下实现的。1996年到2006年,发展中经济体的实际出口增加了近两倍,而7国集团的实际出口仅增加了大约75%。在这个领域内,亚洲显然占有主导地位,其次是转型经济体和拉丁美洲,而非洲的增长幅度与7国集团相同。从进口看,不同区域的扩张程度要接近得多。亚洲是最大的进口区域,增长幅度为170%,转型经济体为150%。非洲的表现较为平衡,实际进口量的增长幅度与出口增长幅度基本持平。1995年以来,世界商品贸易的年平均增长速度为7.5%,保持住了1990年代初形成的强劲增长率,尽管尚未达到1960年代和1970年代大于10%的平均幅度。从总体上看,发展中国家在全球贸易中的份额从1996年的29%增长到了2006年的34%。
7. It is interesting to note that this renewed emphasis on development paradoxically emerged not at a time of economic crisis, but at a time when the world economy was delivering growth to a large number of developing countries. Ever since the end of the mild recession of the early 2000s, which was due to the bursting of the “dot-com” bubble and the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, the world economic environment has been extraordinarily propitious. Indeed, developing economies as a group have performed significantly well in the last five years, achieving on average 5–6 per cent growth. More countries than ever before have been able to benefit from the favourable environment. Even the least developed countries and other African countries, which experienced erratic growth patterns in the past, have been growing at an average annual growth rate of more than 5 per cent, representing significant progress over the late 1990s. However, not all countries or all segments of the population are beneficiaries of this growth, which partly explains the paradox of prosperity and protest. Thus, the old question of growth with equity has resurfaced in a new context, adding urgency to the need to find new ways of sharing the gains from globalization in a more democratic way. 8. Another aspect of this growth experience is that it has been associated with a fundamental change in the pattern of the world economy. Whereas in 1996 the bulk of trade and investment flows were between the developed economies, while the countries of the South were mainly providers of raw materials in exchange for manufactured products, today’s picture is strikingly different. A number of large developing countries such as China and India have experienced spectacular growth over the past decade, making them engines of growth for the world economy. Their demand for imports has generated export opportunities for developed and developing countries alike. As a result, the share of South–South trade is increasing in the world economy, making inter-South trade a veritable locomotive of growth. Besides merchandise trade, many developing countries are increasingly exporters of manufactures, skill-intensive services and capital.16. 一个与此相关的动态是,南南贸易保持了增长。例如,据估计,南南商品贸易从1995年的5770亿美元增加到了2005年的17,000亿美元。因此,世界商品出口中的南南份额在2005年相应增加了15%,1995年的增幅为11%。在过去的二十年中,一些新型经济体在国际商品和服务贸易中的份额有了显著的增长。尤其是巴西、印度、中国、墨西哥、俄罗斯联邦、南非和大韩民国这七个国家对这一趋势的贡献巨大。这些国家的商品出口在全球出口中的份额从1995年的10.6%上升到了2005年的17.2%。这一强劲的贸易业绩为这些新型经济体的快速经济增长作出了贡献,达到了每年5.7%的国内生产总值实际增长率。
9. A “second generation” of globalization is thus emerging. A distinctive characteristic of this phase of globalization is economic multipolarity, in which the South plays a significant role. Today, no negotiation of an international economic agreement is conceivable without the presence of China, India, Brazil and South Africa at the table. The new economic weight of some developing countries creates significant opportunities for the rest of the developing world. It also highlights the need for policy diversity rather than uniformity.17. 由于有了这种良好的贸易业绩,自布雷顿森林货币体系在1970年代初结束以来,发展中国家的总体经常项目第一次扭亏为盈,而发达经济体的经常项目主要由于美国的巨额赤字则陷入逆差。在三大区域组可以看到这种转变,更令人惊奇的是,在大多数较大的区域分组也可以看到这种转变。在2005年,撒哈拉以南非洲,如果将逆差为6%的南非排除在外,经常项目顺差超过了国内生产总值的6%,并且有着明显的上升趋势。南美洲1995年存在2.5%的逆差,但到2005年转为了3%的顺差,除巴西之外,达到了国内生产总值的4.5%。唯一的例外是东欧转型经济体集团(不包括该区域的石油生产国)。
10. However, there is no room for complacency. Despite the economic success of the last five years, vigilance is required for a number of reasons. The current broad-based economic expansion is subject to risks, which should be avoided through careful economic management. One of these risks is related to the continuing build-up of global current-account imbalances. If the unwinding of these imbalances is not orderly, much of the current growth momentum may be lost. Another risk relates to the potential impact of higher energy prices. Furthermore, past experience suggests that much of the improvement in commodity prices could be reversed. It is therefore essential that the current windfall gains be used in the service of continued and sustained growth. There are also emerging signs that the rise of the South is prompting protectionist reactions in developed economies. This goes against the liberalization paradigm that fuelled the current wave of globalization and threatens to harm the propitious environment.18. 总体经济业绩的改善,与金融危机之后全球化经济中经常项目逆差的下降和顺差政体的兴起有着密切关联。这表明,出口和进口两方面受到的巨大价格影响导致了收支平衡态势的扭转,同时刺激了增长。然而,此种刺激因素有两个不同的类别。
11. A second, and even more compelling, reason for caution is that despite the unprecedented expansion of trade, not everyone is benefiting from globalization. As noted above, certain countries, and certain segments of the population within countries, are being left out of the current growth bonanza and are often adversely affected by its consequences. The performance of non–oil-exporting developing countries, for example, is significantly worse than that of developing countries as a whole. In addition, many countries, especially the least developed countries and lower- and middle-income developing and transition countries, have not been able to translate growth effectively into poverty reduction and broader human development. Progress towards the Millennium Development Goals in sub-Saharan Africa continues to lag far behind, despite accelerated growth.19. 在阿根廷或巴西这类中等收入国家的许多实例中可以找到第一类刺激因素。在1990年代初,这两个国家为了压抑通货膨胀,把货币固定在美元上。这一战略意味着,由于名义汇率绝对稳定(阿根廷)或贬值幅度低于弥补通胀差额所必要的程度(巴西),因此造成货币实际升值,竞争力随着时间而损失。在这两个实例中,经常项目都出现了逆差,只是在经过了痛苦的金融危机和货币急剧贬值之后才转为顺差。这两个国家(与欧洲和其他地区的另一些实例一样)的货币贬值最初是用来摆脱危机的一种办法,但后来证明在更长的一段时期内有利于制造业的出口业绩和压缩进口。换言之,由于在危机之后被迫降低币值,一些发展中国家极大地提高了总体竞争力。
12. Moreover, not all promises of globalization have been fulfilled. While the implementation of the Uruguay Round agreements has improved developing countries’ access to the markets of developed countries, the reduction in tariff barriers has in recent years been accompanied by an increase in the use of non-tariff measures. The launching of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Debt Initiative in 1996 has not yet succeeded in solving external debt problems, and commitments to step up official development assistance have yet to be translated into scaled-up flows.20. 但是,许多其他国家由于再度恢复了货币升值,结果失去了一部分在那段时期赢得的竞争力。具体而言,大韩民国、泰国和印度尼西亚等一些亚洲国家以及拉丁美洲最大的国家巴西就属于这种情况,在投机行为驱动之下的货币升值削弱了危机之后在竞争力方面取得的优势。东欧和转型国家在总体上由于工资快速上涨,货币定值过高,在贸易中的整体地位发生恶化,表现为该地区非石油生产国的巨额经常账户逆差。
I.21.
New realities and persistent challenges过去十年当中对于发展中经济体经常项目的第二类刺激因素,显然与初级商品价格激增和初级商品生产国贸易条件的同时改善有关。同样,也是由于外部冲击,初级商品价格出现了相对于制成品的上涨。由于这类产品的需求弹性较低,生产国的收入达到了有史以来的最高水平,改善了这些国家的对外收支平衡。
A.22.
Significant advances世纪之交以来,投资尤其受到了有利环境的积极影响。虽然7国集团的实际投资量始终起伏不大(而投资与国内生产总值的比率有所下降),但发展中经济体在金融危机被克服之后马上就启动了一场投资热潮(无论以绝对值计算还是相对于需求总量)。事实上,投资活力最强的区域是非洲,自2000年以来固定投资翻了一番,增速甚至超过了亚洲。由于亚洲接受的外国直接投资份额要高得多,非洲的国内投资增长率的确出色,尽管与亚洲相比的投资率水平较低。
13. Since early 2000, the overall performance of developing countries and their ability to catch up with the richest countries have improved in an impressive way in several crucial areas. The recovery of the world economy since the end of the dotcom bubble has stimulated growth in nearly all regions and countries. Despite enormous and persistent differences in absolute income, developing countries increased their real income (GDP deflated by consumer prices) by 71 per cent in the decade 1996–2006, compared to 30 per cent in the G-7 countries. Real income in Latin America, despite serious setbacks due to financial crises in Brazil, Argentina and some smaller countries, grew by 39 per cent, Africa by 55 per cent and the economies in transition by 57 per cent. In 2006, five years after the beginning of the global recovery, only two of 132 developing countries recorded falling real income, compared to seven countries in the period 2000–2005 and 13 in the half decade before that. At the same time, volatility of growth has come down to levels normally observed only in highly developed economies.23. 多数国家还设法启动了国内需求的稳定增长。实际私人消费量在1990年代后半期稳定增长,自那时以来明显加速。由于就业在这个时期内增幅不大,消费量的增长更多地是与私人住户实际收入的增长联系在一起的。自2003年以来,所有区域的实际私人消费增长率都十分强劲,亚洲的力度最大。
14. In this favourable external economic climate, most developing economies have seen strong growth in employment or succeeded in stabilizing or slightly reducing unemployment rates. However, measured unemployment in developing countries is much less responsive than unemployment in developed economies to high growth rates. The main reason for this slow response in developing regions and emerging markets (sometimes confounded with jobless growth) may be found in the huge reserves of labour that are stimulated to enter more formal markets only during a sustained period of rising demand for labour and rising wages. As some emerging economies, including China, show, the process of integrating a large number of previously underutilized workers into the officially measured labour force may take many years of high growth rates.B. 忧 惧
15. The dynamic growth in developing countries has been stimulated by extraordinary export growth. Real exports of developing economies nearly tripled between 1996 and 2006, whereas those from the G-7 only rose by some 75 per cent. In this area, Asia clearly dominated the picture, with transition economies and Latin America coming in second, and Africa showing exactly the same increase as the G7. In terms of imports, the expansion in different regions was much closer. Asia was the strongest importer, with a 170 per cent increase, while the transition economies had a 150 per cent increase. Africa’s outcome was quite balanced, with real imports increasing almost as much as exports. Since 1995, world merchandise trade has been growing at an annual average rate of 7.5 per cent, sustaining the strong growth rates that emerged in the early 1990s, though still not matching the averages of more than 10 per cent witnessed through the 1960s and 1970s. Overall, the share of developing countries in global trade increased from 29 per cent in 1996 to 34 per cent in 2006.24. 全球贸易和金融一体化达到了前所未有的深度,涉及的经济体、货物、服务和金融工具数量不断增多。几乎所有国家都面临着全面开放市场带来的挑战以及这些市场上全球行为者更强大的力量。在亚洲,这一全球经济的新驱动国已经崛起,与它们所取代的1970年代和1980年代的先行者相比更为强大,活力更强。这种局面撒下了不确定性和疑惧的种子。
16. A related development has been the sustained rise in South–South exchanges. For example, South–South merchandise trade is estimated to have expanded from $577 billion in 1995 to $1.7 trillion in 2005. This resulted in a concomitant increase in the South–South share of world merchandise exports to 15 per cent in 2005, compared to 11 per cent in 1995. During the last two decades, the shares of a number of emerging economies in international merchandise and services trade have grown considerably. Seven countries in particular have contributed immensely to this trend: Brazil, India, China, Mexico, the Russian Federation, South Africa and the Republic of Korea. The share of merchandise exports of these countries in global exports increased from 10.6 per cent in 1995 to 17.2 per cent in 2005. This robust trade performance contributed to a high economic growth rate in these emerging economies, with annual real GDP growth of 5.7 per cent.25. 一反常态的是,对于全球化,富国和穷国都一样感到畏惧,尽管原因大不相同。中国和印度这类活跃亚洲经济体的出口产品打入了一些消费品的世界市场,即便从这些新兴经济体出口产品的成功企业为发达国家在国际上开展多种经营的公司所拥有,这种情况依然被看作是新全球驱动者会带来种种危险的证明。信息技术驱动下的一些服务业越来越多地转向境外的一些发展中国家,高技术工厂离开本国向低工资的地点转移,更加剧了这种忧惧。这些资本条件不足的新兴经济体有着15亿就业者,发达国家的一些经济学者和有影响的政治人物把这个数字同本国经济现有的劳动力加在了一起。这就往往被简单地解释为世界的劳动力供应增加了50%,而这也就意味着,在过去的十年当中全球资本劳力比率下降了一半,造成了新一轮的劳动力(尤其是低技能劳动力)过剩,压低了工资,提高了利润,并且由于资本相对短缺而压低了利率。结果,“国家竞争力”的概念在发达国家得到了新的内涵和更强的影响,甚至在国际谈判当中,包括在世界贸易组织的谈判中,也都打下了烙印。这造成了一种对低工资国家从根本上保持警惕的态度,致使对发展中国家提出了提高社会和环境标准的要求。
17. As a consequence of this favourable trade performance, the overall current accounts of developing countries have swung to a surplus for the first time since the end of the Bretton Woods monetary system at the beginning of the 1970s, while those of developed economies are in deficit, mainly due to the huge deficit of the United States. The swing can be observed in the three big regional groups and, even more surprisingly, in most of the bigger regional subgroups. In 2005, sub-Saharan Africa – if South Africa, with a deficit of 6 per cent, is excluded – recorded a current account surplus of more than 6 per cent of GDP on a clearly rising trend. In South America, a deficit of 2.5 per cent in 1995 turned into a surplus of 3 per cent by 2005; excluding Brazil, it amounted to 4.5 per cent of GDP. The only exception is the group of transition economies in Eastern Europe, if the oil producers of the region are not included.26. 对于发展中国家,产生忧惧的原因是,贸易和自由化收益的实现缓慢,在很大程度上由主要经济体驱动和引导的快速发展的世界市场上存在着各种不确定性,缺乏国家主控权。由于出口结构单一、依靠外国直接投资、存在技术依赖性、赶超进程以及减轻绝对贫困的速度缓慢,因此,发展中国家对于开放市场的改革议程所许诺的互利互惠产生了疑问。另外,发展中国家在过去十年内与全球分工的融合,并非像许多人期待的那样顺利。金融危机破坏了许多有前途的发展方案,造成了痛苦的经历和对国际资本市场及主要捐助方的依赖。在一定程度上,由于这些关注,发展中国家的国际发展议程不得不首先处理的问题是,恢复对国家政策的控制权和扩大国家政策的灵活余地。
18. There is a close correlation between the improvement of overall economic performance and the reduction of current account deficits and emerging surplus regimes in the globalized economy in the wake of financial crises. This shows that huge price effects on both the export and import sides brought about the turnaround in the balance of payments and at the same time stimulated growth. However, there are two different classes of such stimulants.27. 通过进一步的审视可以看出,全球化影响的现实,大致处在上述各种忧惧和观点之间的位置上。对于崛起的南方的低工资劳动力,发达经济体的忧惧显然是一种夸张。劳动力的国际流动性极低,而不应与短期资本流动混为一谈的固定资本的流动性相当有限。因此,要素价格和尤其是劳动力不可能一夜之间就均等起来。实际上,从许多人口众多的发展中国家角度看,这仍然是一个令人沮丧的缓慢进程。在这种相当平缓的融合引导下,结构变革既没有妨碍发达世界的增长,也没有硬性推行工业化世界1970年代和1980年代失业率攀升的同时发生的那种冲击。相反,由于新兴经济体提高了劳动生产力,扩大了国内收入和消费,因此,也就扩大了对世界其他地方产品的需求。
19. The first can be observed in many cases of middle-income countries such Argentina or Brazil. Both countries anchored their currencies to the United States dollar at the beginning of the 1990s to bring down inflation. This strategy implied a real appreciation of their currencies and a loss of competitiveness over time because the nominal exchange rate was absolutely stable (Argentina) or depreciated less than needed to compensate for inflation differentials (Brazil). In both cases, the current accounts went into deficit. Only after a painful financial crisis and a sharp currency devaluation did they swing into surplus. In both countries (as in other cases in Europe and elsewhere) devaluation was at first a way out of the crisis, but proved to be beneficial in terms of export performance and import compression in manufacturing for a much longer time. In other words, the overall competitiveness of a number of developing countries increased dramatically, owing to forced currency devaluation after the crisis.28. 除此之外,还需要适当地考虑亚洲增长活力产生的积极影响以及这种影响对于世界经济其他地区的外溢作用。初级商品需求的兴旺和初级商品价格的上涨,为发展中世界的许多初级商品带来了久违的机会,因而也就使这些国家的贸易条件得到了重大和持续的改善。即使是非洲,尽管一些非初级商品生产国面临着不良的外部环境,但作为一个整体,在过去五年也实现了每年5%的增长率。最为重要的是,虽然存在着气候变化这类负面外部条件,但是,世界经济自2000年以来的业绩比过去30年的任何时候都更为强劲,这既不是一种巧合,也不见得是一种短暂的现象。从整个世界看,增长率的加速已经有了比较长的一段时期,并且证明相当稳定。
20. However, many other countries have lost part of the gains of competitiveness of that period due to renewed appreciation of their currencies. In particular, this is the case in some countries in Asia such as the Republic of Korea, Thailand and Indonesia, and in the biggest country in Latin America, Brazil, where speculation-driven appreciation of the currency has resulted in a deterioration of post-crisis advantages in competitiveness. In Eastern Europe and in the transition countries in general, the global position in trade has worsened due to rapid wage growth and overvalued currencies, which are reflected in huge current account deficits of the non-oil producers in that region.C. 持续的挑战
21. The second class of stimulants to developing economies’ current accounts in the last decade clearly relates to commodity price hikes and the concomitant improvement in terms of trade of commodity-producing countries. Again, it was due to an external shock that the prices of commodities increased relative to manufactured goods; given the low elasticity of demand for these products, the revenues of the producers reached all-time highs, improving their external balances.29. 虽然发展中国家作为一个整体近几年来取得了令人瞩目的业绩,但许多国家,尤其是最不发达国家和其他低收入经济体,并没有因为复苏而提高地位,继续依赖于出口低增加值的初级商品。这些国家遭受着贸易条件的不断恶化、世界价格的剧烈波动和在世界贸易中所占份额的下降。50个最不发达国家的出口份额从1960年的2.5%下降到了1995年的0.5%,此后一直徘徊在这个水平上,尽管初级商品价格的改善在2006年帮助这些国家把份额提高到了0.8%。这些国家的大多数地处撒哈拉以南非洲,依赖于初级商品。
22. Investment in particular has been positively affected by the favourable environment since the turn of the century. Whilst real investment in the G-7 countries has remained rather flat (and investment–GDP ratios have declined), developing economies were able to trigger an investment boom (in absolute terms and relative to aggregate demand) once the financial crises were overcome. In fact, the most dynamic region in terms of investment was Africa, outpacing even Asia with a doubling of fixed investment since 2000. Given the fact that Asia received a much higher share of foreign direct investment, domestic investment growth in Africa is truly remarkable, despite the rather low level of its investment ratio compared to that of Asia.30. 有力的证据表明,在许多情况下,高经济增长率并没有切实有效地转化为减贫努力。其中部分原因是,农业生产率十分低下,人均耕地面积随着人口的增长而缩小,造成了难以利用土地合理谋生的状况。越来越多的人走出农业寻找工作。但是,多数最不发达国家经济体根本没有能力为这些人创造生产性就业的机会。这些国家中的五分之四在新千年的非农业劳动生产率低于20年前,三分之一的农业劳动生产率出现了实际下降。
23. Most countries also managed to trigger stable expansion of domestic demand. Real private consumption increased steadily in the last half of the 1990s and has accelerated remarkably since. As employment did not grow much over this period, the growth in consumption is more associated with growth of real incomes of private households. Since 2003, the growth rate of real private consumption in all regions has been strong, with Asia the most dynamic.31. 世界各个区域的发展中国家包括最不发达国家之间的差距,也在加大。这种趋向自1980年以来尤其明显,但最近更增强了势头。据估算,发展中国家(不包括中国)1980年的国际收入不平等,有64%是区域间差距,36%是区域内差距。但是,到2001年,这两个比例几乎完全颠倒了过来,发展中国家(不包括中国)的国际收入不平等有62%是区域内差距,38%是区域间差距。
B.32.
Apprehension这些估计数字反映出的事实是,在每个区域都有一些国家成绩斐然,另一些国家增长蹒跚。例如,在拉丁美洲,关于1999年至2005年期间贫困发生率变化的近期估计显示,贫困率在六个国家明显下降(智利、哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔、洪都拉斯、墨西哥和委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔共和国),在另外五个国家明显上升(阿根廷、玻利维亚、萨尔瓦多、巴拿马和乌拉圭)。有相关数据的另外四个国家变化不大。
24. Global trade and financial integration have reached unprecedented depth, involving a continuously growing number of economies, goods, services and financial instruments. Nearly all countries are facing the challenges of globally open markets and the greater power of global players on these markets. In Asia, new driver nations of this global economy have emerged which are bigger and more dynamic than their predecessors in the 1970s and 1980s. This has spread uncertainty and apprehension.33. 政策制定者面临的挑战是,如何促进包容性发展,维护当前有利形势的主要特点,避免周期性倒退。这就要求采取一种新的方法对待全球经济治理,也要求实行一种新的国家政策重点。当前流行的主张把自由化的市场和灵活的价格放在了中心位置,从新一代全球化带来的多重挑战看,这是不够的。必须在新现实的基础上形成全球发展伙伴关系的实际远见,这种新现实要求在开放的全球市场、民族国家的主权以及法制和相关的国际规章之间实现较为公平和有效的平衡。
25. Paradoxically, globalization fears are common in rich and poor countries alike, though for very different reasons. Exports from dynamic Asian economies such as China and India penetrating the world market for certain consumer goods are taken as proof of the dangers that the new global drivers portend, even if the successful firms exporting from these emerging economies are owned by internationally-versatile companies from developed countries. This apprehension is intensified by the increasing offshoring of information technology-driven services to some developing countries and the export of high-technology plants to low-wage locations. The 1.5 billion workers in the emerging economies with small endowments of capital are viewed by some economists and influential politicians in the developed countries as an addition to the existing work force in their economies. This is often simplistically interpreted to imply that the global supply of labour has increased by 50 per cent, which in turn means that, in the last decade, the global capital–labour ratio has halved, thereby creating a new abundance of labour (in particular low-skilled labour), pushing down wages, raising profits and creating upward pressure on interest rates because of the relative scarcity of capital. Hence, a dramatic shift of market power and income to the owners of capital occurs. As a result, the notion of “competitiveness of nations” has acquired a new connotation and greater influence in developed countries, and has even made its mark in international negotiations, including those in the World Trade Organization (WTO). It has created a fundamentally wary attitude towards countries with low wages, and has led to demands for higher social and environmental standards for developing countries.34. 较一般而言,应当承认,常规的经济理论可能无法解决许多贫困民众在全球化世界中面临的所有挑战。经验显示,为经济接轨提出的政策建议造成一些社会面临着以前从来没有遇到过的风险,使这些社会难以承受甚至是最小的外部冲击。十年前,许多亚洲国家知道了过度依赖于内外债融资的危险,付出了代价。泰国应对这场危机的措施在很大程度上依赖于泰国国王多年以来构思的“适足经济”哲学。“适足经济”并不是一种政策方略,而是包含了与日常经济和人类关系有关的普世价值的一种哲学。它强调负责任的消费:量入为出;适可而止;资源的可持续利用,尤其是在农业生产部门;扶持中小型企业的发展;通过内部发展建设能力。值得探讨的是,是否能够把这些原则用于其他发展中国家,帮助它们建立起应对全球化冲击的能力和实现以人为本的发展。
26. For developing countries, the apprehension arises from the slow realization of the gains from trade and liberalization, and the uncertainties and lack of national autonomy associated with fast-moving global markets that are very much driven and steered by the major economies. Lack of diversification of export structures, reliance on foreign direct investment, technological dependence and the slow pace of the process of catching up and reducing absolute poverty are taken as grounds to question the mutual benefits promised by the open market reform agenda. In addition, the integration of the developing countries into the global division of labour during the last decade has not been as smooth as many expected. Financial crises have undermined many promising development programmes and led to traumatic experiences and dependence on international capital markets and major donors. In part due to these concerns, in recent years the imperative of regaining control and widening the scope of national policies has preoccupied the developing countries’ international development agenda.D. 资本流向的背反
27. On closer examination, the reality of the impact of globalization lies somewhere between the divergent fears and points of view presented above. The fears of developed economies about low-wage labour in the emerging South are clearly overstated. Internationally, the mobility of labour is extremely low and the mobility of fixed capital, which should not be confused with short-term financial flows, is rather limited. Consequently, the equalization of factor prices and of labour in particular does not happen overnight. Indeed, from the perspective of many populous developing countries, this is still seen as a frustratingly slow process. The structural change induced by this rather smooth integration has neither impeded growth in the developed world nor forced the kind of shocks that accompanied the rise in unemployment in the industrialized world in the 1970s and 1980s. By contrast, as labour productivity in emerging economies has improved and their domestic income and consumption expanded, demand for products from the rest of the world has increased.35. 到目前为止的一些年来,随着经常项目的转变和发展中国家成为资本净输出国,发达国家成为资本净输入国,全球资本流动扭转了方向。发展中国家作为整体,几十年来第一次实现了对国际资本市场的罕见独立。资本盈余可通过国家货币政策措施用来降低利率,并进一步刺激国内投资。而且,还为目前和未来的“新兴”经济体对流入和流出的(官方和私人)资金、国内资源以及适当的财政和货币政策实行积极的政策管理开辟了新机会。
28. Furthermore, the positive effects stemming from the Asian growth dynamics and spilling over into other regions of the world economy need to be given due consideration. The boom in commodity demand and the rise in commodity prices have offered long-missed opportunities for many commodity producers in the developing world, and have led to significant and prolonged improvement in the terms of trade of these countries. Even Africa as a whole looks back to a half decade of growth rates beyond 5 per cent annually, notwithstanding the adverse external environment for some non-commodity-producing countries. Most importantly, despite externalities such as climate change, it is neither coincidental nor necessarily a transient phenomenon that the performance of the world economy since 2000 has been stronger than at any time in the 30 preceding years. All around the world, growth rates have accelerated and proved to be rather stable over a relatively extended period.36. 正统的发展理论大多认为,这种较贫困国家资本净输出的现象是对国内投资的一种制约。然而,发展中资本输出国加大国内投资力度的现实,却是不可否认的。贫困发展中国家――按理说是资本不足的国家――对富裕的北方――按理说是资本充裕的国家――输出资本,并没有制约这些国家以超过以往30年任何时候的幅度大量投资于固定资本的能力,这个事实对于正统的发展理论提出了新的质疑。这就意味着,对于发展中国家如何能够以最佳方式驾驭储蓄、投资、资本流动(既包括外国直接投资,也包括官方发展援助)之间的功能关系和多种替代政策,以及这类政策多样性为赶超进程提供的道路选择,需要重新思考最为关键的假设。
C.37.
Persistent challenges许多发展流派多年以来坚持的看法是,在较贫困的国家,由于私人住户没有储蓄能力,因此存在着长期的“储蓄缺口”,只能依赖于长期的资本净流入从事赶超。对于这种认识,需要参照所有区域的大量新兴经济体近些年来取得的业绩重新加以研究。在这种业绩及其隐含的更大政策空间背后显然存在的悖论,主要是由具有市场准入的若干(亚洲、拉丁美洲和东欧的)强大发展中经济体驱动形成的,看来对于其他新兴经济体也是可持续和相关的。但是,这对于十分贫困以及其他中低收入国家的更广泛意义,还有待观察。
29. Despite the impressive performance of developing countries as a whole in recent years, many countries, in particular the least developed and other low-income economies, have not been lifted by the recovery, and continue to rely on exports of low value added primary commodities. These countries have suffered from worsening terms of trade, highly volatile world prices and a decline in their share in world trade. The export share of the 50 least developed countries (LDCs), the majority of which are in sub-Saharan Africa and commodity-dependent, fell from 2.5 per cent in 1960 to about 0.5 per cent in 1995, and have since hovered around this level, though the improvement in commodity prices helped raise their share to 0.8 per cent in 2006.38. 无论如何,这些新动态对于发展政策以及开放的全球市场的未来都形成了显著的影响,标示着相互依存关系在最近期的这个全球化阶段中有了一种新的内涵。如果发展中国家有能力创建(和输出)资本,这种内涵就应能减轻发达国家对于发展中国家的离岸外包和资本短缺给其经济带来的冲击所持有的日渐严重的忧惧。正是这几个后一类因素经常被看作是抑制发达经济体工资的向下压力。事实上,随着资本流向的扭转,情况可能并非如此。
30. There is strong evidence that high rates of economic growth have not been translating effectively into poverty reduction in many cases. This is partly related to the fact that agricultural productivity is very low and, with rising populations, average farm sizes are getting smaller, thereby creating a situation where it is difficult to make a reasonable living from the land. More and more people are seeking work outside agriculture. But most LDC economies are simply not able to generate productive employment opportunities for these people. In four fifths of them, non-agricultural labour productivity in the new millennium was lower than it had been 20 years earlier, and agricultural labour productivity actually declined in one third of them.39. 中国和印度这类发展中国家目前所走的道路,同日本和韩国等国30年前争取发展所走的道路相似:在低工资环境下采用高技术,从而降低单位劳动成本,实现赶超。由于采用了这种高生产率与低工资相结合的方法,因此也就能够实现暂时性的垄断租金,进而对通常的国内技术发展不同阶段实现蛙式跳跃,提高整体竞争力。自从在危机驱动之下的贬值纠正了1990年代的汇率错位以来,这种模式进入了全盛时期。对于劳动力和资本过剩的新兴经济体争取发展,同时又避免恶化全球失衡或北方的福祉的长征中需要应对的种种现实,这种政策组合已经证明了它的可行性和相关性。
31. There is also increasing differentiation amongst developing countries within each region of the world, including the LDCs. This trend has been particularly apparent since 1980, but it has intensified recently. Estimates suggest that, in 1980, 64 per cent of international income inequality amongst developing countries (excluding China) could be explained by differences between regions, and 36 per cent by differences within regions. But by 2001 those proportions had almost totally reversed, so that 62 per cent of international income inequality amongst developing countries (excluding China) was explained by differences within regions and 38 per cent by differences between regions.40. 例如,在各国政府和公司的眼界快速扩大的全球化世界中,人们越来越强烈地认识到,国家可以利用直接外资的输入和输出这两者提升本地资源和能力的竞争力。在这两种情况下都能获得外国资产(资源、能力、市场准入、专利、商标、创业技能和机构)。这有利于推动结构变革,从而促进活跃的比较优势,增强一个国家的发展潜力。发展中国家越来越多地结合运用内向和外向直接外资。当然,有些发展中国家在通过对外直接投资利用或取得新资产方面可能处在较为有利的地位,而另一些发展中国家则可能通过鼓励外资进入而更好地发挥自己的竞争力/比较优势,因此,各国的情况很不均衡。例如,在过去二十年中,中国已经从严重依赖外资流入转入了较多利用对外投资的阶段。
32. These estimates reflect the fact that some countries within each region are doing well whilst others have very sluggish growth. In Latin America, for example, recent estimates of changes in the incidence of poverty between 1999 and 2005 show that poverty was clearly falling in six countries (Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Honduras, Mexico and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela), whilst it was clearly increasing in five others (Argentina, Bolivia, El Salvador, Panama and Uruguay). In four other countries for which data are available, there was little change.41. 但也应看到,在中国这个具体的进程中,外国直接投资的份额高于日本和韩国过去的份额。不过,虽然外资流入量日增,越来越多的发展中国家成为了资本净输出国,由此而产生的问题是,这种规模的外资流入是否就是关键,还是随着资本而输入的专门知识更为重要?至于一个发展中国家的厂主是本国投资者还是外国投资者,在资本过剩国是个次要问题。换言之,如果今天的离岸外包融合在一整套发展政策当中,它的作用就不一定不同于过去那种以摹仿和进口技术为驱动的赶超进程。所产生的经济后果对于发展中经济体和发达经济体是大致相同的。显然,直接外资对东道经济体的发展效应取决于一系列因素,包括通过子公司流向国内企业的技术含量,在经济体内创建前向和后向联系,以及对国内投资的影响。
33. The challenge for policymakers is how to promote inclusive development and preserve the main features of the current favourable scenario beyond a cyclical backlash. This requires a new approach to global economic governance as well as a new focus for national policies. The prevailing consensus, putting liberalized markets and flexible prices at centre stage, has proved to be insufficient in the light of the complex challenges that the new generation of globalization poses. A concrete vision of the global partnership for development has to emerge based on the new realities, which call for a more equitable and effective balance between open global markets, the sovereignty of the nation-State, and the rule of law and related international regulations.42. 新兴经济大国的发展速度无疑有助于推动许多国家加快结构变革,无论是发展中国家还是发达国家。对于发达经济体,1960年代日本带来的挑战或1980年代“小虎”带来的挑战今天已经被中国或印度带来的挑战所取代,尽管是一种前所未有的规模。与较早时期一样,低技能就业者的某些部门或群体受到了采用先进机器的国外低工资竞争者的威胁。许多国家的忧惧是,雇主和雇员的调整能力可能难于应付结构变革的速度。失业和低增长率就会随之而来。
34. More broadly, it should be acknowledged that conventional economic wisdom may not have all the answers to the challenges that many poor people face in a globalizing world. Experience shows that policy advice for integration has resulted in some communities being exposed to hitherto unknown risks, making them vulnerable to even the slightest external shocks. Ten years ago, many Asian countries learnt to their cost the dangers of excessive reliance on debt finance, both foreign and domestic. In Thailand, the response to the crisis relied to a large extent on the “Sufficiency Economy” philosophy that the King of Thailand developed over many years. Sufficiency Economy is not a policy prescription, but a philosophy that incorporates universal values of relevance to day-to-day economic and human relations. It emphasizes responsible consumption: living within one’s means; moderation; sustainable use of resources, especially in agricultural production; nurturing the development of small and medium-sized enterprises; and building capacity through development from within. It is worth exploring whether these principles could be applied in other developing countries to help them build up resilience to the shocks of globalization and formulate people-centred development.43. 然而,并没有证据显示,这个进程在过去的十年中危害了一般发达国家的社会安全网或增长业绩。与此相反的结论似乎与真相更为接近。经常项目存在巨额逆差的发达国家,如美国或英国,在增长和创造就业方面的业绩远远好于日本和德国这样的顺差大国,这就清楚地说明,后一类国家业绩不佳另有原因。
D.E.
The capital flows paradox从“调整价格”到“调整发展”
35. For a number of years now, global capital flows have reversed as current accounts swung around and developing countries became net exporters of capital and developed countries net importers. For the first time in decades, developing countries as a group have attained a rare moment of independence from international capital markets. Capital surplus could be used to lower interest rates through national monetary policy measures and has further stimulated domestic investment. It has also opened up new opportunities for current and future “emerging” economies for proactive policy management of inward and outward financial flows (official and private), domestic resources and appropriate fiscal and monetary policies.44. 在1980年代和1990年代,多数发展中国家都实行了以市场为导向的深远改革。国际金融机构在这方面发挥了主导作用,既是对借贷国规定政策附加条件的放款人,又是国际发展议程的定调者。以市场为导向的改革议程的期望基础是,经过激励结构的改进和减少国家干预更高效地配置资源,由此实现资本积累、技术进步和结构变革。这个议程的关键词是,“调整价格”。
36. Most orthodox development theory would consider such net export of capital from poorer countries as a constraint on domestic investment. Yet the realities of rising domestic investment in capital-exporting developing countries cannot be denied. Exports of capital from poor developing countries – supposedly endowed with little capital – to the rich North – supposedly endowed with plenty of capital – have not constrained these countries’ ability to invest larger sums in fixed capital at home than any time in the last 30 years, a fact that poses a new challenge for orthodox development theory. It implies a need for a rethinking of the most crucial assumptions about how developing countries can best manage the functional relation between savings, investment, capital flows (including both foreign direct investment (FDI) and official development assistance) and the alternate policies, and paths that such policy diversity offers for catching up.45. 但是,被称为“华盛顿共识”的这个正统改革议程,从一开始就与一些东亚经济体实现的成功赶超形成了鲜明的反差。这些经济体把资本积累作为发展战略的基础,把务实和积极的产业政策与较为慎重和往往是战略性的接入国际市场及积极主动的宏观经济政策相结合,以此支持其发展战略。
37. The belief, held in many development circles over many years, that poorer countries have a chronic “savings gap”, due to the inability of their private households to save, and can rely only on permanent net inflows of capital to catch up, needs to be re-examined in the light of the recent performance of a large number of emerging economies in all regions. The apparent paradox behind this performance and the wider policy space it implies has been driven mainly by several powerful developing economies with market access (in Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe), and appears both sustainable and relevant to other emerging economies. However, its wider significance for very poor and other lower- and middle-income countries remains to be seen.46. 1990年代下半期,这些国家中有些发生了经济增长业绩的急剧滑坡,尽管时间不长,这种战略因此看上去要站不住脚了。但是,如贸发会议当时指出的那样,造成金融危机的在很大程度上是时机未到就实行的资本项目自由化,这种自由化使这些国家的经济暴露在国际资本市场的多变风险之下。该区域内的其他一些国家对接轨保持了慎重,坚持了主动的政策战略,实现了强有力的经济业绩。随着2000年之后全球经济复苏的铺开,甚至是受到过危机打击的经济体也重新走上了高速增长的道路。
38. Nevertheless, the implications of these new developments for development policy and the future of the open global market are remarkable and point to a new meaning of interdependence during this latest phase of globalization. If developing countries are able to create (and export) capital, this should allay growing apprehensions in developed countries about the impact on their economies of offshoring and capital scarcity in developing countries. It is these latter factors that are often considered to be exerting downward pressure on wages in developed economies. In fact, with reverse capital flows, this may not be the case.47. 在全球经济体系一再发生危机的背景之下,2000年制定的《千年发展目标》反映出,全世界的政策制定者对于在过去二十年的主流条件下取得的发展和减贫进展有一定的不满。2002年,《蒙特雷共识》除其他外确认,发展中国家面临的挑战是,为适足水平的生产性投资创造必要的内部条件,确保为发展本地能力调配辅助性公共投资――过去的改革方案基本上都忽略了这些方面。与此同时,许多发展中国家的政策制定者开始以一连串东亚经济体的成功工业化战略以及现在已经是发达国家的经济体的早先经验为指导,重新思考自己的发展战略。所有这些都证明,对于信守正统改革议程的把握越来越小,并反映出一种共同的结论:成功接轨和持续提高所有人口群体的生活标准和收入,需要有积极的宏观政策、贸易政策和产业政策。
39. Developing countries such as China and India are on a similar path to that pursued by countries such as Japan and the Republic of Korea when they were developing 30 years ago: catching up by applying high technology in a low-wage environment, thereby lowering unit labour costs. The leapfrogging of stages of the usual domestic technological evolution and the improvement of overall competitiveness by realizing temporary monopoly rents are made possible through this combination of high productivity with low wages. This model has come into full swing since the crisis-driven devaluation corrected the exchange rate misalignments of the 1990s. This policy mix has proved its feasibility and relevance to the realities that labour-and-capital-surplus emerging economies need to tackle on the long march to development without actually aggravating global imbalances or welfare in the North.48. 历史证据显示,提高劳动生产力是各国提高人口生活水平的手段。与此联系在一起的是生产和就业部门格局的大规模变革,从农产品转向工业产品,从劳力密集型活动转向越来越多的一系列资本和技术密集型活动。生产结构的改造,需要有能力和有愿望的企业家对国内经济中的新活动进行投资。熊彼特很久以前就指出了创新投资对于经济发展的重要性,最近又有人提出,世界各地自工业革命以来增长业绩非凡,其中相当主要的原因就是创新和随之提高了生产力。
40. For example, in a globalized world in which the horizons of Governments and companies are fast expanding, it is increasingly recognized that countries may use both inward and outward FDI to upgrade the competitiveness of their indigenous resources and capabilities. In both cases, foreign assets (resources, capabilities, access to markets, patents, trademarks, entrepreneurial skills and institutions) are acquired. This facilitates structural change, thereby promoting dynamic comparative advantage and enhancing a country’s development potential. Increasingly, developing countries engage in a combination of inward and outward FDI. Of course, some developing countries might be in a more favourable position to exploit or gain new assets via outward FDI, while others might better advance their competitive/comparative advantage by encouraging inward FDI, so the balance varies considerably between countries. For example, over the course of the last two decades, China has moved from heavy reliance on inward FDI to a relatively greater utilization of outward FDI.49. 投资发挥着关键的作用,因为投资同时生成收入,扩大生产能力并具有对增长进程中的其他要素的强大互补作用,如技术进步、技能获取和体制的深化。但是,创新投资并不是自动发生的,而且可能会遇到结构和体制上的障碍。另外,宏观经济环境可能不适于鼓励和支持争取创建或扩大生产能力和提高生产力的投资者。
41. It is also noted, however, that the share of FDI in this process in China in particular is higher than it was in Japan and the Republic of Korea in the past. However, the fact that increasing numbers of developing countries, despite higher inflows of FDI, are net exporters of capital raises the question as to whether it is the scale of foreign capital import as such that is critical or, more significantly, the import of know-how that comes with capital. Whether the owner of the plant in a developing country is a domestic or a foreign investor is a question of secondary importance in capital-surplus countries. In other words, if integrated within a comprehensive set of development policies, the impact of today’s offshoring need not be different from the impact of former catching-up processes, namely those driven by imitation and the import of technology. The economic consequences are more or less the same for developing and developed economies. Clearly, the development effects of FDI for the host economy depend on a range of factors, including the amount of technological spillovers from affiliates to domestic enterprises, the creation of forward and backward linkages within the economy, and the impact on domestic investment.50. 因此,发展进程的关键就是为创新投资创造必要条件。最重要的条件是,公司能够为投资找到可靠、充分和成本有效的融资来源。如果利润能够成为投资资金的主要来源,为此所付出的代价就最低。实际上,如果能够启动投资-利润关联,创新投资产生的利润就能够同时加强公司的投资动力和企业为新投资融资的能力。
42. There can be no doubt that the pace of development in the big emerging economies can contribute to an acceleration of structural change in many countries, developing and developed alike. For developed economies, the Japanese challenge of the 1960s or the challenge by the “small tigers” of the 1980s is replaced by the Chinese or Indian challenge today, though on a scale not witnessed in previous epochs. As in earlier times, certain sectors or groups of low-skilled workers are endangered by low-wage competitors abroad employing sophisticated machinery. In many countries, it is feared that the pace of structural change could overstretch the ability of employers and employees to adjust. Unemployment and low growth would follow.51. 另一方面,如果企业尤其依靠借贷满足固定投资和运营资本的需要,就像新企业那样,国内货币政策的立场就极其重要,因为高水平的名义和实际利率总是趋于增加生产成本和机会成本。限制性过强的货币政策,有可能使投资决定向金融资产倾斜,或者向成本和需求有已知安排的生产活动固定投资倾斜。因此,有国内竞争力的企业要想成为全球市场上的成功出口企业,就必须具备广泛的一系列条件。
43. However, there is no evidence that this process has endangered the social safety net or the growth performance of developed countries in general in the last 10 years. The opposite seems to be closer to truth. The fact that those developed countries with large deficits in their current accounts, such as the United States or the United Kingdom, do much better in terms of growth and job creation than the big surplus countries, such as Japan and Germany, clearly points to other factors explaining the latter group’s dismal performance.52. 对于投资、生产力增长、成功融入国际贸易和金融体系以及经济发展之间的关联,近些年来是通过国际竞争力的透镜看待的。已经为国家竞争力拟订了广泛的标准和尺度,其中有些已经用于全球国家排名而广为人知。的确,竞争力概念如果与国民收入和国际贸易业绩挂钩,尤其是与从就业和生产力增长角度看十分重要的工业部门业绩挂钩,就有利于更好地了解全球化经济的财富分配状况。在这方面,熊彼特关于资本主义发展是与动态的不完全竞争和生产力增益联系在一起的一个创新投资序列的学说,就包含了竞争力的实现。这种理解,赋予了经济政策为增强生产力的投资提供便利和为高度竞争力提供体制安排的一大作用。
E.53.
From “getting prices right” to “getting development right”据称,以每就业者增加的资本(或体现的技术变革)为形式的新技术处在国家走向富强的发展进程的中心位置。而驱动所体现的技术变革的是,以国内企业家的创新或高效利用输入的资本设备为基础的投资。因此,就经济发展而言的竞争力概念需要考虑到投资、贸易、资金和技术的相互依存关系。关键的问题是,不同的价格、工资、汇率和贸易安排会对创新投资产生什么影响,各个企业的生产力增益是否能转化为总体经济的利益。这些利益可以体现为在保持对外收支平衡的条件下提高生活水平,或者是在维持对外剩余的条件下保持生活水平不变和提高市场份额。
44. During the 1980s and 1990s, most developing countries undertook far-reaching market-oriented reforms. The international financial institutions played a dominant role in this context, both as lenders, imposing their policy conditionality on borrowing countries, and as setters of the international development agenda. The market-oriented reform agenda was based on the expectation that capital accumulation, technological progress and structural change would result from more efficient resource allocation following improvements in the incentive structure and reduced State intervention. “Getting the prices right” was the catchword for this agenda.54. 在国际市场上的竞争力是由实际要素和货币要素两者决定的。如果公司或整个国民经济相对有力的生产力业绩并没有转为工资率的提升,竞争力就可能增强。不过,如果一国的名义有效汇率贬值或工资相对于生产力增长率的增长幅度(即单位劳动成本增长率下降)低于其他国家,实际有效汇率随后贬值也会引起竞争力的提升。
45.55.
However, from the very beginning, the orthodox reform agenda, which came to be known as the “Washington Consensus”, stood in stark contrast to the successful catching-up of a number of East Asian economies that had based their development strategies on capital accumulation, supported by pragmatic and proactive industrial policies combined with more measured and often strategic integration into international markets and proactive macroeconomic policies.但是,应当指出,上述竞争力的政策概念主要涉及的是中收入国家,这类国家经济成功的关键在于能够导致生产力持续提高的投资。这一政策概念对于许多最贫困国家的实用性较低,在这些国家,资本积累有助于更充分地使用利用率不足的劳动力和自然资源,同时不改变利用资源的效率,从而有助于提高人均收入和生活水平。
46. This strategy seemed to falter when, in the second half of the 1990s, some of these countries experienced a dramatic, albeit short-lived, downturn in their economic growth performance. But, as shown by UNCTAD at the time, the financial crisis resulted to a large degree from premature capital-account liberalization, which made their economies vulnerable to the vagaries of international capital markets. Other countries in the region, which had maintained prudent integration and proactive policy strategies, experienced buoyant economic performance. With the global recovery under way after 2000, even the crisis-stricken economies returned to a steep growth path.二、全球决策的连贯性:处于十字路口的多边主义
47. Against the backdrop of recurrent crises of the global economic system, the formulation of the Millennium Development Goals in 2000 reflected a certain dissatisfaction among global policymakers with progress in development and in the fight against poverty under the conditions that had prevailed over the previous two decades. In 2002, the Monterrey Consensus recognized, among other things, the challenge facing developing countries in creating the necessary internal conditions for adequate levels of productive investment and ensuring complementary public investment in the development of local capacities – aspects that had been largely neglected in earlier reform programmes. At the same time, policymakers in many developing countries began to reconsider their development strategies, guided by the successful industrialization strategies of a range of East Asian economies, as well as the earlier experience of the now-developed countries. All of this testified to the growing uncertainly about the commitment to the orthodox reform agenda and reflected a common finding: proactive macro, trade and industrial policies are needed for successful integration and for sustained improvements in the standards of living and incomes of all population groups.A. 全球金融的系统性不平衡和新重商主义
48. Historical evidence shows that countries raise the living standards of their populations by raising labour productivity. This is associated with a substantial change in the sectoral pattern of production and employment, from agricultural to industrial products, and a shift from labour-intensive activities to a growing range of capital- and technology-intensive activities. Transformation of the production structure requires entrepreneurs who are capable and willing to invest in activities that are new to the domestic economy. Schumpeter long ago pointed to the importance of innovative investment for economic development, and it has recently been argued that innovation and the consequent rise in productivity account for much of the extraordinary growth in various parts of the world since the industrial revolution.56. 公司以其他公司为代价获取市场份额是市场机制的一个重要组成部分,但是,如果国家以其他国家为代价获取市场份额,问题就更大了。所有国家可以同时提高生产力、工资和贸易水平以改善其整体经济福利,但是它们不可能同时都提高其市场份额或经常项目盈余。
49. Investment plays a key role because it simultaneously generates income, expands productive capacity and carries strong complementarities with other factors in the growth process, such as technological progress, skills acquisition and institutional deepening. However, the occurrence of innovative investment is not automatic; it can encounter structural and institutional impediments. Moreover, the macroeconomic environment can be inappropriate for encouraging and supporting investors seeking to create or expand productive capacity and increase productivity.57. 因此,令人担忧的是,全球经济中的很多重要参与者正在通过恶性竞争来获取市场份额。国际社会至今没能就可以防止“国与国之间经济战争”的规则达成一致,尽管这些规则从长期来看会起到负面作用。
50. Thus, the key to the development process is creating the necessary conditions for innovative investment. The most important condition is that firms have access to reliable, adequate and cost-effective sources for financing their investments. This is least costly when profits are the main source of investment financing. Indeed, if an investment-profit nexus can be ignited, profits from innovative investments simultaneously increase the incentive for firms to invest and their capacity to finance new investments.58. 这就突显了一种可以被称为“新重商主义”的现象。面临向下压力以提高一国“国际竞争力”的不仅仅是工资和社会贡献。比如,欧洲的很多政府正在减少公司税,并给予公司大量的补贴以吸引公司。同样,像欧盟这样的区域组织或像世贸组织这样的全球性部门机构已经在试图防止此类激烈的竞争,这样的竞争虽然对单个参与者很有吸引力,但是在整个地区却无法成功,因此,世界必须找到方法限制国家之间的这种无谓竞争。
51. On the other hand, when enterprises are heavily dependent on borrowing to meet their needs for fixed investment and working capital, as is the case for new enterprises, the stance of domestic monetary policy is of crucial importance, because high levels of nominal and real interest rates tend to increase production and opportunity costs. An overly restrictive monetary policy may bias investment decisions in favour of financial assets or in favour of fixed investment in production activities with known costs and demand schedules. Hence, a wide range of conditions must come together for firms that are competitive domestically to become successful exporters in the global markets.59. 美国经常项目的巨额逆差(2006年超过8,500亿美元)以及一些发达国家和中国的顺差证明了全球一体化的不安状况。这种状况导致美国国会内部要求采取单方面行动保护美国不被进口品淹没的政治压力不断增加。奇怪的是,尽管有这样的压力和谈判,美国仍然没有制订出果断的行动计划减少中期或长期的不平衡。试图改变货币市场走向的各种努力最终使相关国家实际汇率发生了某些改变,但是这些改变大多没有带来预期的结果。
52. The linkages between investment, productivity growth, successful integration into the international trading and financial systems and economic development have been seen in recent years through the lens of international competitiveness. A wide range of criteria and measures of competitiveness of countries have been elaborated, some of which have been extensively publicized as global rankings of nations. Indeed, the concept of competitiveness can contribute to a better understanding of the distribution of wealth in a globalized economy if it relates to both national income and international trade performance, particularly the performance of industrial sectors that are important in terms of employment or productivity growth. In this context, competitiveness is achieved as part of a Schumpeterian logic of capitalist development being a sequence of innovative investments associated with dynamic imperfect competition and productivity gains. Such an understanding assigns a major role to economic policy in facilitating productivity-increasing investment and providing the institutional arrangements for a high degree of competitiveness.60. 在后布雷顿森林体系的浮动汇率时代,大多数金融危机的特征都是名义利率差和由此而来的证券投资。通常,流入资金的数量大到足以增加高通胀国家货币的短期吸引力,导致货币升值,从而进一步提高投资回报率。
53. New technology in the form of added capital per worker (or embodied technological change) is said to be at the heart of the development process through which nations become rich. And embodied technological change is driven by investment based on either innovation of domestic entrepreneurs or putting imported capital equipment to efficient use. Thus, the concept of competitiveness in the context of economic development needs to take account of the interdependence of investment, trade, finance and technology. The key question is how different price, wage, exchange rate and trade arrangements influence innovative investment, and whether productivity gains of individual firms translate into benefits for the overall economy. These benefits can be reflected in rising living standards while maintaining external balances, or into unchanged living standards and rising market shares while maintaining external surpluses.61. 在明显的系统失灵情况下,高通胀国家的货币升值会破坏“汇率机制”在短期的正常运转。高通胀国家在世界市场上较高的价格无法被名义贬值抵消,升值使该国进一步丧失竞争力,使经常项目状况迅速恶化。
54. Competitiveness in international markets is determined by both real and monetary factors. It may increase as a result of the relatively strong productivity performance of companies or of the national economy as a whole that is not reflected in higher wage rates. But greater competitiveness can also result from a depreciation of a country’s real effective exchange rate following either a depreciation of its nominal effective exchange rate or a smaller rise in wages compared to productivity growth (i.e. falling unit labour cost growth) than in other countries.62. 如果汇率在短期不遵循购买力平价规则,破坏外部账户的稳定,那么把这一规则作为政治目标加以实行就是唯一的出路。尽管用浮动汇率的手段解决对外收支平衡问题是广为接受的唯一可行方法,但是利差交易的存在对这点提出了质疑。因此,向中国施压要求其浮动汇率实际上可能适得其反。由于中国的利率仍然很低,人民币可能被移向利率高的地点,然后发生贬值,接着就会进一步增强中国的竞争力。这样的结果将会加剧全球收支不平衡。
55. It should be noted, however, that the policy concept of competitiveness as outlined above is mainly relevant for middle-income countries, where economic success depends on investment that leads to sustained improvements in productivity.B.
It is less relevant today for many of the poorest countries, where capital accumulation can help raise per capita income and living standards simply by allowing a fuller use of underutilized labour and natural resources without altering the efficiency with which resources are utilized.全球金融多边努力的缘由
II. Coherence in global policymaking: Multilateralism at a crossroads A. Systemic imbalances in global finance and a new mercantilism63. 对小的开放经济体而言,尤其是发展中国家,稳定和繁荣的对外部门至关重要。这就是为什么汇率是这些国家中唯一最重要的价格,因为汇率主导整体竞争力,对一国的价格水平有很大的影响。为了避免通过操纵汇率、工资、税收或补贴争夺市场份额,防止金融市场把各国的竞争地位推向错误的方向,需要制定一个新的关于各国整体竞争力的“行为守则”。
56. Companies gaining market shares at the expense of other companies are an essential ingredient of the market system, but the idea of nations gaining at the expense of other nations is much more problematic.64.
All countries can simultaneously raise productivity and wages and the level of trade to improve their overall economic welfare, but they cannot all together increase their market share or their current account surpluses.这样一个反映全球经济治理新多边主义精神的行为守则必须平衡一个国家的优势和直接或间接地受到影响的其他国家的劣势。比如,偏离基本面(通胀差)的名义汇率变化同关税和出口补贴的变化一样会对国际贸易产生不良影响。因此,这样的实际汇率变化必须服从多边监督和谈判。偏离基本面的原因和偏离基本面的必要幅度必须由一个国际机构确定,并由一个多边的决策机构来执行。只有运用这样的规则,才能使所有的贸易方都避免不合理的竞争力整体减弱或增强,从制度上使发展中国家避免陷入币值高估的陷阱,这在过去一直是阻碍繁荣的最大障碍之一。
57. It is thus worrisome that many important players in the global economy are engaging in a race to the bottom in an attempt to gain market shares.65.
Until now, the international community has not been able to agree on rules that could prevent “economic battles of nations”, despite the fact that they are counterproductive in the long term.任何一个国家的汇率必然都是一种多边的现象,开放型经济体中汇率的任何变化都会产生外部作用和多边影响。这就是为什么合作性全球货币体系的提议和多边贸易体制的提议同样吸引人。和多边贸易体制的目的一样,一个设计周全的全球金融体系必须为所有相关各方创造平等的条件,帮助避免不公平的竞争。避免竞相贬值和对国际贸易体系造成负面影响的其他货币扭曲,在今天这个高度相互依存的世界中比在历史上任何时候都更加重要。
58. This has brought into focus a phenomenon that could be termed the “new mercantilism”. It is not only wages and social contributions that are under downward pressure to improve the “international competitiveness” of a country. Many Governments in Europe, for example, have been reducing corporate taxation and have granted generous subsidies to companies in an attempt to attract them. In the same way as a regional entity such as the European Union or a global sectoral institution such as WTO has tried to prevent this kind of unbridled competition that is attractive for the single player but cannot be successful for the area as a whole, the world has to find ways to limit such unproductive competition of nations.66. 根据其外部融资的需要,发展中国家可以分为两类:有限制地进入或无法进入金融市场的低收入国家(和一些中低收入国家),和可以进入金融市场的中等收入国家(常被称为新兴市场国家)。这两类国家面临不同的挑战。流入第一类国家的外部资金包括优惠贷款、赠款和官方发展援助(ODA)。这些国家的主要挑战是调动足够的资金维持发展和减贫项目。但是,第二类国家可以在国际市场上发放主权债券,其中很多可以越来越多地运用不断发展的国内金融市场。在这种情况下,主要挑战是减少流入这些国家的私人资本的高波动性,或者执行旨在减少这种高波动性的政策。这两类国家要想获得资金,就需要维持增长或者防止丧失最近取得的成就。多边合作比以往更加重要,不论是出于道义、政治,还是金融连贯性的需要。
59. The extraordinary deficit in the current account of the United States (more than $850 billion in 2006) and the surplus of several developed countries and China testify to the unsettled state of the global integration process. This situation is leading to increasing political pressure within the United States Congress to act unilaterally to protect the country from becoming swamped by imported goods. Paradoxically, despite much tension and negotiations, no decisive action plan has been launched to reduce the imbalances in the medium or long term. Diverse attempts to alter the course of currency markets ended in some changes in the real exchange rates of the countries involved, but most of these changes did not lead to the expected outcome.C. 为持续发展提供可持续的资金
60. Most of the financial crises in the post-Bretton Woods era of floating exchange rates have been characterized by nominal interest rate differentials and the resulting portfolio investment.67.
As a rule, the quantity of inflows is big enough to increase the short-term attractiveness of the high-inflation country’s currency, resulting in appreciation, which further raises the return on investment.二十世纪九十年代后半期,官方发展援助减少,但是情况在2002年得到扭转,到2005年,来自发展援助委员会(DAC)和经合组织(OECD)的捐助国的官方发展援助增加到了820亿美元(占发达国家国民总收入(GNI)的0.33%)。尽管出现了由减债和其他特别资金流入推动的最近这种趋势,目前的和预期的官方发展援助水平仍然达不到八国集团到2010年把对非洲的援助增加一倍的承诺,而捐助国作为一个整体,承诺的援助仍然低于国民总收入0.7%的商定目标。虽然对援助持怀疑态度的人就官方发展援助的必要性和影响提出了不确凿的证据和论据,但是至少对那些最不发达的国家和低收入国家而言,官方发展援助仍然是一系列发展和减贫政策及项目的唯一资金来源。
61. In what is a clear systemic failure, a revaluation of the currency of the higher-inflation country fundamentally undermines the normal functioning of the “exchange rate mechanism” in the short term.68.
The high-inflation country’s higher prices on the world market are not offset by a nominal depreciation, and the appreciation adds to the loss of competitiveness of that country and worsens the current account situation rapidly.然而,援助的分配仍然具有选择性和不稳定性的特征。接受援助最多的20个国家获得的援助超过了净双边官方发展援助的一半,不到50%的受援国获得了全部援助的90%,而很多低收入穷国获得的援助非常少。最近增加的援助有一大部分源于《重债穷国倡议》(HIPC)和《多边减债倡议》(MDRI)下的减债。1990年,债务减免占官方发展援助流入的5%,而在2006年占30%。1996年《重债穷国倡议》提出时的一个重要组成部分就是追加性。然而,在1997年,除债务减免的官方发展援助从倡议开始时的水平降到了最低点,从2003年开始,除债务减免的名义官方发展援助才超过1995年的水平,与二十世纪九十年代初的水平相当。
62. If exchange rates do not follow the purchasing power rule in the short term and destabilize the external accounts, the introduction of this rule as a political target is the only way out. The presence of carry trade brings into question the widespread acceptance of floating as the only feasible solution to the problem of the external balance. Thus, the pressure on China to float its currency may actually end up with unexpected results. As China’s interest rates are still rather low the renmimbi could be carried to high-interest-rate locations, and it would then depreciate and further increase China’s competitiveness.. Such an outcome would accentuate global imbalances.69. 一些发展中国家成为国际资本市场的贷方这一事实,反映了国际金融体系目前结构中的更深的矛盾。很多中等收入国家和发展中国家希望能够应对潜在的危机而不需要国际金融机构的支持或遵守它们的政策条件,因而维持定值偏低的汇率和积累国际储备。由于主要的发展中国家通过自我保障或提议用其他机构取代现有机构,所以国际金融机构面临被边缘化的危险,因此这些机构的作用和职能不断受到审查。
B.70.
The case for a multilateral effort in global finance改革现有的机构,使它们符合新的现实,就危机预防机制(如债务可持续性分析)和危机解决机制(如债务重组)达成一致,有助于提高国际金融体系的效率和普遍可信性。捐助国可以发挥重要作用,帮助发展中国家提高它们的债务管理能力,以及它们根据总的公债结构记录和传播信息的能力。
63. For small open economies, and developing countries in particular, a stable and prospering external sector is of enormous importance. That is why the exchange rate is the single most influential price in these economies, as it dominates overall competitiveness and has a strong impact on the national price level. To avoid the fight for market shares through manipulation of the exchange rate, wage rates, taxes or subsidies, and to prevent the financial markets from driving the competitive positions of nations in the wrong direction, a new “code of conduct” is needed regarding the overall competitiveness of nations.71. 在过去的几年中,国际货币基金组织制定了中等收入的市场准入国家的债务可持续性框架(DSF),国际货币基金组织和世界银行共同制定了低收入国家的债务可持续性框架。市场准入国家债务可持续性框架的主要目的,是审查脆弱性和制定旨在降低债务危机可能性的政策,而低收入国家债务可持续性框架的目的还包括引导国际开发协会的赠款分配决定。虽然国内借贷日益增加的重要性往往得到认可,但是大多数的债务可持续性分析仍然偏重于外债。“风险”型债务份量大于“安全”型债务的总负债比率要优于目前的做法。债务结构的更多信息和不同类型债务脆弱性的更多研究可以帮助设计这样一个指标。这将继而通过更好的跟踪债务风险改进债务管理,降低发生债务危机的可能性。
64. Such a code of conduct, reflecting a new spirit of multilateralism in global economic governance, would have to balance the advantages of one country against the disadvantages of other directly or indirectly affected countries. For example, changes in the nominal exchange rate deviating from the fundamentals (inflation differentials) affect international trade in exactly the same way as changes in tariffs and export bounties do. Consequently, such real exchange rate changes have to be subject to multilateral oversight and negotiations. The reasons for the deviation from the fundamentals and the necessary dimension of the deviation have to be identified by an international institution and have to be enforced by a multilateral decision-making body. Only if such rules apply can all trading parties avoid unjustified overall losses or gains of competitiveness and developing countries systematically avoid the trap of overvaluation that has been one of the most important impediments to prosperity in the past.72. 低收入国家债务可持续性框架的一个最重要问题涉及债务下限的使用,债务下限旨在衡量一国债务困境的风险和确定该国是否有资格获得国际开发协会的捐赠。根据该框架,债务可持续性受到一国负债比率及其政策质量(用“国家政策和体制评价”指数(CPIA指数)衡量)的驱动。关于CPIA指数的使用仍然存在一些问题。债务下限是通过计量经济学算出的,由于每一类CPIA指数顶端国家的借贷能力可能被低估,而底端国家的借贷能力可能被高估,因此这种计量经济学方法可能导致次优结果。良好治理和体制的概念本来就是主观的,而且鉴于世界银行也在就治理问题提出建议,该指数可能反映各国执行建议的好坏。另一个关注的问题涉及这个尺度的准确性和用这个尺度衡量不同国家时的一致性,这个指标可能无法为低收入国家和脆弱国家提供适当的激励和奖励。
65. The exchange rate of any country is, by definition, a multilateral phenomenon, and any rate change in open economies produces externalities and multilateral repercussions.73.
That is why the idea of a cooperative global monetary system is as compelling as the idea of a multilateral trading system.此外,债务可持续性框架基于还债至上的理念,没有明确地包括评估实现《千年发展目标》的需要。正如联合国秘书长的千年峰会后续报告所述:“.
In the same way as intended by multilateral trade rules, a well-designed global financial system has to create equal conditions for all parties involved and help to avoid unfair competition......
Avoiding competitive depreciations and other monetary distortions that have negative effects on the functioning of the international trading system is more important in today’s highly interdependent world than at any other time in history.我们就应当把持续承受债务能力重新定义为:一个国家的债务,应无碍它实现《千年发展目标》,并且在进入2015年时,负债率没有上升。”联合国人权委员会等机构还提到了其他应考虑的事项。人权委员会正在起草外债减免的纲要,以确保偿还外债的需要不会削弱实现基本的经济、社会和文化权利的义务。同时,法律界和政界对恶意的债务和负责任的借贷等概念的兴趣越来越大,这给债务可持续性的概念及其目前确定的适用性又增加了一个新的方面。
66. With respect to their external financing needs, developing countries can be divided into two groups: low-income countries (and some lower-middle-income countries) with limited or no financial market access, and middle-income countries with market access (often referred to as emerging market countries). These two groups of countries face different challenges. Most of the external finance that flows to the first group consists of concessional loans, grants and official development assistance (ODA). The main challenge for these countries is to mobilize adequate financing to sustain development and poverty-reduction programmes. The second group of countries, however, can issue sovereign bonds in the international markets, and many can increasingly resort to their own developing domestic financial markets. In this case, the main challenge is to either reduce the high volatility that characterizes private capital flows to these countries or implement policies aimed at reducing the costs of this high volatility. For both groups to obtain the financing, they need to sustain growth or prevent erosion of recent achievements. Multilateral cooperation is more necessary than ever, be it for moral, political or financial coherence imperatives.74. 发展资金的另一个重要特征涉及公司贷款相对于主权贷款日益增加的重要性。1996年,只有20%的长期外债是借给私人借款者的。2006年,这一比例翻了一番,达到41%。公司借款的增加在东欧和中亚尤其重要。2006年,这一地区的公司新借债务达到1,350亿美元,占发展中国家公司债务总额的40%,而1996年至2003年期间平均为19%。东欧和中亚是外债比率最高的地区,占发展中国家和转型国家全球债务存量的三分之一以上。长期债务(7,430亿美元)中,89%借自私人债权人,63%借给了私人借款者。
C.75.
Sustainable financing for sustained development外汇储备的积累(2006年达到5,220亿美元)使该地区的国家在万一未来发生金融或债务危机时处于一个相对安全的地位。然而,更多地依赖国际市场可能使公司借款者面临更高的利率和货币风险,而这种风险也提出了一些政策挑战。其中最重要的就是评估公共部门由于私营部门借贷产生的或有负债。政府需要特别关注国内银行外币借款的迅速增加。虽然没有迹象表明近年来银行部门作为一个整体借款过度,但是东欧和中亚国家的一些银行在国际资本市场大量地借款,并在国内市场借出这类资金。这可能导致银行或最终借款人资产负债表的货币错位,因而增加金融脆弱性。
67. The second half of the 1990s was characterized by declining ODA, but this situation was reversed in 2002, and by 2005 ODA from donors from the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) had risen to $82 billion (0.33 per cent of gross national income (GNI) of developed countries). Despite this recent trend, which was spurred by debt relief and other exceptional flows, the current and projected levels of ODA still fall short of the G-8 pledge to double aid to Africa by 2010, and donor countries as a group are still committing less than the agreed target of 0.7 per cent of GNI to aid. Notwithstanding the inconclusive evidence and arguments presented by aid sceptics as to the necessity and impact of ODA, for many least developed and low-income countries, ODA remains the only source of financing for a range of developmental and poverty-reduction policies and programmes.76. 国际社会将于2008年在多哈开会,审查《蒙特雷共识》在金融、贸易和投资领域做出的一系列承诺的执行情况。这将导致更加关注外债同发展中国家加强金融政策空间的其他新因素之间的相互作用。一个更好地适应新世纪现实的国际金融体系的一个主要目标,应该是发展更加安全的债务工具(如国内生产总值指数债券和初级商品指数债券)。多边机构可以通过政策建议和推动多个国家协调发行这样的工具来发挥作用,设定基准。多边发展银行可以发放偿债时间表和国内生产总值增长相挂钩的贷款,作为倡导把债务偿还和经济状况挂钩的一种方法。新金融体系的结构应该把重点放在危机预防上,但不排除改进后的体系也有遇到危机的可能,因此也就应该包括按照以前提议的国家违约债务重组机制的思路建立危机解决机制。
68. Aid allocation, however, continues to be characterized by selectivity and instability. The top 20 aid recipients received more than half of net bilateral ODA, and less than 50 per cent of aid recipients received 90 per cent of all aid, with many poor low-income countries receiving very little assistance. A large part of the recent increase in aid was due to debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI). Debt forgiveness represented 5 per cent of overall ODA flows in 1990, whereas in 2006 they stood at 30 per cent. A key component of the HIPC initiative upon establishment in 1996 was the notion of additionality. However, ODA less debt forgiveness declined from the start of the initiative to its lowest level in 1997, and only since 2003 has nominal ODA less debt forgiveness risen above the 1995 value to levels comparable to those in the early 1990s.D. 纠正多边贸易体系的不对称
69. The fact that several developing countries have become lenders in the international capital markets reflects deeper inconsistencies in the current structure of the international financial architecture. Many middle-income and developing countries maintain undervalued exchange rates and accumulate international reserves because they want to be able to face potential crises without requiring support from or having to comply with policy conditionality by the international financial institutions. Hence, the mandates and the functionality of these institutions are subject to sustained scrutiny, as they risk marginalization, since major developing countries are making do without them, either by self-insuring or by proposing alternative institutions.1. 处于十字路口的多哈回合
70. Reforming existing institutions in line with new realities and building consensus on crisis prevention mechanisms (such as debt sustainability analysis) and crisis resolution mechanisms (such as debt restructuring) could help in improving the efficiency and universal credibility of the international financial system.77.
Donors can play a major role in helping developing countries improve their debt management capabilities and also their capacity to record and disseminate information on the structure of total public debt.2001年11月启动的多边层面的世贸组织多哈回合贸易谈判旨在提供一个机会,把发展纳入多边贸易体系的主流,纠正体制中现有的不平衡。一个注重发展的结果,即“一个开放、公平、有章可循、可预测和非歧视的”多边贸易体系,是实现《千年发展目标》所必需的。然而,今天这个体系正处在十字路口。
71. Over the last few years, the IMF has developed the debt sustainability framework (DSF) for middle-income market-access countries and the IMF and World Bank have jointly developed a DSF for low-income countries. While the main objective of the DSF for market-access countries is to examine vulnerabilities and devise policies aimed at reducing the probability of a debt crisis, the DSF for low-income countries is also aimed at guiding IDA grant-allocation decisions. Although the increasing importance of domestic borrowing is often recognized, most debt sustainability analyses concentrate on external debt. An aggregate debt ratio where “riskier” types of debt have a higher weight than safer types would be superior to the current practice. Better information on debt structure and more research on vulnerabilities arising from different types of debt could help in designing such an indicator. This would in turn improve debt management and reduce the probability of debt crises through better tracking of debt risks.78. 2005年12月在中国香港举行的世贸组织第六次部长级会议之后,多哈回合进入了最重要的阶段。迫切需要在一些重要问题上找到解决方案,即:农产品市场准入、国内农业补贴、工业品关税和服务业。农业政策方面雄心勃勃的结构调整对于实现一个平衡的、注重发展的结果至关重要。把发展中国家实质性的发展内容和额外的商业机会在合同的基础上包含在多哈回合的最终结果中仍然是必须的。必须满足发展套案的五个关键因素,以确保体制的可信性。
72. The most important issue with the DSF for low-income countries has to do with its use of debt thresholds aimed at measuring a country’s risk of debt distress and determining eligibility for IDA grants. According to the Framework, debt sustainability is driven by a combination of the country’s debt ratios and the quality of its policies (as measured by the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment index, CPIA). Several concerns remain with respect to the use of the CPIA index. The thresholds are calculated by using an econometric exercise that may lead to sub-optimal outcomes, as the borrowing capacity of those at the top of each CPIA category may be underestimated and those at the bottom may be overestimated. The concept of good governance and institutions is inherently subjective and, since the World Bank is also making recommendations on issues of governance, the index may reflect how well countries are implementing that advice. Another concern pertains to the accuracy of the measure and the consistency with which it is measured across countries, and it may not offer the proper incentives and rewards for low performers and fragile states.首先,多哈回合必须实现大大提高和额外增加的实在市场准入,以及发展中国家出口的工业制成品、商品和服务的进入其主要市场,以确保它们能够增长和繁荣。这意味着取消关税、取消关税升级和关税高峰、提供发展中国家参与的服务行业的准入,尤其是模式4和模式1, 以及解决非关税贸易壁垒问题。世贸组织第六次部长级会议上同意的,且仍有待充分执行的持续给予所有最不发达国家的所有产品免关税免配额待遇的规定是这一重点的体现;
73. Furthermore, the DSF is based on the primacy of debt servicing and does not explicitly include an evaluation of needs in respect of reaching the MDGs. As stated in the United Nations Secretary-General’s follow-up Report to the Millennium Summit: “... we should redefine debt sustainability as the level of debt that allows a country to achieve the MDGs and reach 2015 without an increase in debt ratios.” Other considerations have also been cited, for example by the United Nations Commission on Human Rights, which is drafting guidelines for external debt relief to ensure that the need to service foreign debt does not undermine obligations for realization of fundamental economic, social and cultural rights. Meanwhile, the growing legal and political interest in concepts such as odious debt and responsible lending adds yet another dimension to the concept of debt sustainability and its applicability as currently defined.第二,多哈回合应该改进解决和消除现有不对称的多边规则,促进多边贸易体系的公平和公正。大大减少和取消扭曲贸易的农业补贴是为农产品贸易创造公平竞争的环境必不可少的。设定市场开放适当的速度和顺序,以及进行机构和监管改革也是至关重要的,尤其是在服务业方面,同时应辅之以有关政策和对国内供给能力建设的支持;
74. Another important trend in development finance relates to the increasing importance of corporate versus sovereign borrowing. In 1996, only 20 per cent of long-term external debt was owed by private borrowers. In 2006 that share had doubled to 41 per cent. The increase in corporate borrowing has been especially important in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In 2006, firms from this region contracted new debt for $135 billion and they accounted for 40 per cent of total corporate debt of developing countries, up from an average of 19 per cent over the period 1996-2003. East Europe and Central Asia is the region with the highest external debt ratio and accounts for over a third of the global debt stock of developing and transition economies. Of long-term debt ($743 billion), 89 per cent was owed to private creditors and 63 per cent was held by private borrowers.第三,发展层面意味着有经济治理的充足和充分程度的政策自主权,这种自主权使各国能够在世贸组织权利和义务的多边框架内,根据国家发展和公共政策目标有效地管理和调整其国内政策。这应转化为更具操作性的特殊和差别待遇等措施,而不是完全的互惠;保持税收收入;促进国内新兴工业,抢先防止非工业化;保持长期的贸易优惠;维护粮食安全、生计安全和农业发展;允许使用政策和措施促进商品部门的生产、多样化和竞争力;普遍获得基本和基础设施服务;获得基本药品;与执行相关的问题;以及小经济体和脆弱经济体关心的问题。
75. The accumulation of foreign exchange reserves (reaching $522 billion in 2006) has put the countries in the region in a relatively safe position in case of future financial or debt stress. Nevertheless, by relying more on the international markets, corporate borrowers may have increased their exposure to interest rate and currency risk, and this exposure raises several policy challenges. The most important among these is to assess the public sector’s contingent liabilities arising from private sector borrowing. Governments need to pay particular attention to the rapid increase in foreign currency borrowing by domestic banks. Although there are no indications that the banking sector as a whole has over-borrowed in recent years, some banks in Eastern European and Central Asian countries have borrowed heavily in international capital markets and on-lent those funds in the domestic market. This could lead to currency mismatches either in the banks or in the ultimate borrowers’ balance sheets and thus increase financial fragility.第四,国际社会对发展中国家进行调整、承担执行代价、建立贸易相关的基础设施、进行能力建设以利用贸易机会提供发展援助是必需的。在这种情况下,《贸易援助》是贸易体制下贸易自由化的一个必要补充。如果它能提供额外的援助,那么便可以发挥重要的作用――除了改进的市场准入、平衡的规则和健全的国内政策――帮助发展中国家从贸易中持续地获得收益。
76. The international community will come together in Doha in 2008 to review the implementation of the range of commitments made in the areas of finance, trade and investment in the Monterrey Consensus. This should result in greater attention to the important interplay between external debt and other, new elements of strengthened financial policy space for developing countries. A major objective of an international financial architecture better adapted to the realities of the new century should be the development of safer debt instruments (such as GDP-indexed and commodity-indexed bonds). Multilateral institutions could play a role through policy advice and by promoting the coordinated issuance of such instruments by a number of countries to provide benchmarking. Multilateral development banks could issue loans with repayment schedules linked to GDP growth as a way of promoting the idea of indexing debt payments to economic performance. The structure of the new financial architecture should focus on crisis prevention but should not rule out that even an improved system would not be crisis-free and hence should also include mechanisms for crisis resolution along the lines of the now defunct proposal for a sovereign default restructuring mechanism.第五,确保区域贸易协定(RTAs)和多边贸易体系之间的一致性和积极互动至关重要。鉴于区域主义永不停止的趋势,多哈回合强劲的进步和成功的结束是防止多边体制继续受到削弱的最好保障。特别是多哈谈判正在讨论的世贸组织关于区域贸易协定的规则需要澄清和改进,以便更加遵守规则,更好地考虑区域贸易协定的发展方面。
D.79.
Redressing asymmetries in the multilateral trading system世贸组织成员地位的普遍性对于贸易体系的合法性和治理必不可少。因此,29个发展中国家和转型经济国家入世是一项系统性的重点工作。然而,经验表明,加入的发展中国家被要求作出相对深入的自由化承诺和严格的改革承诺,包括超越WTO的承诺。必须确保与加入国贸易、金融和发展需要相称的公平和公正的入世条件,在入世谈判的所有阶段给予更多的支持。
1.80.
Doha at the crossroads国际贸易体系的一个显著特征是,随着八轮多边贸易谈判带来的关税下降,非关税贸易壁垒作为保护和调整贸易的工具的相对重要性有所上升。最常用的非关税贸易壁垒的特性也发生了变化:旨在保护本地消费者的措施有所增加,而旨在保护本地生产者的措施有所减少。在很多发达国家,监管政策现在的重点是保护环境、公共健康和安全,而且对国内市场实施的标准往往要高于目前的国际标准。虽然这些规定没有直接违反世贸组织规则,但是它们为保护主义滥用开辟了道路,而且加大了遵约的成本和代价。
77. At a multilateral level, the Doha Round of WTO trade negotiations launched in November 2001 was intended to offer an opportunity to mainstream development into the multilateral trading system and to correct existing imbalances in the trading regime. A development-oriented outcome is imperative for realizing Millennium Development Goal 8 of “an open, equitable, rule-based, predictable and non-discriminatory” multilateral trading system. Today, however, the system stands at a crossroads.2. 区域一体化协定的增加
78. Following the Sixth WTO Ministerial Conference in December 2005 in Hong Kong, China, the Doha Round has entered its most crucial phase. There is an urgent need to find solutions on key issues, namely agricultural market access, domestic support in agriculture, industrial tariffs and services. Ambitious structural adjustment in agricultural policy is important to enable a balanced and development-focused outcome. It remains imperative that substantial development content with additional commercial opportunities for developing countries be included on a contractual basis in the final outcome of the Doha Round. Five key elements of a development package must be delivered to ensure the credibility of the system:81. 国际贸易体系的另一个显著特征就是区域一体化活动,尤其是区域贸易协定在世界范围内的增加。已在实施的区域贸易协定,包括南南、北北和南北协定,预计到2010年将增加到400个。目前,区域贸易协定伙伴之间的贸易占全球商品贸易的近45%。鉴于区域贸易协定的数量、成员和贸易覆盖面的不断增加,协定将对国际贸易体系产生重大影响。需要仔细关注这些协定的范畴、它们对发展中国家的发展影响,尤其是更深入的自由化的趋势,一个超越WTO的议程,以及一种妨碍与第三方贸易并破坏多边贸易体系的内向型方法。
Firstly, the Doha Round must result in significantly enhanced and additional real market access and entry for developing countries’ exports of manufactured goods, commodities and services in their major markets so as to enable them to grow and prosper. This implies tariff elimination, removal of tariff escalation and peaks, and providing access in services sectors engaged in by developing countries, especially in modes 4 and 1, and addressing non tariff barriers. The provision of duty-free and quota-free treatment to all LDCs for all their products on a lasting basis, as agreed at the Sixth WTO Ministerial Conference, and which remains to be implemented fully, is symbolic of this emphasis;82. 只要管理得当,区域合作可以成为保护最弱的参与者抵御不受约束的市场力量和不可预测的冲击的另一个途径。不能指望区域自由化自身带来重大的发展成果,但是它可以通过把合作延伸到货币和金融领域共同或有效协调的政策、工业发展、基础设施和就业来支持创新的方法。这些领域的有效合作不仅能够推动发展中国家的产出增长和贸易能力,还能加强它们对国际经济治理的影响。
Secondly, the Doha Round should bring about improvements in multilateral rules that address and remove existing asymmetries and enhance the fairness and equity of the multilateral trading system. Substantially reducing and removing trade-distorting agricultural subsidies is indispensable for levelling the playing field for fair competition in agricultural trade. An appropriate pacing and sequencing of market opening, as well as institutional and regulatory reform, are also important, particularly on services, accompanied by flanking policies and support for building domestic supply capacity;83. 西欧和东亚的区域化和工业化之间的紧密结合常被称作一种良性发展道路的一部分。在这个方面,欧盟是区域合作的一个很好的例子,值得其他地区学习。它在体制建设和发展可有效激励发展中国家的正式合作的共同政策方法方面有一些经验。另一方面,在缺乏正式商定的政策合作的基础上出现的东亚的区域一体化为区域层面上的增长和结构变化提供了经验,这有助于找到经济增长的真正推动力量。
Thirdly, the development dimension signifies an adequate and sufficient degree of policy autonomy for economic governance that would allow countries to effectively manage and regulate their domestic economic policies in the light of national development and public policy objectives, within the multilateral framework of rights and obligations under WTO. This translates into such measures as more operational special and differential treatment and less than full reciprocity; preserving tariff revenue; promoting domestic nascent industries and pre-empting de-industrialization; preserving long-standing trade preferences; safeguarding food security, livelihood security and rural development; providing for use of policies and measures to foster commodity sector production, diversification and competitiveness; universal access to essential and infrastructure services; access to essential drugs; implementation-related issues; and concerns of small and vulnerable economies; Fourthly, development solidarity is required from the international community for developing countries for undertaking adjustment and meeting implementation costs, building trade-related infrastructure, and supplying capacity-building for taking advantage of trade opportunities. In this context, Aid for Trade is an essential complement to trade liberalization in the trading system. If it provides for additional aid, it can play an important role – along with improved market access, balanced rules and sound domestic policies – in helping developing countries realize sustained gains from trade; Fifthly, it is important to ensure coherence and a positive interface between regional trade agreements (RTAs) and the multilateral trading system. In respect of the never-ending tide of regionalism, robust progress in and a successful conclusion to the Doha Round is the best guarantee against the continuing erosion of the multilateral system. Specifically, the WTO rules on RTAs, under negotiation in the Doha negotiations, need clarification and improvement so as to improve compliance and better take into account developmental aspects of RTAs. 79. The universality of WTO membership is essential for the legitimacy and governance of the trading system. Accession of 29 developing countries and countries with economies in transition is thus a systemic priority. However, experience has shown that relatively deep liberalization and stringent reform commitments, including WTO-plus commitments, have been requested from acceding developing countries. It is crucial to ensure fair and equitable terms of accession commensurate with the acceding country’s trade, financial and development needs, and provision of increased support in all stages of the accession negotiations. 80. A notable trend in the international trading system is that, with the decline in tariffs as a result of eight multilateral trade negotiations, the relative importance of non-tariff barriers has risen, both as instruments of protection and for regulating trade. The nature of the non-tariff barriers most applied has also changed: measures intended to protect local consumers have increased, while measures meant to protect local producers have declined. In many developed countries, regulatory policy now focuses on protection of the environment, public health and safety, and often includes higher standards for the domestic market than existing international standards. While these regulations do not contravene WTO rules directly, they open avenues for protectionist abuse and also entail greater compliance costs than would otherwise be the case. 2. Proliferation of regional integration agreements 81. Another notable feature of the international trading system is the worldwide proliferation of regional integration initiatives, in particular RTAs. The number of operational RTAs, whether South–South, North–North or North–South, is expected to grow to 400 by 2010. Currently, trade between RTA partners accounts for nearly 45 per cent of global merchandise trade. Given the growing number, membership and trade coverage of RTAs, their impact on the international trading system will be significant. Careful attention needs to be paid to the scope of such agreements and their development impact on developing countries, especially the tendency towards deeper liberalization, a WTO-plus agenda, and an inward-looking approach that hampers trade with third parties and undermines the multilateral trading system. 82. When properly managed, regional cooperation can offer another avenue to protect the weakest participants against unfettered market forces and unpredictable shocks. Regional liberalization cannot be expected to deliver substantial development gains by itself, but it can support innovative approaches by extending cooperation to common or well-coordinated policies in the monetary and financial area, industrial development, infrastructure and employment. Effective cooperation on these fronts could not only enhance developing countries’ output growth and trading capacities, but also strengthen their influence on global economic governance. 83. The close association between regionalization and industrialization in Western Europe and East Asia has often been cited as part of a virtuous development path. In this respect, the European Union is an excellent example of regional cooperation for other regions. It holds certain lessons in terms of institution building and the development of common policy approaches that can usefully inform formal cooperation among developing countries. On the other hand, the regional integration experience in East Asia, which has taken place without formally agreed policy cooperation, provides a lesson of growth and structural change at the regional level, which can be helpful in identifying the real driving forces behind economic dynamics. III. Key trade and development issues in the current global economic environment三、目前全球经济环境中的关键贸易和发展问题
84. The unprecedented pace, scope and scale of globalization described above have not only given rise to new realities but also sharpened or given urgency and renewed focus to some key trade and development issues. Facilitating the quantitative and qualitative integration of developing countries, and countries with economies in transition, into the international trading system requires that these key trade and development issues be identified and that, in the years ahead, their implications for development be assessed, and relevant policies and measures at both national and international levels be elaborated. This chapter will identify a number of such issues, including the new South and South–South trade, energy security, labour mobility, services, commodities, environment and climate change, and technology and innovation.84. 上文描述的全球化前所未有的速度、范围和规模不仅仅带来了新的现实,而且使一些关键的贸易和发展问题加剧或有了紧迫性,并再度使这类问题成为了焦点。促进发展中国家和转型经济国家在量上和质上融入国际贸易体系要求找出这些关键的贸易和发展问题,在未来几年评估它们对发展的影响,并拟订国内和国际层面上的相关政策和措施。本章将提出一系列这样的问题,包括新南方贸易和南南贸易、能源安全、劳工流动、服务、初级商品、环境和气候变化,以及技术和创新。
A.A.
The emergence of the “new South”“新南方”的兴起
85. North–South trade remains important, with the North providing the main markets and sources of imports, investment and technology for developing countries. Conversely, the South is now becoming a major source and destination market for the North, a fact that reflects growing interdependence. Furthermore, what is significant is that South–South trade, in terms of both quantity and quality, has emerged from the periphery of world trade towards becoming a more central and dynamic aspect. Integral to this transformational change has been the rise of the new South – a new breed of dynamically growing trading and investing countries with wide-ranging portfolios and global enterprises. Globalization now has a Southern face too. There has been a marked diversification of export-import baskets and improvement in terms of trade, including through increased complementarities and trade. South–South merchandise trade increased threefold from $577 billion in 1995 to $1.7 trillion in 2005; this raised the South–South share of world merchandise exports to 15 per cent in 2005, accounting for 46 per cent of those countries’ merchandise trade. The manufacturing sector represented a large part of South–South trade, accounting for 42 per cent in 2005, but commodities are becoming dominant and services trade has begun to thrive.85. 南北贸易仍然重要,北方为发展中国家提供主要的市场及进口、投资和技术来源。反过来,南方现在正成为北方主要的来源市场和目的地市场,这一事实反映了相互依存正在增强。此外,重要的是,不论是就质还是量而言,南南贸易已经不再处于世界贸易的边缘,而正成为一个更加中心、更有活力的方面。这一变革的一个组成部分就是新南方的兴起――拥有一系列投资组合和全球企业的蓬勃发展的新一代贸易国和投资国。全球化现在也有了南方的参与。进出口篮子出现了明显的多样化,贸易条件有了很大改善,包括通过更多的互补和互换得到了改善。南南商品贸易从1995年的5,770亿美元增加到2005年的1.7万亿美元,增加了两倍;把2005年南南商品出口占世界商品出口的比重提高到了15%,占这些国家商品贸易的46%。制造业占南南贸易的一大部分,2005年为42%,但是初级商品已经开始占据主导,而服务贸易也开始兴旺。
86. Intraregional trade is the mainstay of South–South trade, but interregional trade has burgeoned, particularly since 2000. Intra-Asian South–South trade accounts for 80 per cent of the Asian region’s South–South trade, but there has been a surge in Asia’s trade with Africa and Latin America, driven largely by its demand for energy, food and industrial raw materials, and its exports of manufactures to other developing regions. While China is a main driver of South–South trade expansion (China–Africa merchandise trade totalled $55.5 billion in 2006), India, Brazil, South Africa and South-East Asian countries are also potential regional and interregional drivers.86. 区域内贸易是南南贸易的支柱,但是区域间贸易也开始成长,尤其是自2000年以来。亚洲内部的南南贸易占亚洲地区南南贸易的80%,但是亚洲和非洲及拉丁美洲之间的贸易有所增加,这主要受到亚洲对能源、食品和工业原料的需求,以及亚洲向其他发展中地区出口制成品的推动。虽然中国是南南贸易扩张的主要推动力(2006年中非商品贸易总额达到555亿美元),但是印度、巴西、南非和东南亚国家也是潜在的区域和区域间贸易的推动力。
87. The implications of this phenomenon for the drivers themselves, other developing countries and the rest of the world are manifold and evolving. The new South’s ascent, capacity and persistent challenges require a realistic assessment and systematic monitoring, so that growth continues and in turn contributes to replication of further successes in those countries and the rest of the South. This can be better ensured with the emulation of the new South’s best trade practices, including in supporting productive capacity, value addition, infrastructure-building and linkages, and transfer of appropriate technologies. Institutional adaptation and innovation at national, regional and global levels are required in order to more effectively tap and realize the development potential of the South.87. 这一现象对于驱动国自身、其他发展中国家和世界其他国家的影响是多方面的,也是逐渐变化的。新南方的崛起、能力和持续的挑战要求现实的评估和系统性的监控,这样增长才能继续,并且有助于在那些国家和南方的其他国家复制进一步的成功。模仿新南方在支持生产能力、增加价值、基础设施建设和联系、转让适当的技术方面的最佳贸易做法,就可以较好地作到这一点。需要进行国家、地区和全球层面的制度调整和创新,以更有效地利用和实现南方的发展潜力。
88. South–South trade is beginning to acquire a critical mass of its own. It will need continuous nurturing through appropriate trade and investment liberalization and facilitation and infrastructure agreements, financing arrangements, macroeconomic and regulatory policy coordination, and consultative mechanisms. Furthermore, the North can play a supportive role, including by providing preferential market access and South–South cumulation in rules of origin to build South–South production and trade chains. Already Northern enterprises have contributed to regional and interregional value and supply chains, and this should no doubt receive a further boost. Aid for Trade packages can be targeted to support South–South trade for a multiplier effect. Enhancement of the South’s individual and collective purchasing power, productive capacity and demand growth is bound to be beneficial for all countries.88. 南南贸易正开始达到自己的临界点。它将需要通过适当的贸易和投资自由化和便利、基础设施协议、融资安排、宏观经济和监管政策协调和协商机制不断地获得养料。此外,北方可以发挥支持的作用,包括通过提供优惠的市场准入和南南原产地规则的累计建立南南生产和贸易链。北方的公司已经为区域和区域间的价值和供应链做出了贡献,但是毫无疑问这还应该获得进一步的推动。《贸易援助》一揽子计划可以被用来支持南南贸易获得乘数效应。增强南方各国各自和集体的购买力、生产能力和需求增长必定将使所有国家受益。
89. The promotion of South–South trade remains a desirable objective because of the market and investment opportunities that it offers to low-income developing countries. Systematic monitoring, research and analysis regarding South–South trade flows are essential in order to identify lessons and best practices that can contribute to replication of positive development experiences and sustain further development of such trade. One way in which UNCTAD could assist South–South interaction is through its research and analysis and by developing and strengthening a South–South trade information system. The continued servicing of the GSTP Agreement and its third round of negotiations by UNCTAD and the implementation of results remain central to UNCTAD’s work on South–South trade. Furthermore, UNCTAD’s support to institutional development for the South-South trade in commodities, services and manufactures and broader economic cooperation needs to be enhanced to meet the emerging need for institutional reforms.89. 由于南南贸易给低收入发展中国家提供了市场和投资机会,因此,推动南南贸易仍然是一个理想的目标。关于南南贸易流的系统性的监控、研究和分析,对于找到有助于复制积极发展经历和维持此类贸易进一步发展的经验和最佳做法非常必要。贸发会议可以帮助南南互动的一个方法就是它开展的研究和分析,以及开发和加强一个南南贸易信息系统。继续为《全球贸易优惠制度协定》及其第三轮谈判提供服务以及执行谈判结果,对贸发会议在南南贸易上的工作仍然十分重要。此外,应当加强贸发会议对南南商品、服务和制成品贸易体制发展的支持,并支持更加广泛的经济合作,以满足体制改革的新需要。
90. A major feature of the new South is the emergence of developing countries as significant sources of investment. In absolute terms, outward FDI flows from developing countries increased – from an annual average of $65 billion in the 1990s to $120 billion in 2005. A small number of home countries are responsible for a large share of these FDI outflows, but companies from more and more countries see the need to explore investment opportunities abroad to defend or build a competitive position. The value of the stock of FDI from developing and transition economies was estimated at $1.4 trillion in 2005, or 13 per cent of the world total. As recently as 1990, only six developing and transition economies reported outward FDI stocks of more than $5 billion; by 2005, that threshold had been exceeded by 25 developing and transition economies.90. 新南方的一个主要特征就是发展中国家作为重要投资源的兴起。从绝对数量来看,从发展中国家流出的外国直接投资有所增加,从二十世纪九十年代的年均650亿美元增加到2005年的1,200亿美元。少数国家占到这些外向外国直接投资的一大部分,不过越来越多的国家的公司发现需要挖掘国外的投资机会,以维护或建立一种有竞争力的地位。2005年,发展中国家和转型经济国家外国直接投资存量的价值估计为1.4万亿美元,占全世界的13%。近在1990年,只有六个发展中国家和转型经济国家的外向直接投资存量超过50亿美元,而到2005年,已有25个发展中国家和转型经济国家超过了这一数量。
91. This has given rise to the emergence of developing country TNCs. Southern TNCs invest proportionally more in developing countries than do their developed-country counterparts. FDI can assist host developing countries in a number of ways, including adding to financial resources and productive capacity, supporting export activity, creating employment and transferring technology. This assists the continuing burgeoning of developing economies and South-South cooperation. FDI by developing-country TNCs can result in proportionally greater gains where their competitive strengths, motives and strategies differ from developed-country TNCs. For example, they are more likely to establish greenfield operations, they more commonly use standardized, non-proprietary technology, and the technological gap between local firms and their affiliates is narrower than the gap with affiliates established by developed-country TNCs. All this augurs well for South-South development cooperation, with the aim of maximizing gains and avoiding pitfalls.91. 发展中国家的跨国公司由此而兴起。与发达国家的跨国公司相比,南方的跨国公司对发展中国家的投资相对更多。外国直接投资可以多种方式帮助发展中东道国,包括增加财政资源和生产能力、支持出口活动、创造就业和转让技术。这有助于发展中国家和南南合作继续发展。在与发达国家跨国公司的竞争优势、动机和战略不同的地方,发展中国家跨国公司的外国直接投资可以带来相对更大的收益。比如,它们更可能建立绿地经营,它们更普遍地使用标准化的非专利技术,而且,当地公司与发展中国家跨国公司子公司之间的技术差距,要小于同发达国家跨国公司建立的子公司之间的差距。这些都有利于旨在实现收益最大化和避免失误的南南发展合作。
B.B.
Energy security能源安全
92. Energy is one of the most important drivers of economic development, especially in the context of increasing globalization, trade growth and the digital revolution. However, access to energy varies dramatically between countries and regions. For example, two billion people in developing countries lack access to electricity and need to be taken out of this energy poverty. Energy demand and uses by developing countries are growing exponentially owing to population growth and economic requirements for building infrastructure, including transport, productive capacity in agriculture and manufacturing, and trade competitiveness. By 2030, developing countries will account for almost half of total energy demand. The International Energy Agency estimates that satisfying global demand requires a cumulative investment in energy-supply infrastructure of more than $20 trillion over the period 2005–2030, with at least half this amount being directed to developing countries.92. 能源是经济发展最重要的推动力之一,尤其是在全球化发展、贸易增长和数字革命的情况下。然而,不同国家和地区对能源的获得有很大的不同。比如,发展中国家有20亿人口无电可用,需要摆脱这种能源贫困。由于人口增长和经济对包括交通在内的基础设施建设、农业和制造业的生产能力、以及贸易竞争力的要求,发展中国家的能源需求和使用迅猛增加。到2030年,发展中国家将占到能源总需求的近一半。国际能源署估计,要满足全球需求,在2005年至2030年期间对能源供应基础设施的累计投资需要超过20万亿美元,其中至少一半要投向发展中国家。
93. Owing to rapid increases in world consumption and geopolitical upheavals, the past few years have witnessed wide fluctuations in oil prices, which reached a record high in the summer of 2006 at $70 a barrel. One obvious effect of this is higher oil import bills. It has also had a greater impact on oil-importing middle-income developing countries, where industrialization has led to greater dependence on oil imports.93. 由于全球消费和地缘政治动乱的迅速增加,过去的几年中,石油价格大幅波动,在2006年夏天达到每桶70美元的历史最高点。由此而来的一个明显影响就是石油进口费用上涨。而且,这对进口石油的中等收入发展中国家造成的影响较大,这些国家由于工业化而加大了对石油进口的依赖。
94. For oil-exporting countries, the main challenge is to invest the surpluses prudently in order to ensure income for future generations and to ensure that the revenue flow does not cause real exchange rate appreciation, weaken competitiveness or lead to overdependence on a single sector. Local participation in both upstream and downstream activities needs to be increased. The impact on oil-importing countries tends to be a greater absorption of export revenues through rising import bills, higher transportation costs and inflation rates, and reduced GDP growth, trade competitiveness and resources for anti-poverty programmes. Oil-importing developing countries, especially LDCs, need to adopt measures that mitigate the effects of oil price peaks through appropriate arrangements and need to be supported by developing partners through appropriate stabilization/compensatory finance funding mechanisms.94. 对石油出口国而言,主要的挑战是谨慎地投资盈余,以确保后代的收入,确保收入流不会引起实际汇率升值,削弱竞争力,或是导致过于依赖某一个部门。当地需要更多地参与上游和下游的活动。石油进口国受到的影响往往是,由于进口成本增加,运输成本和通胀率上扬,国内生产总值增长的减速,贸易竞争力和用于扶贫项目的资源减少,所以不得不用更多的出口收入填补缺口。石油进口国,尤其是进口石油的最不发达国家,需要通过适当的安排采取减少石油价格峰值影响的措施,需要通过适当的稳定/补偿融资机制得到发展伙伴的支持。
95. Diversifying into renewable energy sources is an imperative at national, regional and global levels for economic and environmental sustainability. Awareness of this has pushed energy security and rebalancing of energy mixes high up the trade and development policy agenda of all countries and of the corporate sector. At the global level, the imperatives for creative solutions through R&D and coalitions of energy users and producers for efficient use of energy and renewable energy sources cannot be overemphasized. Increasing adoption of energy efficiency standards will affect production and processing methods in traded goods and services, thus impacting on the trade competitiveness and productive capacities of developing countries. Sustainable energy mixes best suited to each country’s situation and strategic and development-conducive energy portfolios are needed.95. 在国家、区域和全球层面上使用可再生能源对于经济和环境的可持续性必不可少。由于意识到了这一点,能源安全和调整能源结构就被推上了所有国家和企业界贸易和发展政策议程的重要位置。在全球层面,通过研发获得创造性的解决方法,以及联合能源使用者和生产者有效使用能源和可再生能源的必要性,怎么强调都不为过。更多地采用能源效率标准将影响投入贸易的产品和服务的生产和加工方法,从而影响发展中国家的贸易竞争力和生产能力。需要找到和采用最适合各国情况的可持续能源结构和有助于发展的战略性能源组合。
96. Among the products emerging from the search for a new economic model based on low-carbon emissions are biofuels. The biofuels sector has experienced considerable development over the past decade. To ensure that biofuels production and use yield positive environmental and development results, Governments have to develop appropriate strategies on issues such as whether biofuel production is intended for transportation or for broader energy replacement, land requirements and which conversion technology is desirable. The economic and environmental impacts, the compatibility of biofuels with existing fuel delivery/use infrastructures and competing uses for biomass also have to be assessed. Country-based assessments (such as those undertaken by UNCTAD in Guatemala and the jatropha plantation development in Ghana) will help countries to better engage with biofuels and assist them in setting up the required domestic frameworks. For biofuels to make a major contribution to development, it is important that the comparative advantage of the South in this area be recognized and given scope, and that the South be involved in standard-setting.96. 在寻找碳排放低的新经济模式的过程中,生物燃料产品脱颖而出。生物燃料行业在过去的十年中经历了可观的发展。为了确保生物燃料的生产和使用产生积极的环境和发展结果,政府必须就生物燃料生产是为了交通运输还是为了更广泛的能源替代,对土地的要求,以及哪种转换技术更理想等问题制定适当的战略。还需要评估对经济和环境的影响、生物燃料与现有燃料交付/使用基础设施的兼容性、以及生物质的竞争使用。国别评估(如贸发会议在危地马拉开展的评估和加纳的麻风树种植园发展)将帮助各国更好地发展生物燃料,帮助它们建立起必要的国内框架。要想让生物燃料对发展做出重大贡献,就一定要肯定和发挥南方在这方面的比较优势,并让南方参与标准的制定。
C.C.
Mobility and development: Labour integration流动和发展:劳工一体化
97. There are unprecedented and increasing opportunities for labour integration and mobility in the context of trade- and investment-led globalization. This is due to several factors, including growing complementarities between developed and developing countries with respect to demographics and labour force (e.g. an ageing population in developed countries versus a young one in developing countries, skill shortages in developed countries and surpluses in developing countries at all skill levels in key sectors); innovations in transport, telecommunications and ICT which allow easy access to cost-quality competitive labour anywhere in the world (e.g. the outsourcing of business services); the growth of new labour-intensive sectors such as nursing- home and health-care services; and productivity and wage differentials between developed and developing countries.97. 在贸易和投资带动的全球化条件下,劳工一体化和流动的机遇前所未有,越来越多。这种局面的形成有一系列因素,包括发达国家和发展中国家在人口和劳动力方面越来越大的互补性(例如:发达国家老龄化的人口相对于发展中国家年轻化的人口,发达国家缺乏技术工人,而发展中国家在关键领域的所有技术层面上都有剩余);运输、电信和信息通信技术的创新,这些行业很容易在世界任何地方获得低成本、高质量的劳动力(例如:商业服务的外包);养老院和医疗服务等新劳力密集型产业的增长;以及发达国家和发展中国家生产率和工资的差别。
98. With these push and pull factors and the obvious benefits and costs of migration for sending and receiving countries, the challenge is to ensure that there is “gain” rather than “drain” from migration for all as a result of liberalizing the movement of people. The socio-economic benefits to the sending countries include the inflow of remittances and foreign exchange; and the return of skilled workers, which may increase local human capital stock, as well as transfer of skills and links to foreign networks (brain gain and circulation). Remittances have received much attention from sending countries as they are seen as a stable source of development finance.98. 鉴于这些推动和拉动因素,以及劳力移徙给输出国和接受国带来的明显的益处和成本,面前的挑战就是要确保人口流动自由化造成的移徙给所有国家带来的是“收益”而不是“流失”。带给输出国的社会经济益处包括:汇款和外汇的流入;掌握了技术的工人回归,可能增加当地的人力资本存量;以及技术转让和与外国网络的联系(人才引进和循环)。由于汇款被视为发展资金的稳定来源,所以受到了输出国的很大关注。
99. There is a need for more conscious raising of awareness in both developed and developing countries of the actual costs and benefits of labour integration, together with a sustained dialogue between labour and global enterprises. This would include an economy-wide analysis of labour requirements sectorally, both domestic and foreign, and in the short to medium term in order to determine the best policy mix with respect to migration. International cooperation for a better managed migration policy would certainly be useful, including devising rules and regulations on employment and labour, visas, human resource development, structural adjustment policies and social safety nets. Policies could be geared towards better managing movements through regulated entry of temporary workers rather than outright prohibition leading to illegal migration and attendant problems. A meaningful outcome to the Doha negotiations on Mode 4 would provide an important avenue for facilitating legal temporary movement of persons to supply services.99. 发达国家和发展中国家都需要更加有意识地提高对于劳工一体化实际成本和益处的认识,在劳工和全球企业之间需要有持续的对话。这将包括从经济的各个方面对国内外短期到中期的劳动力需求按部门进行分析,以便确定有关劳力移徙的最佳政策组合。为拟订更为得当的劳力移徙政策而进行国际合作显然将很有用,包括制定就业和劳工、签证、人力资源开发、结构调整政策和社会安全网方面的规则和规定。政策可以调整,以便调控临时工人的进入,避免由于简单的禁止而造成非法移民和附带的问题,从而较好地管理流动。有关模式4的多哈谈判如果能产生有意义的成果,就能为便利人员合法暂时流动以提供服务提供一个重要途径。
100. One way of assuaging public opinion in receiving countries and ensuring mutual benefits for both sending and receiving countries is to ensure temporariness of stay. This can include actions such as taxing employers, or requiring them to post bonds for every migrant recruited, or targeted incentives for migrants to return to their home country at the end of the contract, including through refunding their social security and pension contributions. Sending countries need to make maximum use of benefits from remittances and returning migrants; assist in the reintegration of returning migrant workers and stimulate investments; put in place the appropriate infrastructure and incentives; and invest in building the human capital base to mitigate possible negative effects of the movement of highly skilled workers.100. 缓和接受国的公众舆论,确保输出国和接受国共同受益的一个方法是保证居留的暂时性。这可以包括以下行动:向雇主征税,或要求雇主为聘用的每个移徙工人交付保证金,有针对性的激励办法,包括退还移徙工人交纳的社会保障金和养老金,激励他们在合同结束时回国。输出国需要最大限度地利用汇款和归国移徙工人带来的益处,帮助归国移徙工人重新融入社会和刺激投资;建立适当的基础设施和激励手段;以及投资于人力资本基础的建设,以减少高技能工人流动可能带来的负面影响。
101. UNCTAD, together with other international organizations in the Global Migration Group (GMG), will play its part by clarifying issues that lie at the interface of trade, migration and globalization for development in order to better equip policymakers everywhere and to shape public opinion in favour of a greater understanding of the true balance of benefits accruing from labour market integration.101.
UNCTAD believes in the premise that it is a win-win situation for countries that are the origin of labour movements and those that are the destination of such movements, and for the global economy as a whole, if integration is managed by all concerned in an enlightened and cooperative spirit, with pragmatism, realism and a global strategic vision, and without political or cultural prejudice.贸发会议将发挥自己的作用,和全球移徙问题小组(GMG)的其他国际组织一起,阐明处于贸易、移民和全球化交汇点位置的与发展有关的问题,更好地为各地的政策制定者做准备,并且使公众舆论更好地理解劳动力市场一体化所带来益处的真正平衡点。贸发会议认为,如果所有相关方本着开明和合作的精神,从实用主义、现实主义和全球战略视野出发,抛弃政治和文化偏见,对一体化进行管理,那么劳工流动的来源国和此类流动的目的国之间就会形成双赢局面。
D.D.
Services: The new trade and development frontier服务:贸易和发展的新领域
102. Services contribute to economic growth and development through the creation of a competitive economy, providing new jobs, enhancing universal access to essential services and stimulating trade. Services sectors provide the backbone of an integrated and effective economy nationally, regionally and globally. An improved services economy improves performance in merchandise trade as the increased sophistication and availability of producer services enhance international competitiveness in exports of primary and manufactured goods. The informal services sector is also an important aspect of the services economy in developing countries. With globalization, the potential for developing countries to expand and diversify their economies through increased services development and trade has increased immensely. Today, services account for over 70 per cent of employment in developed countries and about 35 per cent in developing countries. World services trade has nearly tripled to reach $2.4 trillion, while the FDI inward stock has quadrupled to nearly $10 trillion in the wake of globalized production of goods and services It is widely acknowledged that increased services trade can generate development gains that cannot be achieved through a narrow focus on exports of primary commodities and manufactures alone.102. 服务业通过创造一个有竞争力的经济、提供新的就业机会、推动普遍获得基本服务和刺激贸易,推动经济增长和发展。服务业是国家、地区和全球一体化和有效的经济的支柱。生产者服务复杂性和可获得性的增加能加强初级商品和制成品出口的国际竞争力,因此,改善服务业经济就能提高商品贸易的业绩。非正规的服务业也是发展中国家服务业经济的一个重要方面。随着全球化的发展,发展中国家通过进一步的服务业发展和贸易来扩大经济规模和实现经济多样化的潜力大大增强。目前,服务业在发达国家占就业人数的70%以上,在发展中国家约为35%。全球服务业贸易几乎增加了两倍,达到2.4万亿美元,而流入的外国直接投资存量在商品和服务全球化生产后增加了三倍,达到10万亿美元。服务贸易的增长可以带来单纯重视初级产品和制成品出口所无法带来的发展收益,这是公认的。
103. Developing countries’ performance in services trade in recent years has been exceptional. Since 1990, services exports from developing countries have grown at an average annual rate of 8 per cent compared with 6 per cent for developed countries. Accordingly, their share of world services exports has climbed to 24 per cent. However, at present the services trade of developing countries is dominated by only a few of those countries. Asian countries account for 75 per cent of all developing countries’ services trade. Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean accounted for 10 per cent and 15 per cent respectively. The top 15 developing country services exporters account for 80 per cent of all developing country services exports. An increasing number of countries are successful in exporting services such as tourism, transport, construction, audiovisual, computer and information services, and business and professional services, particularly through Modes 1 and Mode 4. South–South trade in services is also expanding, and within this trade regional trade agreements play an important role.103. 发展中国家近年来在服务贸易方面表现卓越。自1990年起,发展中国家的服务出口年均增长8%,而发达国家为6%。相应地,发展中国家的服务出口占世界服务出口的比例增加到了24%。但是,目前发展中国家的服务贸易仅为少数几个发展中国家主导。亚洲国家占所有发展中国家服务贸易的75%。非洲和拉丁美洲及加勒比地区分别占10%和15%。最大的15个发展中国家服务出口国占所有发展中国家服务出口的80%。越来越多的国家成功地出口了诸如旅游、运输、建筑、音像、计算机和信息服务、商业和专业服务等服务,尤其是通过模式1和模式4。南南服务贸易也在扩大,在这种贸易中,区域贸易协定发挥着重要作用。
104. However, the potential of services sector development and services trade is yet to be fully realized by many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and LDCs. LDCs continue to be marginalized from international flows of services, with their share in world services exports being about 0.8 per cent. Also, most services in the informal sector are not tradable, a fact that reduces the ability to benefit from trade-led globalization. Positively integrating those countries into the services economy and trade and ensuring that they derive development gains remain a major development challenge. The Doha Round of negotiations on services offers an important avenue for liberalizing services trade in a development-friendly manner and from the perspective of developing countries, specifically through “meaningful” commitments in sectors and modes of export interest to them.104. 然而,众多发展中国家尚未充分发挥服务业发展和服务贸易的潜力,尤其是撒哈拉以南非洲和最不发达国家。最不发达国家仍处在服务国际流动的边缘,它们仅占世界服务出口的0.8%左右。而且,大多数非正规行业的服务是非贸易品,这一事实削弱了从贸易带动的全球化中获益的能力。这些国家积极地融入服务经济和贸易和确保它们获得发展收益,仍然是一大发展挑战。多哈回合关于服务的谈判提供了一个重要渠道,利用这个渠道,可以用有利于发展的方式,从发展中国家的角度,尤其是通过在涉及它们出口利益的行业和模式中做出“有意义的”承诺,实现服务贸易的自由化。
105. At the same time, for services liberalization to generate pro-development outcomes, the proper pacing and sequencing of reform and liberalization are crucial. Establishing regulatory and institutional frameworks that work well and are sound is a precondition for opening up services markets particularly essential services where universal access is vital. In developing countries, regulatory systems are still at an emerging stage, and this poses challenges for policymakers. Hence, there is a need for policy space for countries to go through the trial and error process, which allows them to identify the best policy in the light of their particular economic, social and developmental needs.105. 同时,要想服务自由化产生有利于发展的结果,就必须设定改革和自由化的适当速度和顺序。建立适用和健全的监管和制度框架是开放服务市场的一个前提,尤其是普遍准入至关重要的基本服务市场。在发展中国家,监管体制仍处于初始阶段,这给政策制定者提出了挑战。因此,各国需要政策空间,经过反复试验找出适应它们特定经济、社会和发展需要的最佳政策。
E.E.
Commodities: Sustaining the new growth trend初级商品:保持新的增长势头
106. A majority of developing countries are dependent on the commodity sector as the largest source of revenue and employment for the population and the principal source of external finance (foreign exchange) for development. Some 94 developing countries still derive more than 50 per cent of their export earnings from primary commodities. In addition, the commodity sector is beset by problems related to the workings of the international trading system. Persistent supply/demand imbalances in world commodity markets have been due, in varying degrees across commodities, partly to trade-distorting domestic support and export subsidies in certain industrialized countries. This not only displaces developing country exporters on world markets but also reduces world prices (e.g. cotton). Another factor has been pressures on low-income commodity-producing countries to increase export volumes, even in the face of declining world prices, so as to expand or maintain the level of foreign exchange earnings and thereby sustain debt servicing and import capacity.106. 大多数发展中国家都依赖初级商品部门,这是其人口收入和就业的最大来源,以及用于发展的外部资金(外汇)主要来源。多达94个发展中国家的外汇收入仍有50%以上来自初级产品。此外,初级商品部门还受到与国际贸易体系运作相关的问题的困扰。世界初级商品市场中持续的供需不平衡,部分上是由于某些工业国家的国内支助和出口补贴在不同商品部门以不同程度扭曲了贸易造成的。这不仅降低了发展中出口国在世界市场中的地位,而且压低了世界价格(如棉花)。另一个因素是,低收入的初级商品生产国面临加大出口量的压力,即使世界价格下跌也不例外,只有这样才能提高或维持外汇收入水平,从而保证偿债能力和进口能力。
107. Since 2002 there has been a “commodity boom”, with international commodity prices showing a strong upward trend after their sharp fall from 1995–1997 to 2002. The rise in prices has been driven by the boom in metal and mineral prices, which have increased by 191 per cent, and crude oil prices, which have risen by 140 per cent. Increases for agricultural raw materials and tropical beverages taken as groups averaged 58 per cent and 45 per cent, respectively. Common factors responsible for the price increases include the strong growth in the import demand of developing countries owing to the rapid pace of industrialization, especially in China but also in India and other emerging developing countries; the increased production of biofuels; and emerging supply constraints in some commodity markets. Notwithstanding the recent upward trends, the increases in commodity prices have not been large enough in some cases to offset the severe declines in prices suffered in the past. Expressed in current United States dollars, non-fuel commodity prices are still lower than they were in the early 1980s. In real terms, by the end of 2005 commodity prices were still about 30 per cent lower than the average for the period 1975–1985. Furthermore, low-income commodity-dependent developing countries continue to face difficulties in retaining international market shares.107. 国际商品价格1995-1997年到2002年期间暴跌,以后又显示了强劲的上涨趋势,自2002年起出现了“初级商品热”。推动价格上涨的主要是金属和矿产价格以及原油价格,前者涨幅为191%,后者为140%。农业原材料和热带饮料整体价格分别上涨58%和45%。价格上涨的共同因素包括:迅速的工业化进程导致发展中国家进口需求的强劲增长,中国尤为如此,另外还有印度和其他新兴发展中国家;生物燃料的增产;某些初级商品市场出现了供给制约。虽然最近出现了上涨趋势,但是在某些情况下,初级商品价格的上扬幅度还不足以抵消过去的价格严重下降。以时值美元计算的非燃料商品价格仍然低于八十年代初。按实际价格计算,2005年底的初级商品价格比1975至1985年期间的平均值仍低30%左右。此外,依赖初级商品的低收入发展中国家在维持国际市场份额方面仍然面临重重困难。
108. Nevertheless, with prospects of better prices and stable demand growth for a considerable period of time, perhaps as much as 10 years, commodity-dependent developing countries may be able to generate sufficient finance to invest in their development and poverty reduction programmes.108.
Their success in basing development on commodity production and trade will depend on both the international environment and their ability to undertake, alone or jointly, the necessary institutional changes.然而,在相当长时期内(或许长达十年)价格提高和需求稳定增长的前景下,依赖初级商品的发展中国家可能能够获得足够的资金,投资于它们的发展和减贫项目。它们基于初级商品生产和贸易的发展能否成功,既取决于国际环境,又取决于它们是否有能力单独或联合进行必要的体制变革。
109. Harnessing the present boom in commodity prices for development is an urgent matter for developing countries and the international community. It requires substantial investment in infrastructure and supply-side capacity-building. The AidforTrade initiative could play a critical role in supporting improvements in the competitiveness of traditional commodity sectors, vertical and horizontal diversification in commodity-dependent countries and the mitigation of the short-term impact of commodity “shocks” at the national level, including through the financing of safety net programmes for small and resource-poor producers seriously affected by commodity market instability.109. 为了实现发展而抓住目前商品价格上涨的机遇,是发展中国家和国际社会的一项紧迫任务。这要求大量投资于基础设施和进行供方能力建设。《贸易援助倡议》可以发挥重要作用,支持增强传统初级商品部门的竞争力,帮助依赖初级商品的国家实现纵向和横向多样化,以及通过资助针对受到商品市场不稳定严重影响的缺乏资源的小生产者的安全网方案,在国家层面上减少初级商品“震荡”的短期影响。
110. It is also vital that issues relating to commodities be urgently and adequately addressed at the multilateral level. The Conference on the Global Initiative on Commodities, the first UNCTAD XII preparatory event, held in Brasilia from 7 to 11 May 2007, responded to this urgency by relaunching the commodities agenda from a poverty reduction and development perspective. The Global Commodity Initiative and its outcome represents the basis for an action agenda for a global commodity partnership strategy.110. 必须在多边层面上紧迫和充分地解决与初级商品相关的问题。2007年5月7日至11日在巴西利亚举行的贸发十二大的第一个筹备活动――全球初级商品倡议会议,通过从减贫和发展的角度重新启动初级商品议程对这一紧迫性作出了回应。《全球初级商品倡议》及其结果是制定全球初级商品合作战略行动议程的基础。
F.F.
Environment, climate change and development: The challenges ahead环境、气候变化和发展:未来的挑战
111. Any attempt to promote sustained development and reduce poverty must take the natural environment into consideration, as it is the poor who are most dependent on the natural environment to meet their daily food, health, livelihood and shelter needs. Therefore, the environment qualifies as an important global public good, and the interface between the environment, on the one hand, and trade and development, on the other hand, is a central component of the globalization process. There is in particular a general recognition that increased trade flows that result from globalization have to be accompanied by environmental sustainability and poverty reduction in order to truly achieve sustainable development. Environmental impact is perceived as an increasingly important factor of production that directly bears on production costs, competitiveness and opportunities in international trade.111. 推动持续发展和减贫的任何努力都必须考虑自然环境,因为正是贫困者最依赖自然环境来满足日常的食物、健康、生计和住宿需要。因此,环境可以被认为是一种重要的全球公共物品,而环境与贸易和发展之间的关系是全球化进程的一个重要组成部分。尤其是,人们普遍认识到,全球化带来的贸易流增加必须伴随着环境可持续性和减贫,这样才能真正地实现可持续发展。环境影响被认为是一个越来越重要的生产要素,直接影响国际贸易的生产成本、竞争力和机遇。
112.112.
The trade, environment and sustainable development nexus in the context of globalization renders policy coherence and an enabling environment essential for developing countries to effectively and proactively respond to the challenges and opportunities of climate change and biodiversity, environmental requirements and market access, increasing material efficiency and lowering the pollution intensity of production for export, profiting from export opportunities in environmentally preferable products, and avoiding the tacit import of old/second-hand/prohibited goods into developing countries.全球化下的贸易、环境和可持续发展之间的相互关系要求政策的连贯性和一个有利环境,帮助发展中国家有效和积极地应对一系列机遇和挑战,包括:气候变化和生物多样性、环境要求和市场准入、提高出口生产的材料利用效率和降低污染强度、从无害环境产品的出口机会中获益、避免把废旧/二手/禁止的货物偷运到发展中国家。
113. Climate change is a crucial factor of globalization that currently poses one of the greatest risks to environmental, social and economic development in both the developed and developing countries; it is having profound and irreversible direct and indirect effects that threaten to reverse decades of development efforts. Increasing emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane are causing changes in the global climate systems, with adverse impacts on developing countries and related significant economic costs if no remedial actions are taken. The impacts of climate change are inequitable. Poor countries are hit the hardest and earliest, and yet they account for only a relatively small share of total greenhouse gas emissions. Sectors that are crucial for the livelihood of the poor in developing countries such as agriculture, fisheries, industry, energy and transport are very sensitive to climate change. The introduction of climate response measures through the emerging carbon market and the Kyoto Protocol has trade and development implications, as it affects economic sectors such as transportation, energy use, electricity generation, agriculture and forestry.113. 气候变化是全球化的一个要害因素,目前给发达国家和发展中国家的环境、社会和经济发展带来了一个最大的风险,正造成深远和不可逆转的直接和间接影响。这些影响可能会使发展倒退几十年。二氧化碳和甲烷等温室气体排放的增加正造成全球气候系统的变化,如果不采取补救措施,将给发展中国家带来不利影响和相关的重大经济代价。气候变化的影响是不均等的。穷国最早受到打击,且受到的打击最重,虽然它们只占温室气体排放总量的相对一小部分。对于发展中国家穷人的生计至关重要的产业,如农业、渔业、工业、能源和运输,对气候变化非常敏感。由于通过新出现的碳市场和《京都议定书》引入的气候应对措施涉及到运输、能源使用、发电、农业和林业等经济部门,因此会对贸易和发展产生影响。
114. One persistent environment-related problem, which has direct implications for trade and development, concerns the new environmental, health and food-safety requirements (EHFSRs) on the access of developing country products to key export markets. New EHFSRs are becoming more stringent, frequent, complex and interrelated. This poses serious challenges, but also provides opportunities for export competitiveness as well as sustainable production and consumption methods at national level. There is also a trend towards privatization of many EHFSRs and thus a related tacit alliance between mandatory and voluntary private-sector-set requirements. Governments establish product characteristics and product-related processes and production methods (PPMs), and the private sector follows up by imposing specific non-product-related PPMs to meet the product characteristics. Private standards are widely believed to be outside WTO disciplines, and thus pose challenges in terms of justifiability, transparency, discrimination and equivalence.114. 对贸易和发展有直接影响的一个持续性的环境相关问题,涉及发展中国家产品进入主要出口市场遇到的新的环境、健康和食品安全要求(EHFSRs)。新的环境、健康和食品安全要求更加严格、频繁、复杂和相互交织。这构成了重大挑战,但也为出口竞争力和国家层面上的可持续的生产和消费方法提供了机会。很多环境、健康和食品安全要求还出现了私方化的趋势,因此在强制的和私营部门制定的自愿的要求之间便形成了一种相互联接心照不宣的联盟。政府规定产品特性和产品相关的加工与生产方法(PPMs),私营部门紧随其后,规定特定的非产品相关的加工与生产方法来满足产品特性。私营部门的标准被广泛认为不属于世贸组织纪律范围之内,因此在合法性、透明度、歧视性和等值性方面提出了挑战。
115. The new private-sector-architectured supply-chain requirements tend to marginalize smaller countries and producers. This contradicts pro-poor development strategies and disconnects those most in need of trading opportunities, in particular small farmers. On the positive side, growing consumer demand for environmentally preferable products presents new opportunities for those producers and countries that can produce in more energy-efficient and environmentally friendly ways – and can effectively communicate this fact to consumers. An example is the rapid expansion of organic agriculture markets, with global growth rates of over 12 per cent in the last few decades, compared with overall agriculture market growth. Generally, there is heightened interest in environmentally preferable products, services and production methods since these are the strategic markets of the future. Equally important has been biotrade, providing impetus to this emerging market. Developing countries need to identify and exploit the market niches and opportunities open to them.115. 私营部门制定的新供应链要求倾向于把小国和小生产者边缘化。这与扶助穷人的发展战略相矛盾,抛弃了那些最需要贸易机会的人,尤其是小农。积极的一面是,无害环境产品消费需求的增加,为那些能够以更加节能和环保的方式进行生产,并把这一事实有效地传达给消费者的生产者和国家带来了新的机遇。一个例子就是有机农业市场的迅速扩张,在过去的几十年中,其全球增长率超过了12%,高于农业市场的整体增长。总的来说,对有益于环境的产品、服务和生产方法的兴趣高涨,因为它们是未来的战略市场。同样重要的是生物贸易,它促进了这一新兴市场。发展中国家需要找到和挖掘向它们敞开的市场缝隙和机遇。
G.G.
Technology and innovation for trade and competitiveness用技术和创新增进贸易和竞争力
116. New technologies are a key enabler of globalization. Two features in particular have emerged as burning issues for development. One is that ICTs play a critical role in the fragmentation of the global value-added chain and in shifting parts of production to different geographical locations. This feature has now been extended to the service industry and the delocalization to lower-cost markets. By using ICTs, firms are able to exchange knowledge and information online from anywhere in the world, communicate just-in-time with clients and suppliers, and deliver services efficiently and promptly. Developing countries are increasing their participation in global ICT goods trade. The other feature is that rapidly growing containerization of international seaborne trade has led to technological advances in cargo-handling equipment, the extensive application of IT-based management systems, and transport organization processes in seaports and inland freight terminals. A number of developing countries have anticipated trends in transport services and technologies and speedily adapted to changing requirements. However, problems remain to be solved in the many low-income and vulnerable countries, especially LDCs and LLDCs, where basic transport infrastructure is in urgent need of improvement and where more advanced logistics services and networks can be put in place only with international support.116. 新技术是推动全球化的关键因素。有两个特征尤其成为事关发展的紧迫问题。一个特征是信息通信技术在划分全球增值链和把部分生产活动转移到不同的地理区域方面发挥了重要作用。这一特征现在已经延伸到服务业,并扩大到低成本市场。通过使用信息通信技术,公司能够从世界的任何地方通过网络交换知识和信息,及时与客户及供应商沟通,高效和及时地提供服务。发展中国家正在越来越多地参与全球信息通信技术产品的贸易。另一个特征是国际海运贸易迅速增长的集装箱化带来了货物装卸设备的技术进步,基于信息技术的管理系统的广泛应用,以及港口和内陆货物运输站的运输组织程序。许多发展中国家都预见了运输服务和技术的趋势,并迅速适应了变化的要求。然而,在许多低收入国家和脆弱国家仍然有很多问题要解决,尤其是最不发达国家和内陆发展中国家,这些国家的基本运输基础设施急需改进,只有得到国际支助才有可能建立较为先进的物流服务和网络。
IV.四、加强生产能力、贸易与投资:扶持环境
Strengthening productive capacities, trade and investment:117. 生产能力、贸易与投资是国家和国际经济结构中相互联系、相互加强的组成部分。它们之间有很大的累积性因果关系。要反映这些关系,一个扶持环境就需要通过促进开放和公平环境的政策在全球一级运作,同时还要通过有利于增长、投资和创业精神和有利于技术、创新和就业的政策在国家一级运作。扶持环境还应为包容型发展提供机会,把增长和获得收入的利益扩展到人口中的脆弱群体、贫困者和妇女。
The enabling environment118. 以下诸节说明了扶持环境中的关键问题,首先谈及全球和宏观经济层面,然后论及国家和较微观的经济层面。
117. Productive capacities, trade and investment are interlinked and mutually reinforcing elements of the national and international economic structure. There is a great deal of cumulative causation between them. Reflecting this, an enabling environment needs to operate simultaneously at the global level through policies that promote an open and equitable environment, and at the national level through policies that foster growth, investment and entrepreneurship, as well as technology, innovation and employment. The enabling environment should also provide opportunities for inclusive development, extending the benefits of growth and income earning to vulnerable population groups, the poor and women.A. 全球框架和扶持环境
118.119.
The following sections describe key issues in the enabling environment, beginning at the global and macroeconomic level, and then moving to the national and more microeconomic level.通过打造一个有利于增长和发展的稳定国际金融体系和公平国际贸易体系来促进全球经济治理的政策(如第二节所述),被认为在创造有利于加强发展中国家和经济转型国家生产能力的环境方面具有关键意义。此外,一些国际一级的新的政策事项越来越引起人们的关注。这些事项包括,促进南南合作的政策、国际投资协议和与知识产权相关的问题以及《贸易援助》等倡议。
A.1.
The global framework and the enabling environment南南合作的憧憬
119. Policies fostering global economic governance through the development of a stable international financial system conducive to growth and development and an equitable international trading system, as examined in chapter II, are recognized as critical in creating an enabling environment for strengthening productive capacities in developing countries and transition economies. In addition, a number of new policy issues at the international level are increasingly attracting attention. These include policies fostering South–South cooperation, international investment agreements and issues related to intellectual property rights, as well as initiatives such as Aid for Trade.120. 发展中国家和国际社会以及贸发会议有这样一个重要的机会窗口:它们可在协助发展中国家最大程度地获得全球化的发展利益这一更广泛的努力中对新南方的出现提供支助。在次区域、区域和区域间各个层级上加以协调的、对切实有效和具有连贯性的政策给予的支助,确保着南南贸易和投资的活力能够得以维持并有利于经济和社会的积极发展。
1.121.
The promise of South–South cooperation新南方的出现和南南贸易与投资的活力需要在南南与北南发展对话与合作方面进行体制与规章变化、进行适应性调整和创新。南南自由化需要得到强化和推进,包括通过对南南区域贸易协定加以合理化的方式。在这方面,成功完成全面贸易优惠制第三轮(圣保罗)谈判是南方国家在加强南南贸易优惠制的一个全面工具方面所面临的一项特别挑战。取得谈判的成功,并大幅度提高市场准入程度,将为增加发展中国家之间的跨区域和区域内贸易铺平道路。也需要进行区域一级的研发投资和技术合作,以便为未来的经济关系奠定科技基础。有必要引入和实施贸易和发展融资计划,以满足迅速增长的南南贸易需要。
120. There is an important window of opportunity for developing countries and the international community, as well as UNCTAD, to support the emergence of the new South in the wider effort to assist developing countries in maximizing development benefits from globalization.2.
Support for effective and coherent policies, coordinated at subregional, regional and interregional levels, ensures that the dynamism of South–South trade and investment is sustained and contributes to positive economic and social development.外国直接投资和国际投资协定
121. The emergence of the new South and the South–South trade and investment dynamism demand institutional and regulatory changes, adaptation and innovation in respect of both South–South and North–South development dialogue and cooperation. South–South liberalization needs to be consolidated and pursued further, including through rationalization of South–South RTAs. In that respect, the successful conclusion of the third (São Paulo) round of GSTP negotiations is a singular challenge facing the South in terms of strengthening a global instrument for South–South trade preferences. A successful conclusion with significant market access enhancement will set the stage for increased inter- and intraregional trade among developing countries. Investment in R&D and technological cooperation at the regional level are also needed in order to build the scientific and technological basis for future economic relations. The introduction and the implementation of trade and development finance schemes to meet burgeoning South–South needs are necessary.122. 今天,由于国际投资协定领域中日益增长的多样性和复杂性以及条约义务交错重叠风险的增加,在条款内容和执行能力方面,发展中国家正面临着前所未有的挑战。目前,有2500多项双边投资条约,2700多项避免双重征税条约和240项带有投资条款的双边和区域自由贸易协定。其中,南南协定的数目越来越多,这一事实反映出某些发展中国家作为对外投资来源国的新地位。此外,还有一些多边文书涉及到投资的具体方面(如,《服务贸易总协定》、《与贸易有关的投资措施协定》、解决投资争端国际中心)以及一些也含有投资规则的区域一体化组织(如东盟、东部和南部非洲共同市场、南锥体共同市场、经合组织)。
2.123.
FDI and international investment agreements.结果,与政策连贯性相关的问题越来越走到了政策考虑的最前端,例如,在使一个国家的国际投资协定网络对应于该国的国内法律和经济发展政策以及不同的国际投资协定之间的相互对应方面。对于缺乏制订投资规则方面的专长和谈判能力的发展中国家来说,不连贯性的风险很大。另一个挑战是,怎样平衡外国投资者与东道国之间的权利和利益,交付国际仲裁的投资者与东道国间基于条约的争端数目不断增加,是这一挑战的反映。与此相关的是,是否应在这方面提及公司责任。在任何国际投资协定谈判中,这都是关键性的问题,而且在关于国际投资规则的未来发展的辩论中也居于核心地位。最后,寻找进一步加强国际投资协定对发展的作用的新方法仍然是一个关键性问题。
122. Today, developing countries are facing unprecedented challenges in terms of content and capacity resulting from the growing diversity and complexity of the IIA universe and the growing risk of overlapping treaty obligations. There are currently over 2,500 bilateral investment treaties (BITs), 2,700 double taxation treaties (DTTs) and 240 bilateral and regional free trade agreements with investment provisions. These include a growing number of South–South agreements, a fact that reflects the emerging status of some developing countries as sources of outward investment. In addition, there are the multilateral instruments dealing with specific aspects of investments (e.g. GATS, TRIMs, ICSID) and regional integration organizations that also include rules on investment (e.g. ASEAN, COMESA, MERCOSUR, OECD).124. 在讨论努力确保以更加统一、可预测和透明的方式管理国家之间的国际投资关系的未来前景时,需要涉及到这些问题。
123. As a result, issues related to policy coherence are moving more and more to the forefront of policy consideration, for example in terms of aligning a country’s IIA network with its domestic laws and economic development policies and between the different IIAs. The risk of incoherence is great for developing countries that lack expertise and bargaining power in investment rule-making. Another challenge is how to balance the rights and interests of foreign investors, on the one hand, and host countries, on the other hand, as reflected in the increasing number of treaty-based investor–State disputes submitted to international arbitration. Related to this is the question of whether reference should be made to corporate responsibilities in this regard. These are key issues in any IIA negotiation, and are at the heart of the debate about the future development of international investment rules. Finally, finding new methods to further strengthen the development dimension of IIAs remains a crucial issue.3. 知识产权
124.125.
These issues will need to be addressed when discussing the future prospects for working towards ensuring that international investment relations between countries are governed in a more uniform, predictable and transparent way.知识产权政策试图在所有者利益与公共领域利益之间达成平衡。发展中国家的目前景况十分复杂,因为它们力图根据自己的发展目标来确定最佳平衡,而同时,许多国家正在谈判载有通常会限制国家政策空间的知识产权条款的国际协定并力图遵守这些协定。发达国家和发展中国家都需要更好地理解这一景况的意义,并能够根据其发展目标战略性地利用国际协定给予它们的灵活性,例如世贸组织的《与贸易有关的知识产权协定》。
3.126.
Intellectual property rights传统知识、创新和习惯做法丰富的发展中国家应能从这种资源中受益,特别是以解决以下关注的方式来受益:传统知识、创新和习惯做法正被第三方不适当地加以利用和取得专利,而没得到原来持有人的同意而且也没有公平地分享由此产生的利益。
125. Intellectual property policies attempt to strike a balance between proprietary and public domain interests. The current landscape for developing countries is particularly complex as they seek to determine the optimal balance in the light of their development objectives, while at the same time many countries are negotiating and seeking to comply with international agreements that contain provisions on intellectual property that often restrict national policy space. There is a need for both developed and developing countries to understand better the implications of this landscape, and to be able to strategically deploy the flexibilities that they have under international agreements, such as the WTO Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), in the light of their development objectives.127. 开展国际合作,将知识作为一种全球公共财产加以管理,这需要应对一些挑战。首先,国际社会需要考虑设计一种“最佳的”知识产权制度,用以支持着研究与知识创造以及知识的使用和传播。第二,这种制度应考虑穷国的特别需要,对这些国家来说,利用专利的成本可能过高。最后,需要加强资金或技术合作,以填补发展中国家的科技教育和研究方面的差距。技术转让和知识分享问题对于经济发展来说具有首要的重要性。
126.4.
Developing countries that are rich in traditional knowledge, innovations and practices (TK) should be able to benefit from this resource, notably by addressing concerns that TK is being inappropriately exploited and patented by third parties without the consent of its original holders and without the fair sharing of resulting benefits.《贸易援助》与发展
127. International cooperation for the management of knowledge as a global public good needs to address a number of challenges. First, the international community needs to give thought to the design of an “optimal” intellectual property system which supports research and the creation of knowledge, as well as its use and dissemination. Second, such a system should take into consideration the special needs of poor countries, for which the cost of access to the patent system may be too high. Finally, financial or technical cooperation needs to be reinforced in order to address the gap in science and technology education and research in developing countries. The question of technology transfer and sharing of knowledge is of prime importance for economic development.128. 建设生产能力涉及到发展政策的几乎所有领域,因此,需要以一种多方面的策略处理发展援助问题。由于《贸易援助》能在贸易和建设国内生产能力之间创造一个良性循环,因此也就是启动发展中国家的发展过程、并由此带动经济增长、就业和减贫的一个重要途径。这要求我们更有效地使用官方发展援助,以便对有形基础设施、国家金融系统、国内创业和贸易物流等领域中的先行措施给予支助。这对于最不发达国家来说特别重要,有些最不发达国家尚未对现有的市场准入优惠条款的利益加以利用,而且在没有支助措施建设其生产能力的情况下,也不能受益于这种特惠的扩展。然而,虽然《贸易援助》的概念已被接受,但其操作却仍在酝酿之中。十分迫切的是,应以大量资源支持这一机制,这些资源应是发展援助之外的附加资源,具有可预测性而且不产生债务。
4.B.
Aid for Trade and development促进扶持环境的国家政策
128. Building productive capacity touches on almost all areas of development policy and hence requires a multifaceted approach to development assistance. Aid for Trade is an important way to jump-start the development process by creating a virtuous circle between trade and domestic productive capacity-building, and consequently economic growth, employment and poverty reduction in developing countries. This calls for ODA to be used more effectively to support proactive measures in areas such as physical infrastructure, national financial systems, domestic entrepreneurship and trade logistics. This is particularly important for LDCs, a number of which have not yet tapped the benefits of existing preferential market access provisions, and cannot benefit from an extension of such privileges without support measures for building productive capacities. However, while the concept of Aid for Trade has been accepted, its operationalization is still in the making. It is urgent that the mechanism be supported with substantial resources that should be additional to development aid, predictable and non-debt-creating.129. 加强国内生产能力和筹集资源的政策需要有足够的灵活性,以解决不同的经济、社会和其他方面的发展挑战。这些挑战的多样性不可避免地要求我们采用适当的“政策组合”或“多样政策”,根据每个国家的具体情况因地制宜,而不是采用“一刀切”的方法。这一“政策空间”应给各国设计符合其发展优先任务的政策的自由。然而,有一些各国需要面对的共同主题:
B. National policies to promote an enabling environment能够带来投资、增长、发展和减贫良性循环的、有利于增长的宏观经济政策。在这方面,贸易和产业政策应相互补充,以便在日益尖端的产品方面实现国际竞争力。贸易一体化本身不应被视为一个目的,而应作为进行技术升级和在国内产业间的前向与后向联系这一密切网络基础上增加国内附加值的一种手段;
129. Policies to strengthen domestic productive capacities and mobilize resources need to be sufficiently flexible to address the varying economic, social and other development challenges. The multiplicity of these challenges inevitably calls for an appropriate “policy mix” or “diversity of policies” tailored to each country-specific situation, rather than a one-size-fits-all approach. This “policy space” should give countries the freedom to design policies which are consonant with their national development priorities. There are, however, some common themes that all countries will need to address:结构变化和多样化。大多数发展中国家政府早就认识到进行结构变化和经济多样化的必要性;
Pro-growth macroeconomic policies that set off a virtuous circle of investment, growth, development and poverty reduction. In this respect, trade and industrial policies should be complementary in order to achieve international competitiveness in increasingly sophisticated products. Trade integration should not be seen as an end in itself, but rather as a means for technological upgrading and increasing domestic value-added based on a close net of domestic forward and backward linkages;国家的实效和扶持。新兴工业化国家和其他成功的发展中国家的经验显示,一个注重实效和提供扶持的国家是制定和实施国家发展战略必不可少的条件。这就要求有一个强有力的、政治上稳定的致力于发展的国家,有一个熟练的、受过良好教育的公务员队伍,他们能够确定和实施国家发展战略,这一战略纳入了必要的贸易与投资政策、促进技术开发并建设必要的基础设施。
Structural change and diversification.130.
Most developing country Governments have long acknowledged the need for structural change and diversification of their economies;以下几节重点讨论对投资和经营环境起支持作用的政策、以及基础设施开发、技术和创新问题。
The effective and enabling State. The experiences of the newly industrialized countries and other successful developing economies suggest that an effective and enabling State is a sine qua non for formulating and implementing national development strategies. This entails a strong and politically stable developmental State with a skilled and educated civil service capable of identifying and implementing a national development strategy that incorporates the requisite trade and investment policies, fosters technological development and builds the necessary infrastructure.1. 在贸易与产业政策中注重实际
130.131.
The sections that follow focus on policies supportive of investment and the business environment, as well as infrastructure development, technology and innovation.对于实行积极的贸易与产业政策的经济理由及其可行性,存在着很大的争议。有些争议与对这种政策的效力质疑有关,这些政策过去常常与不成功的“内向型”进口替代战略联系在一起,这些战略对政府干预不加限制而且保护主义倾向很强。这一争议还与这种政策对资源的有效配置可能产生的不利影响有关。然而,成熟的后期工业化国家经济赶超的历史经验显示,一味专注于配置效率意味着对于刺激结构变化和经济增长所依赖的市场活力给予的关注太少。正如世界银行的一项近期研究所论证的,“增长所要求的不仅仅是资源的高效率使用”。对于发展中国家来说,这一说法尤为正确,在这些国家中实现经济增长要求进行动态投资并快速变革生产的结构和技术含量。
1.132.
Pragmatism in trade and industrial policy积极的贸易和产业政策的确不应被理解为内向型的保护主义防卫机制,用来支持生产和就业受到需求不足或受到已将其产品或生产流程成功升级的外国竞争者威胁的那些产业。相反,国家支持政策的作用是加强创新性私营企业和相关的资本形成的领导作用。这些政策应当帮助解决资本形成和生产率提高过程中的信息与协调问题。它们还应确保将累积的生产经验转化为生产率增益。这种产业政策的支持应由贸易政策加以补充,这一贸易政策的目标是实现一个开放型的环境和日趋尖端的产品的国际竞争力。
131. Much controversy persists about the economic rationale for proactive trade and industrial policies, as well as their viability. Some of this is related to a questioning of the efficacy of such policies, which in the past were often identified with failed inward-looking, import-substituting strategies with open-ended government interventions and a strong bias towards protectionism. The controversy has also related to the possible adverse effects of such policies on efficient resource allocation. However, the historical experience of economic catch-up in mature and late industrializing countries shows that exclusive concentration on allocative efficiency implies that too little attention is paid to stimulating the dynamic forces of markets that underlie structural change and economic growth. As a recent study by the World Bank argues, “growth entails more than the efficient use of resources”. This is particularly true for developing countries, where economic growth entails dynamic investment and rapid changes in the structure and technology content of production.133. 近期对过去10到15年的改革方案进行评估得出的另一个教训是,对外来投资、特别是对国内投资的支持,应与适当的法律和监管框架相结合,以保证实现发展增益。在这方面,有必要采用实用的战略视角,以便将外国直接投资纳入到一个更宽泛的、面向结构和技术变革的发展战略之中。
132. Indeed, proactive trade and industrial policies should not be understood as inward-looking, protectionist defence mechanisms to support industries where production and employment are threatened by lack of demand or foreign competitors that have successfully upgraded their products or their production processes. Rather, the role of national support policies is to strengthen the lead role of innovative private enterprises and related capital formation. These policies should help resolve information and coordination problems in the process of capital formation and productivity enhancement. They should also ensure that cumulative production experience is translated into productivity gains. This industrial policy support should be complemented by a trade policy designed to achieve an open environment and international competitiveness in increasingly more sophisticated products.2. 制度在善治中的作用
133. Another lesson from recent evaluations of reform programmes of the last 10 to 15 years is that support for foreign and in particular domestic investment should be combined with an appropriate legal and regulatory framework to secure gains for development.134.
In this context, there is a need for a pragmatic and strategic perspective in order to integrate FDI into a broader development strategy geared to structural and technological change.治理与体制安排是经济发展的关键决定因素,对此,人们的共识越来越大。但对于体制在追循发展目标中到底应发挥什么作用、以及哪种体制安排对于实现这些目标最为适当,人们的一致意见却少得多。
2.135.
The role of institutions in good governance常规经济观点提示我们,体制的主要作用是减少交易成本,以便创造新的市场并使现有市场更有效率地运行。经济政策应由普遍适用型的制度加以支持,尤其是在产权的授予和保护方面,应根据“全球最佳做法”,从发达国家目前的制度架构中引申出这些体制。这一策略的倡导者引证了跨国家分析的经验证据,这些分析一般都发现在体制的质量和经济增长之间存在正相关关系。
134. There is an increasing consensus that governance and institutional arrangements are critical determinants of economic development.3.
But there is much less agreement as to what exactly the role of institutions should be in the pursuit of development objectives, and what types of institutional arrangements are the most appropriate for achieving those objectives.外国直接投资和跨国公司
135. Conventional economic wisdom suggests that the main role of institutions is to reduce transaction costs so as to create new markets and make existing ones function more efficiently. Economic policies should be supported by universally applicable types of institutions, particularly for granting and protecting property rights, in line with “global best practices”, derived from the current institutional set-up in developed countries. Proponents of this approach point to empirical evidence from cross-country analyses, which typically find a positive correlation between the quality of institutions and economic growth.136. 发展中国家和经济转型国家外国直接投资流入量的相对高增长反映出,这些国家继续向外国直接投资开放并向这些投资提供越来越有利的环境。同时,各国日益意识到,有必要调整其政策框架以确保从流入的外国直接投资中获取更大的发展增益。此外,全球经济扩大了知识化程度,在这种条件下,某些国家正在努力将其外国直接投资政策纳入到更宽泛的发展战略之中,将这些政策与贸易、教育、科技和企业发展等重要领域联系起来。
3.137.
Foreign direct investment and TNCs一些发展中国家正日益使用引入的外国直接投资和对外的直接投资来提高本土资源与能力的竞争力以促进其经济的结构改变,从而增强动态的比较优势。例如,发展中国家跨国公司的对外直接投资可获得外国的知识和竞争优势,然后,通过各种机制,母公司和母国可加以吸收。一个好的投资战略承认与(流入的和对外的)外国直接投资相连的风险与局限,并承认外国直接投资不能替代国内投资,而是对实现发展目标所进行的国内努力的补充。
136. The relatively high growth in inward FDI flows to developing and transition economies reflects the fact that these countries have continued to open up to FDI and to provide increasingly attractive environments for such investments. At the same time, countries are becoming more aware of the need to adjust their policy frameworks to ensure greater development gains from inward FDI. With a more knowledge-based global economy, some countries are furthermore seeking to integrate their FDI policies within a broader development strategy, linking them to such important areas as trade, education, science and technology, and enterprise development.138. 外国直接投资领域中最新的关注焦点是,设计可确保外国直接投资服务于发展目标的战略。这不会自动发生,而且需要采用一个综合连贯的方法。主要政策包括以下各方面:(1) 建设一个充满活力的国内企业部门;(2) 处理一些政策和制度领域,例如,首先从制定一个促进投资和创新的制度框架开始;(3) 改善骨干基础设施服务的质量、可靠性和成本效益;(4) 加强经济的技术、人力资源能力和知识基础;(5) 支持国内企业的国际化,因为具有国际竞争力的企业一般更易于吸引外国直接投资并对发展目标作出贡献;(6) 保持竞争性市场;(7) 提高法律和法规的透明度和可预测性及执法的连贯性,同时促进公共服务提高标准和政策落实的效率;以及(8) 在负责政策制定与落实的机构之间创造协同作用并进行有效的协调,尤其是在贸易、企业和投资促进领域。
137. Increasingly, some developing countries are using both inward and outward FDI to upgrade the competitiveness of their indigenous resources and capabilities to facilitate structural changes in their economies, thereby promoting dynamic comparative advantage. For instance, outward FDI by a developing country’s TNC can secure foreign knowledge and competitive advantages, which can then be absorbed by the parent company and the home country through various mechanisms. A good investment strategy is one that recognizes the risks and limitations associated with FDI (inward and outward) and the fact that FDI is not a substitute for domestic investment, but a complement to domestic efforts to meet development objectives.139. 对政策连贯性的强调可能是从正成为跨国公司网络中更重要节点的那些发展中国家汲取的最突出经验之一。在大部分这些国家中,起始点是对于如何将经济转入附加值更高和基于知识的活动之中有一个长期的远景规划。例如,最近,一些亚洲经济体在吸引研发领域中的外国直接投资方面所取得的成功不是什么巧合:这是连贯的、有针对性的政府政策带来的结果,这些政策与时俱进并以加强鼓励创新与知识流入的总体框架为目标。这些国家以某种形式(并在不同程度上)积极吸引国外的技术、专门技能、人员和资本。它们对人力资源进行了战略投资,一般都特别侧重于科学和工程学;还投资于研发基础设施的开发(例如科学园、公共研发实验室和孵化器);在总体战略中使用业绩要求和激励措施吸引外国直接投资进入目标活动;而且还战略性地执行了知识产权保护政策。
138. The new focus of attention in the FDI arena is to design strategies to ensure that FDI serves development aims. This will not occur automatically, and an integrated cohesive approach is needed. Key policies include the following: (1) building a dynamic domestic enterprise sector; (2) addressing a number of policy and institutional areas, starting for instance with the development of an institutional framework that promotes investments and innovation; (3) improving the quality, reliability and cost-competitiveness of backbone infrastructure services; (4) enhancing the technology, human resource capacities and knowledge base of the economy; (5) supporting the internationalization of domestic enterprises, as internationally competitive firms tend to be in a better position to attract FDI and contribute to development objectives; (6) maintaining competitive markets; (7) improving the transparency and predictability of laws and regulations and consistency in their enforcement, while promoting higher standards of public service and efficiency in policy implementation; and (8) creating synergies and effective coordination between institutions that are responsible for policy formulation and implementation, in particular in the areas of trade, enterprise and investment promotion.140. 最后,八国集团的海利根达姆首脑会议有力推动了鼓励在发展中国家进行投资的扶持环境的发展,会议呼吁贸发会议和经合组织为建设一个有利于增加投资和可持续性发展的制度环境拟订最佳做法,这包括进行“投资政策审评”和使工业化国家、新兴经济体和发展中国家进行对话,目标是建立国际共识并传播这方面的最佳做法。在未来几年中,贸发会议将回应这一呼吁,并将协助感兴趣的成员国强化其投资政策框架中的发展层面,为提高从国内外投资中产生的发展利益建设所需要的制度能力。
139. The emphasis on policy coherence may be one of the most striking lessons learned from those developing countries that are now emerging as more important nodes in the networks of TNCs. In most of those countries, the starting point has been a long-term vision of how to move the economy towards higher-value-added and knowledge-based activities. For example, the recent success of some Asian economies in attracting FDI in R&D is no coincidence: it is the outcome of coherent and targeted government policies – evolving over time – aimed at strengthening the overall framework for innovation and knowledge inflows. In some form (and to varying degrees), those countries have actively sought to attract technology, know-how, people and capital from abroad. They have invested strategically in human resources, typically with a strong focus on science and engineering; invested in infrastructure development for R&D (such as science parks, public R&D laboratories, and incubators); used performance requirements and incentives as part of the overall strategy to attract FDI in targeted activities; and strategically implemented IPR protection policies.4. 促进国内企业
140. Finally, the G8 Heiligendamm Summit gave a strong impetus to the development of an enabling environment for investment in developing countries, with a call for UNCTAD and the OECD to develop best practices for building an institutional environment conducive to increased investment and sustainable development, including through Investment Policy Reviews, and through engaging industrialized countries, emerging economies and developing countries in a dialogue aimed at building international consensus and disseminating best practices in this respect.141.
In the coming years, UNCTAD will respond to this call and will assist interested member countries in sharpening the development dimension of their investment policy frameworks and building the institutional capacities needed to enhance the development benefits deriving from domestic and foreign investment.要想从一个全球化程度日益加深和相互依存的世界经济中受益,发展中国家需要有能进行国际化(如,利用出口机会、参与全球价值链和发展工商联系)的强大竞争性企业。各国政府和国际发展界有必要把新的重点放在可帮助发展中国家私营部门、特别是中小型企业增长的政策之上。除了上述国际政策外,必要的国家政策措施包括:
4. Boosting domestic enterprise促进技能开发和创新。加强地方企业的供应能力既需要有好的基础设施(如技术园)又需要开发各种技能,包括生产流程中的技术技能和管理窍门。发扬企业家精神需要进行专门化训练来塑造个人行为和态度,以造就未来的企业新领导人;
141. To benefit from an increasingly globalized and interdependent world economy, developing countries need strong and competitive firms that are able to internationalize (e.g. take advantage of export opportunities, participate in global value chains and develop business linkages). A new focus by both Governments and the international development community on policies that help the growth of the private sector, particularly SMEs, in developing countries is necessary. In addition to the international policies mentioned above, national policy measures required include:改善融资机会,并使金融服务的范围和价格在各个层面都可获得(即为中小型企业和穷人提供银行和信贷服务);
Promoting skills development and innovation. Strengthening the supply capacity of local enterprises requires both good infrastructure facilities (such as technology parks) and the development of a range of skills, including technical skills in production processes and management know-how. Entrepreneurship development requires specialized training to shape personal behaviours and attitudes in order to develop the new business leaders of tomorrow;加强会计和保险行业。会计和保险领域的专业服务是为投资提供便利并为企业发展提供支持的基础设施的关键组成部分。保险服务为投资提供便利、可改善灾难后的经营连续性,而且是贸易的一个要素。金融和非金融性公司会计和报告方面的国际认可良好做法对于企业的发展起着关键作用,它使企业能高效率筹集、配置国内和国际投资资本并对之负责。发展中国家在通过加强专业和监管体制发展高质量会计与保险服务方面需要援助;
Improving access to finance, and the range and price of financial services available at all levels (e.g. banking and credit services for SMEs and the poor);发展工商联系和产业集群。企业发展方面的主要战略是促进全球工商联系和建立产业集群。建立国内中小型企业与跨国公司之间的工商联系是利用新市场、进行技术升级和提高管理技能的有效途径。对在相同产业或互补产业中运作的企业网络之间合作起着促进作用的集群举措可培育一大批当地熟练劳动力,并使决策者能集中处理影响某个具体部门的方方面面问题。
Strengthening the accounting and insurance professions. Professional services in the areas of accounting and insurance are a crucial part of the infrastructure that facilitates investment and supports enterprise development. Insurance services facilitate investment, improve business continuity following disasters, and are an essential element of trade. Internationally recognized good practices in both financial and non-financial corporate accounting and reporting play a key role in enterprise development, allowing an enterprise to efficiently mobilize, allocate and account for both domestic and international investment capital. Developing countries need assistance in developing high-quality accounting and insurance services through the strengthening of professional and regulatory institutions;5. 竞争做法
Developing business linkages and industrial clusters. Key strategies in enterprise development are the promotion of global business linkages and the development of industrial clusters. Building business linkages between domestic SMEs and TNCs is an effective way to access new markets, and upgrade technology and management skills. Cluster initiatives that promote cooperation among a network of firms operating in the same or complementary industries lead to the development of a local pool of skilled labour and allow policymakers to focus on the full range of issues affecting a specific sector.142. 竞争政策在促进竞争力、发扬企业家精神、为市场准入和进入提供便利、提高国际贸易体系的公平性和确保贸易自由化产生发展增益方面起着重要的作用。因此,一个有效的扶持环境必须包括国家竞争政策和国际合作,以应对跨界反竞争做法。遗憾的是,发展中国家在应对含有国际因素的反竞争做法时继续面临着执法困难。因此,帮助发展中国家加强执法能力是一个优先事项。
5.143.
Competitive practices近年来,为应对反竞争兼并和核心卡特尔问题,一些发展中国家考察了这些问题对其市场产生的反竞争影响,并试图对有关公司进行处罚,但却无法执行任何禁令。需要加强在竞争法与竞争政策方面的国际合作,以便应对给发展中国家带来损失的反竞争做法。
142. Competition policy plays an important role in promoting competitiveness, building entrepreneurship, facilitating market access and entry, enhancing the equity of the international trading system and ensuring that trade liberalization generates development gains. Accordingly, an effective enabling environment must include both national competition policies and international cooperation to deal with cross-border anti-competitive practices. Unfortunately, developing countries continue to face enforcement difficulties in addressing anti-competitive practices with international elements. Thus, helping developing countries to strengthen their enforcement capacity is a priority.6. 运输基础设施和贸易便利化
143. In recent years, in response to anti-competitive mergers and hard-core cartels, some developing countries have examined the anti-competitive effects of these on their markets and sought to impose sanctions on the companies concerned without being able to enforce any prohibition order.144.
Enhanced international cooperation on competition law and policy is required in order to address anti-competitive practices that lead to losses by developing countries.基于贸易的全球化进程主要是通过运输与通信领域中的进展取得的。现在的国际供应链已完全纳入了全球生产与分销流程中的分销和存货部分。在这一背景下,进行成本――效益高的贸易交易在物质上、技术上和形式上的所有障碍都应全面加以解决,因而,对运输和储存基础设施与设备等“硬件”方案的投资必须由相应的高效率管理与行政系统加以支持。贸易便利化对于确保海关等贸易监测部门达到国际贸易的效率要求来说极为关键。为了不妨碍国际竞争力,发展中国家的贸易界和公共行政部门在制度上和技术上应与邻国和海外的贸易伙伴国家保持一致。
6.145.
Transport infrastructure and trade facilitation对贸易提供支持的基础设施与服务日益由私营部门提供。海港、机场、公路和铁路的管理经常外包给国家或国际私营公司。由于公共部门撤出了运营,加强行业监测与监管能力的必要性增加了。克服各种非有形障碍以提高现有运输有形基础设施的使用效率,这是应追循的一个主要目标,尤其是在投资资源稀缺的情况下。虽然贸易与运输便利化本身可能不是实现结构变革的充分条件,但它却是一个必要条件,没有这样一个条件,就不能实现就业向新产业的转移和出口带动的经济增长。
144. Trade-based globalization processes have been made possible largely through advances in the areas of transport and communications. International supply chains nowadays fully incorporate the distribution and inventory legs of global production and distribution processes. In such a context, all physical, technological and formal obstacles to cost-effective trade transactions should be addressed in a comprehensive manner, whereby investments in “hardware” solutions such as transport and storage infrastructure and equipment must be supported by corresponding streamlined managerial and administrative systems. Trade facilitation is crucial for ensuring that international trade requirements for efficiency are met by trade-monitoring administrations, such as customs. In order not to hinder international competitiveness, both trading communities and public administrations in developing countries need to be institutionally and technologically aligned with their counterparts in neighbouring and overseas trading partner countries.146. 为确保发展目标得以实现,各国政府必须高度重视运输问题;必要时必须审查和修订法律与监管框架,使私营部门能在更大程度上参与;引入改革措施使运输服务供应商更贴近用户的要求;精简行政管理手续;引入运输业绩指标系统;促进信息技术的使用并加强该部门的培训计划。在理想情况下,这些措施会成为在国家一级或者甚至是在次区域一级实施的一整套连贯方案的一部分,以便充分利用运输部门可在区域一体化中发挥的作用。在国际一级,将政策和监管制度加以统一并协助各国政府设计实现以下目标所需要采取的必要政策措施十分重要:确保创造或加强了运输供应能力并确保贸易商能有效利用自由化和全球化运输市场中提供的运输机会。
145. Trade-supporting infrastructure and services are increasingly provided by the private sector. The management of seaports, airports, roads and railways is often outsourced to national or international private companies. As the public sector withdraws from operations, there is a growing need for strengthened capacity to monitor and regulate the industry. Overcoming non-physical barriers to enhance the efficient use of existing physical transport infrastructure is a major objective to be pursued, particularly when investment resources are scarce. While trade and transport facilitation on its own may not be a sufficient condition for achieving structural change, it is however a necessary condition without which employment shifts to new industries and export-led economic growth will not materialize.7. 技术、创新和知识以及扶持环境
146. In order to ensure that development objectives are being met, Governments must give high priority to transport issues, must review and revise if necessary the legal and regulatory framework to allow greater participation of the private sector, introduce reform measures to make providers of transport services more responsive to user demands, streamline administrative procedures, introduce a system of transport performance indicators, promote the use of information technology and strengthen training programmes in this sector. In an ideal situation, these measures would form part of a coherent package to be applied at the national or even subregional level in order to take full advantage of the role that the transport sector can play in regional integration. At the international level it is important that policies and regulatory regimes be harmonized and Governments be assisted in devising the necessary policy measures required in order to ensure that transport supply capacities are created or strengthened and that traders are placed in a position to effectively take advantage of transport opportunities offered in liberalized and globalized transport markets.147. 在没有技术进步的情况下,资本积累面临着回报的递减。生产技术的改进不断抵消着资本积累的回报递减并能提高劳动生产率,这是以直接(因为技术的改进)和间接(因为这些改进促成了额外的资本积累)两种方式实现的。
7.148.
Technology, innovation and knowledge, and the enabling environment现在已得到确证的是,吸收、传播和创造知识的能力对于可持续性增长与发展来说极为关键,因为知识构成了技术升级和创新的基础。虽然知识在国家一级被视为公共财产,由于知识的跨界传播与获取机会,它也已成为一种全球公共财产。再者,知识对于提供其他公共产品来说极为关键,例如,防止传染病的出现与传播和解决气候变化问题。
147. Without technological progress, capital accumulation faces diminishing returns.149.
Improvements in production technology continually offset the diminishing returns to capital accumulation and generate improvements in labour productivity, both directly because of the improvements in technology and indirectly because of the additional capital accumulation that these improvements make possible.因此,我们面临的挑战是利用知识促进发展,并提供一个扶持环境,鼓励创意和创新及其传播,并使直接或间接参与生产流程的不同行为方得到使用。这要求国内各方携手努力建立制度、建设基础设施并制定政策和监管框架,还需要在国际合作一级进行努力,以便为知识的分享和学习促进创新系统的创造和使用,也就是说,将知识转变成一个全球公共产品。
148. It is now well established that the capacity to assimilate, diffuse and generate knowledge is crucial for sustainable growth and development, since knowledge forms the basis of technological upgrading and innovations. While knowledge is recognized as a public good at the national level, it has also become a global public good owing to its cross-border diffusion and access to it. Furthermore, knowledge is crucial for the provision of other public goods, such as prevention of the emergence and spread of infectious diseases and tackling climate change.8. 信通技术政策
149. The challenge is therefore to harness knowledge for development, with an enabling environment being provided for the production of ideas and innovations, as well as for their dissemination and use by different actors, directly or indirectly involved in the production process.150.
This involves a combination of domestic efforts to develop institutions, infrastructure and a policy and regulatory framework, as well as efforts at the level of international cooperation, in order to facilitate the generation and use of innovative systems for knowledge-sharing and learning – that is, to transform knowledge into a global public good.从信息与通信技术的发展中受益最多的国家,是那些已创造了健全的信通技术扶持环境的国家,这包括有利于通信和有利于信通技术产业发展的贸易与投资环境。有利的国家信通技术政策包括有利于穷人的信通技术战略、法律与监管框架、电子政务的开发、能力建设与人力资源开发政策、以及推广可得、高质量和负担得起的技术与相关内容。
8.151.
ICT policies已出台国家信通技术政策的国家现在需要审查这些政策在国家一级的执行情况和影响力,并对执行信通技术计划(包括制度框架)过程中的成功与失败事例进行分析,以便进行后期调整并修订其信通技术发展计划。定期并与所涉及的不同利益相关者协调审查信通技术计划极为关键。因此,建议发展中国家为进行持续性政策审查、评估和监测工作设计各种机制,将其作为信通技术计划的一部分。国际社会界定的信通技术核心指标可对这一进程有所裨益。
150. Countries that have benefited most from the development of ICTs are those that have created a sound ICT-enabling environment, including a trade and investment environment that is conducive in terms of telecommunications and the development of the ICT industry. Favourable national ICT policies include pro-poor ICT strategies, a legal and regulatory framework, the development of e-government services, policies for capacity-building and human resources development, and the promotion of accessible, high-quality and affordable technology and relevant content. 151. Countries that have already put in place national ICT policies now need to review their implementation and impact at the country level and carry out an analysis of the successes and failures in the implementation of their ICT plans, including the institutional framework, in order to make subsequent adjustments and revise their ICT development plans. Reviewing ICT plans on a regular basis and in coordination with the different stakeholders involved is crucial. It is therefore recommended that developing countries define, as part of their ICT plans, mechanisms for ongoing policy review, assessment and monitoring. Core ICT indicators as defined by the international community can help in this process. V. Strengthening UNCTAD’s role, impact and effectiveness五、加强贸发会议的作用、影响和实效
152. UNCTAD is an integral part of the multilateral development system. As the focal point of the United Nations on trade and development and the interrelated issues of finance, investment, technology and sustainable development, its distinctiveness lies in its treatment of development against the multifaceted challenges arising from the fast-changing world economy and international trade. Over more than four decades in the service of development, UNCTAD has consistently addressed the concerns and endeavoured to advance the interests of all developing countries in the international economic and trading systems. In the context of deepening interdependence between developed and developing countries, as well as among the latter, this unique orientation of the organization will continue.152. 贸发会议是多边发展体系的一个组成部分。作为联合国贸易和发展以及金融、投资、技术和可持续性发展的协调机构,其独特性是,在世界经济和国际贸易迅速变化所产生的多方面挑战的背景下处理发展问题。在40多年来为发展而服务的过程中,贸发会议始终处理所有发展中国家在国际经济和贸易体系中的关切并努力促进它们的利益。就发达国家与发展中国家之间互相依存以及发展中国家之间互相依存日益加深来说,该组织的这一独特工作方向将继续保持下去。
153. Enhancing UNCTAD’s institutional effectiveness is a continuous process. The key aim is to keep the organization fit so that it can make the maximum contribution to the multilateral development system by promoting the economic advancement of developing countries. Since UNCTAD XI, the institutional aspects of UNCTAD’s work – involving the three pillars of research and analysis, intergovernmental work and technical cooperation – have been taken up within the context of two distinct but complementary processes.153. 提高贸发会议体制的实效是一个持续性的工作。关键目标是保持本组织的适应能力,从而能够促进发展中国家经济发展,对多边发展体系作出最大的贡献。自从贸发十一大以来,已经在两个不同但互补的进程中处理了贸发会议工作的体制问题――涉及研究和分析、政府间工作与技术援助三个支柱。
154. At the mid-term review conducted by the Trade and Development Board in 2006, member States made recommendations on all three pillars. In addition, a panel of eminent persons was established in 2005 to advise on enhancing the development role and impact of UNCTAD. At its forty-first executive session, in April 2007, the Board endorsed a number of the panel’s recommendations, and implementation of these has begun. The Board also decided to pursue its consultations on those recommendations on which conceptual convergence emerged.154. 在贸易和发展理事会2006年开展的中期审查中,成员国对全部三个支柱都提出了建议。另外,2005年设立了一个名人专家组,就提高贸发会议在发展方面的作用和影响提出建议。在2007年4月的第四十一届执行会议上,理事会批准了专家组的一些建议,开始了这些建议的落实工作。理事会也决定就存在着观念共识的建议开展磋商。
155. At the same session, the Board decided that one of the sub-themes of UNCTAD XII would be “Strengthening UNCTAD: enhancing its development role, impact and institutional effectiveness”.155.
The inclusion of this sub-theme in the agenda of the Conference is a clear indication of member States’ desire to further strengthen the organization’s contribution to development.在同一届会议上,理事会决定,贸发十二大的一个次级专题将是“加强贸发会议:加强其在发展方面的作用、影响和体制实效”。在贸发会议议程中纳入这一次专题,明显表明各成员国希望进一步加强本组织对发展的贡献。
A.A.
Improving the working methods of UNCTAD改进贸发会议的工作方法
1.1.
Research and analysis研究和分析
156. UNCTAD is primarily a knowledge organization, with research and analysis at its core. Further strengthening UNCTAD’s research and analysis will involve a multi-point strategy aimed at sharpening its policy-orientation, with greater attention to the implications of a resurgent South for development, international economic cooperation and systemic issues. Greater emphasis will be paid to the country dimension, the capacity to respond quickly to emerging and new issues, and improved outreach. To that end, mobilizing adequate resources for research and analysis will be an important consideration.156. 贸发会议首先是一个以研究和分析为主的知识型组织。进一步加强贸发会议的研究和分析能力将涉及多种战略,以强化其政策重点,更多地关注南方复兴对于发展、国际经济合作和制度性问题的影响。将更多地注意国家层面的问题,对正出现的和新的问题迅速作出反应的能力以及加大对外联系。为此,一个重要因素将是为研究和分析而筹集适足资源。
157. A primary goal of research in an intergovernmental organization is to provide policymakers with sound and realistic policy choices. To that end, UNCTAD’s research will continue to be policy-oriented, focusing more sharply on providing genuinely development-oriented policy options at the national, regional and international levels, as well as on systemic issues affecting development. Besides the continued treatment of medium- and long-term issues, it should be possible during each four-year conference cycle to identify a body of innovative and practical policy recommendations on new and emerging issues arising from UNCTAD’s research effort.157. 政府间组织研究工作的一个首要目的,是向决策者提供明智可靠的政策选择。为此,贸发会议的研究将继续以政策为主,更明确地侧重于提供国家、区域和国际层面上真正以发展为方向的政策选择,并侧重于影响发展的制度性问题。除了继续处理中期和长期问题,在每四年一次的会议周期中,它应当有可能根据贸发会议研究工作而确定一套关于新的和正出现问题的创新和务实的政策建议。
158. There is now clear convergence on a view long held by UNCTAD that development is not a linear process amenable to a standardized set of policy prescriptions. The fact at one size does not fit all warrants greater attention in UNCTAD’s research to the specific situation in different countries, with a view to enhancing the development impact of UNCTAD’s work. To further account for country experiences, research and analysis will place greater emphasis on country case studies and country-specific policy reviews. In the case of the latter, UNCTAD has considerable experience in investment policy reviews, and this approach should be extended to other areas, such as trade and commodities.158. 现在对贸发会议长期所持的一个观点有着明确的共识,即发展不是一个可依赖于一套标准化政策处方的线性进程。一个号码的鞋适合不了所有的脚,这要求贸发会议的研究应更多关注不同国家的具体情况,以加强贸发会议的工作在发展方面的影响。为进一步记述各国的经验,研究和分析将更注重国别案例研究和国别政策审评。在后一情况下,贸发会议在投资政策审评方面有相当多的经验,应当将这一方法扩展到其他领域,如贸易和初级商品。
159. Another way in which UNCTAD can increase its impact is to develop a capacity to respond rapidly to emerging issues in order to make its analysis and policy recommendations available to member States and other stakeholders “in real time”.159.
This should help member States to deal more effectively with challenges such as global economic imbalances, financial crises, the trade and developmental aspects of post-conflict reconstruction and recovery, and the economic implications of phenomena such as pandemics or climate change.可加强贸发会议影响的另一个方式是培养对新出现的问题作出迅速反应的能力,以“实时”向各成员国和其他利益相关者提供分析和政策建议。这应有助于成员国更有效地处理各种挑战,比如全球经济不平衡、金融危机、冲突后重建和恢复涉及的贸易与发展问题、以及影响经济的现象――如疾病或气候变化。
160. To strengthen the impact of its research, UNCTAD needs to greatly improve its outreach, which will require better targeting of the audience for its work, better management of its relationships with the media and smarter use of information and communication technology to disseminate its messages. It will be important to reach out to policymakers and policy advocates in all regions and at all levels, as well as to academic and research institutions and civil society entities. To that end, a proactive effort will have to be made to identify a broad network of recipients. UNCTAD should also strengthen ties with the development research community in developing countries.160. 为加强其研究工作的影响,贸发会议需要极大改善其外联工作。这将要求更好地瞄准工作对象、更好地处理与媒体的关系、以及更好地利用信通技术传播信息。在所有地区和所有层面上联络决策者和政策倡导者以及学术、研究机构和民间社会团体,非常重要。为此目的,必须做出积极努力,确定一个广泛的客户网。贸发会议也应当加强与发展中国家发展问题研究团体的联系。
161. The further strengthening of UNCTAD’s research and analysis will warrant the provision of more resources for this purpose. This can be achieved through a combination of the following: (a) deepening the research commitment within each relevant programme element; (b) intensifying interdivisional collaboration on cross-cutting issues such as the least developed countries and South–South cooperation; (c) making greater use of interdivisional task forces, which should allow resources to be devoted temporarily to specific time-bound research projects without altering their long-term allocation; (d) engaging in intensified research collaboration with other parts of the United Nations system, as well as with a network of research entities throughout the world; (e) using increased extrabudgetary resources for research and analysis, especially with regard to new and emerging issues, with the possibility of using part of these resources to establish a system of resident scholars to work on new and emerging issues on fixed-term contracts. The long-term goal of these steps is to strengthen UNCTAD’s position as a pre-eminent centre of research and a leading source of policy support for decision makers at the national and international levels.161. 为进一步加强贸发会议的研究和分析工作,需要提供更多的资源。可以通过同时开展下述工作来实现这一点:(a) 在每一相关方案内容上加大研究承诺;(b) 在最不发达国家和南南合作这类经常性问题上加强各司之间的合作;(c) 更好地利用各司间工作小组,将资源临时用于具体而限时的研究项目,但不改变其长期配置;(d) 加强与联合国系统其他机构和全世界研究机构网络的研究合作;(e) 为研究和分析工作—特别是新的和正出现问题—利用增加的预算外资源,并有可能部分利用这些资源设立一个在职学者制度,按定期合同研究新的和正出现问题。这些措施的长期目标是加强贸发会议作为首要研究中心与国家和国际层面上向决策者提供政策支持的一个主要来源的地位。
2.2.
Intergovernmental machinery政府间机制
162. The intergovernmental machinery of UNCTAD must be more action-oriented in its monitoring of systemic changes in the areas of trade, finance, investment, technology and sustainable development, and in its practical contributions to development policy options at the national, regional and global levels. One of the principal objectives of its work should be to effectively equip developing countries with realistic and smart policy choices to enable them to maximize the opportunities presented by globalization and economic integration and to deal with the risks arising therefrom. This is particularly important for countries that have not been able to participate meaningfully in the globalization process but have been exposed to its risks. A related task should be to make constructive suggestions on how to achieve the orderly evolution of the international economic and trading systems in a development-supportive manner.162. 在监督贸易、金融、投资、技术和可持续发展领域系统性变化以及为国家、区域和全球层面上发展政策选择做出实际贡献时,贸发会议的政府间机制必须更加注重行动。其工作的一个主要目标应当是,让发展中国家具备实际可行和明智的政策选择,从而能够最大限度地利用全球化和经济一体化所带来的机会,并处理由此产生的风险。对于那些尚未能真正参与全球化进程但已经面临这些风险的国家,这尤其重要。一个相关的任务应当是如何以支持发展的方式为实现国际经济和贸易体系有序的沿革而提供建设性建议。
163. The added value of having an issue discussed in an intergovernmental forum is the prospect of reaching intergovernmental consensus that leads to intergovernmental action. At the mid-term review in 2006, member States recommended that UNCTAD should ensure that intergovernmental meetings resulted in development-oriented outcomes, including policy options (TD/B(S-XXIII)/5, para. 13 (b)). This important recommendation should now be fully implemented, bearing in mind the broader systemic shifts affecting development.163. 在政府间论坛上讨论某一问题所带来的进一步益处是有可能达成导致政府间行动的政府间共识。在2006年的中期审查中,成员国建议贸发会议应当确保政府间会议产生以发展为重的成果,包括政策选择方案(TD/B(S-XXIII)/5,第13(b)段)。考虑到影响发展的更广范的体制变化,现在应当充分落实这一重要建议。
164. The intergovernmental pillar of UNCTAD must also be more closely linked with the research and analysis pillar. Greater attention should be given to utilizing the secretariat’s analysis more fully in the process of formulating policy-oriented outcomes. At the same time, the intergovernmental machinery should identify areas where new or further research and analysis is required. It should discuss emerging challenges and opportunities based on a real-time analysis by the secretariat with a view to producing rapid policy responses. This will require a more innovative and targeted use of the intergovernmental machinery, especially the executive sessions of the Board.164. 贸发会议的政府间支柱也必须与研究和分析支柱更密切联系起来。在制定以政策为主的成果过程中,应当更多地注意更充分地利用秘书处的分析。同时,政府间机制应当确认那些需要新的或进一步研究和分析的领域。它应当根据秘书处的实时分析讨论正出现的挑战和机遇,以作出迅速的政策反应。这将要求特别是在理事会的执行会议上以较新方式和较明确的目的利用政府间机制。
165. The Trade and Development Board should have a broader agenda and should play a more prominent role in the work of the General Assembly and the Economic and Social Council. The Board should support the work of the Assembly more actively in the main areas of UNCTAD’s mandate, including trade, finance and investment, as well as in the areas of systemic issues and countries with special development needs. In particular, it should specifically seek to contribute agreed inputs to the General Assembly’s deliberations and resolution on trade and development, including by submitting agreed elements of the resolution for consideration by the General Assembly.165. 贸易和发展理事会应当有更广泛的议程,并应当在联大和经社理事会的工作中发挥一个更显著的作用。理事会应当在贸发会议任务的主要领域中更积极地支持联大的工作,这包括贸易、金融和投资,以及系统性问题和有特殊发展需要国家等领域。特别是,它应当着重争取为大会讨论有关贸易和发展的决定提供商定的意见,包括提交商定的决议内容供大会审议。
166. For the Board to play a more prominent role in the work of the General Assembly, its calendar of meetings should be harmonized with that of the Assembly. To that end, expert meetings could take place from November to March and sessions of the commissions in May–June, so that the results of their work could feed into the deliberations of the Board in September or October and then into the work of the General Assembly in October or November. This would also allow more time to prepare for expert meetings.166. 为了使理事会在联大的工作中发挥一个更显著的作用,它的会议日程应当配合联大的日程。为此目的,可以从11月至3月举行专家会议,从5月至6月举行各委员会会议,从而可以将其工作成果纳入理事会在9月或10月的议事工作和随后的大会在10月或11月的工作。这样也能为筹备专家会议留出更多的时间。
167. The Board should also play a full role in UNCTAD’s contribution to the implementation of and follow-up to the Millennium Development Goals and the outcomes of major United Nations and other international conferences and summits. In addition to carrying out its annual review, it should seek to take advantage of UNCTAD’s research and analysis to contribute to the General Assembly’s ongoing work in such areas as the Millennium Development Goals, sustainable development and financing for development. It should also contribute in such areas as South–South cooperation, climate change and poverty eradication.167. 在贸发会议致力于落实《千年发展目标》以及联合国与其他国际会议和首脑会议主要成果及其后续行动方面,理事会也应当发挥充分作用。除了开展年度审查,它应当争取利用贸发会议的研究和分析优势协助大会在《千年发展目标》、可持续发展和为发展融资方面正在进行的工作。它也应当在南南合作、气候变化和减贫这类领域作出贡献。
168. The mandates of the three existing commissions (on trade, investment and enterprise) need to be reviewed; proposals for the creation of a new commission have already been tabled. In taking their decision on this issue, member States may wish to consider the possibility of establishing commissions for a four-year period consistent with the UNCTAD conference cycle, while keeping in mind the need to retain a standing focus on the core areas of its work.168. 需要审查三个现有委员会(贸易、投资和企业)的任务,已经提出了一个设立新委员会的建议。在就这一问题做出决定时,各成员国可能需要考虑按照贸发会议会议周期的设立为期4年的委员会的可能性,同时铭记有必要对其工作的核心领域保持持续的关注。
169. A number of expert meetings have proved successful because of the inherent interest of the topics and the quality of the discussions. To enable such meetings to systematically achieve their full potential in terms of contributing to policy formulation, it will be important to focus more sharply on actionable outcomes, make better use of analytical inputs so that topics are dealt with in greater depth, and promote closer interaction among participants. A key constraint on the effective functioning of expert meetings is the ongoing problem of funding the participation of experts from developing countries. So far no sustainable funding method has been found, nor has consensus been reached on the use of regular budget resources for this purpose. Contributions to the trust fund set up to finance expert participation have been inadequate to cover needs. A permanent solution to this problem must be found, since maintaining the status quo without one is no longer a viable option if the expert meetings are to function effectively.169. 因为专题本身的意义和讨论的质量,事实证明一些专家会议很成功。为使这类会议系统地发挥其充分潜力,以有助于政策制定,重要的是更突出地侧重于可采取行动的成果,更好地利用分析结果,从而更深入地处理专题,促进参加者之间更密切的互动。专家会议有效运转的一个主要制约,是仍然存在的为发展中国家专家与会提供资助的问题。至今为止尚未找到长久的资助办法,也没有就为此利用经常预算资源而达成共识。对已经设立的资助专家与会信托基金的捐款,不足以满足需要。如果想让专家会议有效发挥作用,就必须找到解决该问题的长久办法,因为没有这样的办法而维持现状再也行不通了。
3.3.
Technical cooperation技术合作
170. The most important issue to come up recently in relation to technical cooperation is the “One United Nations” concept, which was launched in 2004 by the United Nations Development Group and the United Nations System Chief Executives Board for Coordination to achieve more cohesiveness and efficiency in United Nations development assistance operations at the country level. In 2005 and 2006, the Economic and Social Council, the General Assembly (in its follow-up to the Millennium Summit) and the High-level Panel on System-wide Coherence of the Secretary-General of the United Nations made similar calls for greater country-level coherence. In December 2006, eight countries volunteered to be One United Nations pilot countries, and in April 2007 the Secretary-General of the United Nations submitted his response to the report of the High-level Panel on United Nations System-wide Coherence to the General Assembly (A/61/836).170. 最近在技术合作方面出现的最重要议题是“一个联合国”的概念。这由联合国发展集团和联合国系统行政首脑协调理事会于2004年发起,以在国家层面上更一致和有效地开展联合国发展援助工作。在2005年和2006年,经社理事会、联大(在千年首脑会议的后续行动中)以及联合国秘书长的全系统一致性问题高级别小组也为国家层面的更大一致性发出了类似的呼吁。在2006年12月,有八个国家自愿担任“一个联合国”的试行国,联合国秘书长于2007年4月响应了联合国全系统一致性问题高级别小组向大会提交的报告(A/61/836)。
171. UNCTAD currently faces a number of difficulties at the country level. It is a “non-resident agency”, meaning it does not have a country presence; trade-related assistance is marginal in the design of United Nations plans at the country level; the extrabudgetary resources currently provided to UNCTAD are fragmented, unpredictable and earmarked; and its interregional and regional operations do not facilitate participation in the United Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF), which is country-based. It will therefore be essential to ensure that the One United Nations process is implemented in such a way that it becomes easier, not harder still, for UNCTAD to raise the profile of trade and development at the country level.171. 贸发会议目前在国家层面上面临一些困难。它是一个“非驻地机构”;这意味着它没有国别办事处,与贸易有关的援助问题在制定联合国的国家层面规划中不受重视。目前向贸发会议提供的预算外资源零零散散,无法预测,用途事先锁定;其区域间和区域性活动没有为参与以国别为基础的联合国发展援助框架带来便利。因此,重要的将是确保落实“一个联合国”的进程能使贸发会议更容易、而非更困难地在国家层面上提高贸易和发展问题的影响。
172. To achieve this, UNCTAD will have to work closely with other organizations that have complementary objectives. At the most recent meeting of the Chief Executives Board for Coordination, UNCTAD proposed the creation of a “trade and productive sectors” cluster, the purpose of which would be to allow organizations working on trade and development and related issues to join forces and, within the One United Nations process, to increase their impact at the country level. The organizations involved so far are the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the International Trade Centre (ITC) and WTO, but it will be important to engage the regional commissions of the United Nations as well. The goal is to raise the profile of trade and productive sectors in various countries, to propose a package of technical cooperation programmes that could be supplied by the cluster, and to ensure greater overall coherence in country development plans.172. 为实现这个目标,贸发会议将必须更紧密地与具有相关目标的其他组织合作。在行政首长协调会最近的会议上,贸发会议建议设立一个“贸易和生产部门”集群,目的是让从事贸易和发展以及相关问题的组织把力量联合起来,在“一个联合国”的进程中增加国家层面上的影响。至今已经参与的组织是联合国工业发展组织、联合国粮农组织、国际贸易中心和世贸组织。但重要的是让联合国的区域委员会也参与。这一目的是提高贸易和生产部门在各个国家的影响力,提出一个可由这个集群提供的技术合作方案的套案,并确保在国家发展规划中有更大的整体一致性。
173. A second major focus for UNCTAD technical cooperation activities will be the “Aid for Trade” initiative. The aid-for-trade agenda includes technical assistance to build capacity to formulate locally-owned trade policies, participate in trade negotiations, implement trade agreements, build supply-side capacities (including trade-related infrastructure) and provide compensatory assistance to offset adjustment costs. UNCTAD can provide technical cooperation at each stage of the trading process, from investment, enterprise development and financing, through customs operation and transport, to market access and market entry. Moreover, the WTO task force on aid for trade has recommended that donors should consider channelling aid-for-trade funds multilaterally where appropriate. UNCTAD, working in cooperation with other organizations, notably the members of the trade and productive sectors cluster, should play a leading role in this respect.173. 贸发会议技术合作活动的第二个主要重点将是《贸易援助倡议》。贸易援助议程包括:提供为建设能力技术援助以制定本地自主的贸易政策、参与贸易谈判、履行贸易协定、建设供方能力(包括有关贸易的基础设施)和提供补偿性援助以抵消调整成本。贸发会议可以在贸易过程的每一阶段提供合作:从投资、企业发展和融资,到海关管理和运输,最后到市场准入和市场进入。另外,世贸组织贸易援助任务小组已经建议,援助方应当考虑在适当情况下以多边方式输送贸易援助资金。贸发会议与其他组织特别是贸易和生产部门集群的成员合作,应能在这方面发挥一个领导作用。
174. Underlying these objectives is the assumption that UNCTAD’s technical cooperation efforts must be much better organized and integrated. Greater used should be made of “packages” of programmes, which should be sharply focused on a limited number of thematic areas. This will not only help resolve the problem of fragmentation of such efforts, but also improve UNCTAD’s ability to better integrate its technical cooperation activities at the country level.174. 这些目标设想贸发会议的技术合作工作必须得到更好地组织和协调。应当更多地利用方案的“套案”,明确侧重于有限数量的专题领域。这不仅有助于解决这类工作的零散问题,而且有利于改善贸发会议的能力,更好地在国家层面统一技术合作活动。
175. UNCTAD also has to greatly improve its technical cooperation outreach. It must ensure that its technical cooperation capacity is brought to the attention of potential recipients much more effectively; it must ensure that its funding needs are brought to the attention of potential donors in a much more coherent way; and it must continuously monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of its technical cooperation activities in order to better disseminate their added value and relevance. For their part, developing countries should make their needs known to the secretariat, and donors are urged to substantially increase their contributions to UNCTAD technical assistance funds in the context of their commitment to substantially increase official development assistance.175. 贸发会议也必须极大改善其技术合作的对外联系。它必须确保技术合作能力更有效地引起潜在接受方的注意;它必须确保其融资需要以更一致的方式引起潜在捐助方的注意。而且,它必须继续监督和评估其技术合作活动的实效,更好地传播其增加值和实用性。发展中国家本身应当让秘书处了解其需要,捐助方应在大量增加官方发展援助的承诺方面下大幅增加对贸发会议技术援助资金的捐款。
B.B.
Enhancing UNCTAD’s role in emerging issues增强贸发会议在正出现问题上的作用
176. UNCTAD will be strengthened and its impact enhanced if it is entrusted with ambitious goals. No matter how efficient UNCTAD’s working methods may be, if the tasks it is asked to do are not significant, its impact will not be significant either. Such tasks may relate to traditional areas of its work that are still important in relation to development, or to new and emerging issues upon which UNCTAD’s expertise can be brought to bear. Some examples of such issues are given below.176. 如果被赋予远大的目标,贸发会议将得到加强,并扩大影响。无论贸发会议的工作方法何等有效,如果要求它做的工作并不重要,其影响也不会重要。这类任务必须关系到它在发展方面依然重要的传统工作领域,或者贸发会议有专长处理的新的和正在出现的问题。
1.1.
Special development needs of groups of countries国家集团的特别发展需要
177. The lack of progress made by the least developed countries towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals has emerged as a serious concern at the mid-point of the time frame for their implementation. UNCTAD will contribute to the efforts by the United Nations system to diagnose the causes of this lack of progress and will make practical policy recommendations to put the LDCs back on track. Poor middle-income countries and some economies in transition are also beset by poverty, unemployment and income inequality, and are in urgent need of more targeted international support, including through international poverty-reduction efforts. The Trade and Development Board could take up these issues on the basis of analysis provided by the UNCTAD secretariat, with a view to making recommendations.177. 最不发达国家在实现《千年发展目标》方面缺少进展,已经在其履行的时间框架中期引起严重关切。贸发会议将有助于联合国系统确定这一缺少进展之原因的工作,并将提出实际性的政策建议,把最不发达国家拉回到轨道上来。穷困的中等收入国家和某些转型经济体也受到贫困、失业和收入不平等问题的困扰,迫切需要更有针对性的国际支持,包括通过国际减贫工作提供的支持。贸易和发展理事会可以根据贸发会议秘书处提供的分析而处理这些问题,并提出建议。
2.2.
New-generation South–South cooperation新一代的南南合作
178. UNCTAD has always championed South–South cooperation. In the current phase of globalization, the relevance and development potential of South–South cooperation has increased substantially. UNCTAD will strengthen its support for such cooperation by: deepening its research and analysis of South–South trade and investment, with the focus on new opportunities and emerging challenges; supporting South–South regional and interregional trade integration, including networking of South–South regional trade agreements and the interface with North–South agreements; providing practical, pro-development solutions to expand South–South trade in goods, services and commodities; upgrading its data and analytical tools on South–South cooperation, such as the new South–South Trade Information System; focusing its technical cooperation programmes more on South–South issues; and supporting the Agreement on the Global System of Trade Preferences among Developing Countries.178. 贸发会议一贯促进南南合作。在目前的全球化阶段,南南合作的实际意义和发展潜力有了长足的增长。贸发会议将为这类合作加大努力:以新的机遇和正出现的挑战为重点加强关于南南贸易和发展问题的研究和分析;支持南南区域内和区域间贸易一体化,包括在南南区域贸易协定之间与南北协定之间建立联系和连接;提供促进发展的实用解决方法,以扩大南南货物、服务和商品贸易;更新关于南南合作的数据和分析手段,如新的南南贸易信息系统;使技术合作方案更侧重于南南问题;支持《发展中国家间全球贸易优惠制度协定》。
3.3.
A changing commodities economy变化中的初级商品经济
179. Since 2002, there has been a “commodity boom”, with international commodity prices showing a strong upward trend. Commodity-dependent developing countries may be able to use this window of opportunity to grow at a pace that will reduce poverty. Their success will depend on both the international environment – including the provision of finance for investment in infrastructure and supply-side capacity-building – and their ability to undertake necessary institutional development. UNCTAD will provide analytical and capacity-building support, particularly by strengthening its work on improving the access of small and poor producers to markets; strengthening regional cooperation on commodity market development; promoting the sustainable-development aspects of commodity production and trade; and enhancing the management of mineral resource wealth. UNCTAD’s ongoing work on improving the competitiveness of commodity sectors and vertical and horizontal diversification will be informed by the need to respond to the changes taking place. In this context, the aid-for-trade initiative will be particularly important. UNCTAD will also give priority to issues that require action at the multilateral level, including the development of new mechanisms to mitigate the short-term impact of commodity market fluctuations and the financing of safety-net programmes. It will mobilize international cooperation in support of commodity sector development.179. 自从2002年以来,伴随着初级国际商品价格的强劲增长,出现了一个“初级商品热”。依赖初级商品的发展中国家有可能利用这一机会快速取得发展,减轻贫困。它们能否成功既取决于国际环境――包括为基础设施投资和供方能力建设提供资金――也取决于进行必要体制发展的能力。贸发会议将提供分析和能力建设方面的支持,特别是加强其改善弱小生产者市场准入方面的工作;加强区域之间关于初级商品市场发展的合作;促进初级商品生产和贸易的可持续发展方面;加强矿产资源的管理。贸发会议改善初级商品行业竞争力与纵向和横向多样化的工作,需要考虑到应对正在发生的变化的必要性。就此来说,《贸易援助》倡议特别重要。贸发会议也将重视那些要求在多边层面采取行动的问题,包括制定新的机制以缓和初级商品市场动荡的短期影响和资助安全网方案。它将动员国际合作支持初级商品行业的发展。
4.4.
Trade and development implications of climate change气候变化对贸易和发展的影响
180. The impact of climate change, which will have particularly adverse consequences for developing countries, and the significant economic costs of inaction in this area have recently been receiving increased attention from the international community. Measures taken in response to climate change in the areas of transportation, energy use, electricity generation, agriculture and forestry have significant trade and development implications. There is a growing willingness to adopt more stringent climate-change policies at both the national and international levels. UNCTAD is particularly well placed to address the following issues in this respect: the effect of climate-change policies on trade competitiveness, particularly with regard to the fossil-fuel energy content of tradable goods; trade and investment opportunities arising as a result of the adoption of measures to combat climate change; investment promotion and development gains in developing countries under the clean development mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol; and the compatibility of climate policy and trade rules.180. 气候变化对于发展中国家尤其具有负面影响。气候变化的影响和在这方面不采取行动的重大经济代价,最近已经引起了国际社会的日益重视。在运输、能源利用、电力、农业和林业领域对气候变化所采取的措施,对于贸易和发展有着重大影响。对于采取更严格的气候变化政策,国内和国际层面都有日益增长的意愿。贸发会议尤其具备处理这方面下述问题的能力:气候变化政策对于贸易竞争力的影响,特别是可贸易品的矿物燃料能源含量问题;因采纳措施克服气候变化而引起的投资机会;《京都议定书》清洁发展机制下发展中国家的投资促进和发展收益;以及气候政策和贸易规则的彼此协调。
5.5.
Migration移 徏
181. Labour migration is expected to continue to rise for economic, political, security and sociocultural reasons, but opportunities for labour market integration remain limited due to political and security pressures, as well as its perceived negative effects on wages and employment. Migration brings benefits and costs to both countries of origin and countries of destination: the challenge is to ensure win-win outcomes for all. UNCTAD can help promote inclusive globalization in respect of migration by assisting countries to incorporate policies on labour market integration into their national and international development strategies; it can clarify issues at the interface of trade, migration and globalization; and it can enhance understanding and consensus among policymakers on the balance of benefits accruing from labour market integration.181. 预计劳工移徏由于经济、政治、安全和社会文化原因而会继续增加,但是由于政治和安全方面的压力以及这对工资和就业的预期负面影响,劳工市场一体化的机遇继续受到限制。移徙为来源国和目的国都带来了利益和代价:挑战是确保大家都获得双赢结果。贸发会议可以协助各国将劳工市场一体化的政策纳入国家和国际发展战略,从而帮助在移徙方面促进有包容性的全球化,它可澄清贸易、移徙和全球化界面的问题;它可加强决策者在平衡劳工市场一体化所产生的利益这个问题上的理解和共识。
6.6.
Energy security能源安全
182. There are still 1.6 billion people in the world without electricity: to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, this number would need to be reduced to less than 1 billion by 2015. However, this will not be possible without dramatic new investment in energy infrastructure and resources, including alternative energy sources and efficient energy use. Countries need to optimize their energy mix and expand the use of renewable energy sources such as biofuel that contribute less to climate change while having a positive effect on rural incomes and agricultural diversification. Oil-exporting developing countries face the challenge of investing the surplus in such a way that it provides income for future generations without weakening the competitiveness of other exports. UNCTAD can help energy-exporting countries to devise strategies on the development of the energy sector as an engine for growth and development; assist energy-importing countries in attaining energy security through producer-consumer partnerships; enhance procurement, finance and risk management; and promote regional energy cooperation.182. 世界上仍有16亿人口缺少电力:为实现《千年发展目标》,需要在2015年以前将这一数字减少到10亿以下,然而,如果没有在能源基础设施和资源方面的重大新投资,包括替代能源和高效能源的使用,这将是不可能的。各国需要优化混合能源组合,并加大对可再生能源的利用,如生物燃料,这类能源对气候变化影响较小但对农村收入和农产品多样化有积极效果。出口石油的发展中国家面临的挑战,是为后代提供收入而同时以不削弱其他出口品竞争力的方式来投资盈余。贸发会议可以帮助能源出口国家制定以发展能源行业为成长和发展引擎的战略;协助能源进口国家通过生产者与消费者的伙伴关系获得能源安全;加强采买、金融和风险管理;促进区域能源合作。
7.7.
Trade and development dimensions of post-conflict recovery冲突后恢复进程的贸易和发展问题
183. Restarting and transforming the economic machinery is a pressing concern for countries emerging from conflict and trying to put their societies on the road to recovery and growth. In a globalizing world economy, such efforts need to take full account of trade, investment and interrelated issues. UNCTAD’s expertise and experience could make a significant contribution to the efforts by countries in the recovery process to formulate effective development strategies that would help them not only to devise ways of integrating into the global and regional economies on beneficial terms, but also to cope with external economic challenges. UNCTAD research and policy support could be complemented by technical cooperation for institutional, legal, regulatory and human capacity-building, to be delivered in cooperation with other United Nations agencies in order to provide the necessary, but so far underrepresented, economic aspect of post-conflict and crisis recovery.183. 对于摆脱冲突并试图使其社会返回重建和发展之路的国家,重新开始的经济体制改革是一个迫切的关注问题。在全球化的世界经济中,这类努力需要考虑贸易、投资和相关的问题。贸发会议的专长和经验可以对各国的恢复工作做出重大贡献,从而使其制定有效的发展战略,协助它们不仅制定以有利条件融入全球和区域经济的方式,而且去应对外部的经济挑战。贸发会议的研究和政策支持可以通过制度、法律、规则和人力建设方面的技术合作来补充,与其他联合国机构合作投放,从而提供必要的――但是目前尚且不足的――冲突后和危机恢复的经济援助。
8.8.
Science, technology and innovation科学、技术和创新
184. As the global marketplace becomes increasingly liberalized and competitive, countries need to constantly upgrade their technological capabilities. Governments need to regularly assess the conditions governing the transfer of technology and the requirements for upgrading technological capacity. They also need to identify weaknesses in their science and technology policy, including in their innovation policies, and ensure they have the appropriate institutions to support their science and technology strategy. Information and communication technologies are unique in the way they can allow newcomers to leapfrog to state-of-the-art technologies without having to struggle with obsolete technologies.184. 随着全球市场自由化和竞争性日增,各国需要不断更新它们的技术能力。各国政府需要经常评估有关技术转让的条件和关于更新技术能力的要求。它们也需要确认其科技政策方面――包括创新政策方面――的不足,确保其有适当的机构支持科技战略。信息和通信技术是独特的,能够允许新进入者迅速获得最新的技术而不必在陈旧技术中挣扎。
185. UNCTAD should undertake policy-oriented research into knowledge as a global public good and into issues related to the transfer of technology, including appropriate mechanisms for its global dissemination. It should enhance its research and analysis on the role and impact of information and communication technologies in the field of development, with a focus on the information economy (including issues of Internet governance), intellectual property rights and the financing of technologies. It should also analyse trends in emerging technologies, in particular with regard to promoting the transfer of environmentally sound technologies to developing countries.185. 贸发会议应当对作为全球公有财产的知识以及技术转让相关问题――包括适当的全球传播机制――开展政策研究。它应当加强关于信息通信技术在发展领域中作用和影响的研究和分析,侧重于信息经济(包括互联网管理问题)、知识产权以及技术融资。它也应当分析正出现的技术趋势,特别是促进向发展中国家转让无害环境的技术。
186. In full synergy with its research and analysis work, UNCTAD should provide technical assistance to countries through its science, technology and innovation policy reviews. It should also provide assistance with policymaking in the field of information and communication technology (ICT), including ICT measurement and legal and regulatory frameworks. In order to enhance the development of knowledge and skills for the purposes of trade, science and technology, UNCTAD should continue to encourage links between researchers and policymakers and the use of research-based policymaking for sustainable development and poverty reduction.186. 与研究和分析工作充分协同,贸发会议应当通过科学、技术和创新政策审评向各国提供技术援助。它也应当向信息和通信技术领域的决策者提供援助,包括在信通技术计量和法律和规则框架方面。为了发展知识和技能,促进贸易、科学和技术,贸发会议应当继续鼓励研究者与决策者之间的联系,以及为促进可持续发展和减贫而利用基于研究的决策。
9.9.
Emerging barriers to developing countries’ trade and investment新出现的发展中国家贸易和投资障碍
187. It is a matter of concern that the opportunities for access by developing countries to developed countries’ markets are subjected to an increasing variety of non-tariff barriers. The Secretary-General’s High-level Panel on Non-Tariff Barriers is a timely step in dealing with this issue in a system-wide manner. At the same time, the establishment of an inter-agency mechanism on this topic to assist the Panel is a testimony to UNCTAD’s eagerness and ability to work with agencies of the United Nations system on common issues. Work on this issue will continue and will be strengthened. Another emerging type of barrier relates to developing countries’ investment efforts in developed countries, which at times come up against obstacles on the grounds of national security, economic patriotism, social clauses and other forms of restriction. These and other emerging barriers need to be dealt with systematically, with a view to establishing fair terms of engagement.187. 一个引人关切的问题是发展中国家进入发达国家市场的机会受到越来越多的各种非关税壁垒的限制。秘书长的非关税壁垒问题高级别小组是以全面方式处理该问题的一个及时步骤。同时,设立本专题政府间机制以协助该小组,体现了贸发会议愿与联合国系统各机构就共同问题而工作的热情和能力。关于这一问题的工作将继续进行并得到加强。另一类正出现的壁垒涉及到发展中国家在发达国家的投资。这些投资有时遇到了国家安全、经济爱国主义、社会条款等为由的障碍和其他形式的限制。需要系统地处理这些和其他新出现的壁垒,以建立公平的参与条件。
10.10.
Aid for trade and development《贸易援助》和发展
188. Aid for Trade is an essential complement to international trade liberalization, whether multilateral, bilateral or unilateral, to realize the potential development gains and to mitigate the costs of adjustment and implementation. Aid-for-Trade funds should be channelled multilaterally to help developing countries build their productive capacities and their ability to compete effectively in international markets. As indicated in chapter IV, progress on Aid for Trade must not be linked with progress in the Round. These important markers for Aid for Trade have been highlighted in the report of the WTO Task Force on Aid for Trade and should be taken on board in transforming commitments into action. For their part, prospective beneficiaries of Aid for Trade must ensure better mainstreaming of trade into national development policies and plans. Prioritization of trade in development is critical to evolving stakeholder Governments’ commitment to trade and to implementing trade-enhancing programmes.188. 《贸易援助》是国际贸易自由化(无论是多边、双边或单边贸易)的一个基本组成部分,以实现发展的潜在收益并减少调整和落实的代价。《贸易援助》资金应当彼此多方面连接起来,协助发展中国家建设生产能力和在国际市场上的有效竞争能力。如第四章指出的,《贸易援助》方面的进展绝不能与谈判的进展挂钩。世贸组织《贸易援助》工作组的报告已经指出了《贸易援助》的这些重要特征,应当立即纳入于将承诺转化为行动的过程之中。《贸易援助》潜在受益者必须自己确保贸易成为国家发展政策和规划中的主要事项。对于利益相关政府把承诺转化为贸易和落实贸易促进方案的行动而言,在发展中优先重视贸易至关重要。
189. Over a period of many years, UNCTAD has gained significant experience in trade- and development-related technical assistance, and its programmes can make an important contribution. For example, UNCTAD has established expertise in training officials from developing countries in trade policy issues and assisting them to participate effectively in trade negotiations; promoting the diversification of commodity-dependent economies; assessing the impact of trade in services, non-tariff barriers and the interface between trade and environmental measures; strengthening developing countries’ capacities to meet environmental and health-related product standards and to make use of preferential schemes and regional integration, including among developing countries; and drafting competition laws and policies.189. 许多年来,贸发会议在有关贸易和发展的技术援助方面已经获得重要经验,其各种方案能够作出重要贡献。例如,贸发会议已经在以下领域建立了专长:培训发展中国家官员掌握贸易政策问题和协助他们有效参与贸易谈判;促进初级商品依赖经济的多样化;评估服务贸易的影响、非关税壁垒与贸易和环境措施之间的关系;加强发展中国家满足环境和健康有关产品标准的能力,并利用优惠制度和区域一体化(包括在发展中国家之间);起草竞争法和政策。
190. UNCTAD can further assist developing countries in building productive capacities and international competitiveness through such measures as investment policy reviews and investment promotion; science, technology and innovation strategies; entrepreneurship and enterprise development; trade logistics; customs systems and trade facilitation; and the use of information and communications technologies for development. Together with other crucially needed measures, such as building and upgrading infrastructure and adjustment assistance, these actions will significantly strengthen the ability of developing countries to make use of existing and new market access opportunities and thereby multiply the gains from trade.190. 贸发会议可以通过以下措施进一步协助发展中国家建设生产能力和国际竞争力:如投资政策审评和投资促进;科学、技术和创新战略;企业家能力和企业发展;贸易支柱;海关制度和贸易便利;使用促进发展的信息和通信技术。这些行动与其他迫切需要的措施一起,如建设和更新基础设施和调整援助活动,将极大地加强发展中国家利用现有和新出现的市场准入机会的能力,从而扩大贸易收益。
C.C.
Enhancing UNCTAD’s role in the context of United Nations reform加强贸发会议在联合国改革方面的作用
191. Efforts are being made to strengthen UNCTAD’s role within the context of United Nations reform, a process that is still under way and whose outcome cannot be predicted with certainty.191.
However, it is safe to say that development will remain a core preoccupation of the United Nations and that UNCTAD will have a distinct role in carrying forward the development mission of the United Nations.已经为加强贸发会议在联合国改革方面的作用而做出了努力,这是一个正在进行的工作,其结果尚无法确定。然而,能够可靠地说,发展问题将继续成为联合国的核心关注,而贸发会议将在执行联合国的发展使命方面发挥一个独特作用。
192. The basic mandate of UNCTAD is set out in General Assembly resolution 1995 (XIX) of 1964, which established UNCTAD as an organ of the General Assembly.192.
Since then, UNCTAD has been designated as the focal point within the United Nations for the integrated treatment of trade and development and interrelated issues in the areas of finance, technology, investment and sustainable development.联大1964年第1995(XIX)号决议规定了贸发会议的基本任务。该决议设立贸发会议作为联大的一个机构。自那以后,贸发会议已经被指定为联合国内综合处理贸易和发展以及金融,技术,投资和可持续发展相关问题的协调机构。
193. In the coming years, developing countries and countries with economies in transition will continue to face major challenges in the area of trade and development, including those arising from emerging and new issues. They will continue to need policy advice, and they will continue to need capacity-building assistance. As the United Nations focal point in this area, and as an organ of the General Assembly, UNCTAD must play a lead role in tackling these challenges. At the same time, the General Assembly will need to make sure that UNCTAD is shielded from wasteful “mandate creep”.193. 在未来几年中,发展中国家和经济转型国家将继续面临贸易和发展方面的主要挑战。有的来自于正出现的和新的问题。这些国家将继续需要政策建议,将继续需要能力建设援助。作为联合国在这方面的协调机构和联大的一个机关,贸发会议必须在处理这些挑战方面发挥先导作用。同时,联大将需要确保贸发会议免于浪费的“任务扩展”。
194. The actions outlined in this report are designed to help enable UNCTAD to fulfil its role in promoting international cooperation in the field of trade and development and in helping countries address the challenges and opportunities of globalization. They will establish UNCTAD as a leading centre of research and analysis, providing its stakeholders with innovative and practical policy recommendations based on broad cooperation with other organizations and think tanks. They will enable the UNCTAD intergovernmental machinery to generate action-oriented outcomes in all areas of UNCTAD’s mandate in order to guide Governments in their development efforts and in promoting orderly and development-oriented systemic evolution, and they will allow it to support the General Assembly directly in its deliberations on trade and development. They will place UNCTAD at the heart of a cluster of global and regional organizations offering a package of capacity-building technical assistance activities on trade and development and interrelated areas that can be delivered through the One United Nations process in accordance with each country’s needs.194. 本报告指出的各种行动是要帮助贸发会议发挥作用,在贸易和发展领域以及协助各国处理全球化挑战和机遇方面促进国际合作。这些行动将使贸发会议成为一个研究和分析的先导中心,基于与其他组织和思想库的广泛合作,向利益相关者提供创新和实用的政策建议。它们将在贸发会议任务的所有领域中使贸发会议的政府间机制创造出注重行动的成果,从而指引各国政府的发展工作和促进有序的、以发展为方向的系统性演进。这些行动将使贸发会议能够直接支持联大关于贸易和发展的讨论。它们将置贸发会议于全球和区域组织集群的中心,在贸易和发展以及相关领域中提供能力建设技术援助的套案。这种套案可根据每一国家的需要,通过“一个联合国”的进程提供。 -- -- -- -- --
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United Nations Conference联合国
on Trade and Development贸易和发展会议
Distr.Distr.
: General: General
4 July 20074 July 2007
Original: EnglishCHINESE Original: English
GE.07-51182GE. 07-51181 (C) 230707 250707