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UNSCEAR:联合国原子辐射影响问题科学委员会
The Fukushima accident福岛事故
What is UNSCEAR?联合国原子辐射影响问题科学委员会是什么?
The United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) is a committee of the United Nations established by the General Assembly in 1955.联合国原子辐射影响问题科学委员会(辐射科委会)是1955年由大会组建的联合国委员会,由会员国提名的科学专家组成。
It is composed of scientific experts nominated by Member States.其任务授权是评估并报告接触电离辐射的水平和影响。
Its mandate is to assess and report on the levels and effects of exposure to ionizing radiation.世界各地的政府和组织利用科委会的估计数值作为评价辐射风险和确定保护措施的科学依据。
Governments and organizations throughout the world use the Committee’s estimates as the scientific basis for evaluating radiation risk and for deciding on protective measures.辐射科委会是联合国的一个科学委员会。
UNSCEAR is a scientific committee of the United Nations.科委会的任务授权以科学为基础。
The Committee’s mandate is based on science.它所作的审查与政策制定者相关,但并不制定政策。
Its reviews are relevant to policymakers, but it does not establish policy.辐射科委会不效忠于任何国家、组织、商业企业或游说团体。
UNSCEAR does not owe allegiance to any country, organization, commercial enterprise or lobby.科委会的工作方案由大会核准,通常以四至五年为期。
The Committee’s programme of work is approved by the General Assembly; it typically covers a four- to five-year period.为科委会服务的组织责任由联合国环境规划署承担,在维也纳提供辐射科委会秘书处。
The organizational responsibility for servicing the Committee lies with the United Nations Environment Programme, which provides the UNSCEAR secretariat in Vienna.秘书处组办科委会的年度会议并管理文件编写工作,供科委会审阅。
The secretariat organizes the annual sessions of the Committee and manages the preparation of documents for the Committee’s scrutiny.秘书处汇编联合国会员国、国际组织和非政府组织提交的相关数据,以及经过同行审查的科学文献,并组织专家分些这些数据,研究相关的科学专题并作出科学评价。
It compiles relevant data submitted by United Nations Member States, international organizations and non-governmental organizations, as well as peer-reviewed scientific literature, and engages specialists to analyse those data, to study relevant scientific topics and to produce scientific evaluations.这些权威审查结果经科委会核准后出版。
After approval by the Committee, these authoritative reviews are published.它们为制定保护人民和环境的建议和标准提供科学依据。
They provide the scientific basis for recommendations and standards for the protection of people and the environment.本报告的内容是什么?
What is the report about?在“2011年日本东部大地震和海啸后核事故造成的辐射接触水平和影响”这一报告中,重点讲述各种人口群体接触辐射的情况,以及在辐射诱发的人类健康风险和环境风险方面的影响。
In the report “Levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident after the 2011 great east-Japan earthquake and tsunami”, the main focus is on the exposure to radiation of various groups of the population, and the effects in terms of radiation-induced risks for human health and the environment.其中考虑到的各人口群体包括日本福岛县和其他县的居民;以及在事故现场或周围参与应急工作的工人、承包人和其他人。
The population groups considered include residents of the Fukushima Prefecture and other prefectures in Japan; and workers, contractors and others who were engaged in the emergency work at or around the accident site.环境评估涉及海洋、淡水和陆地的生态系统。
The environmental assessment addresses marine, freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems.有18个联合国会员国共派出八十多名专家免费进行分析工作。
Eighteen United Nations Member States provided more than 80 experts to conduct the analytical work cost-free.截至2014年年中,辐射科委会的报告是对福岛第一核电站事故后的辐射接触水平和影响进行的最全面的国际科学分析。
As of mid-2014, the UNSCEAR report is the most comprehensive, international scientific analysis of the levels and effects of exposure to radiation following the accident at the Fukushima-Daiichi Nuclear Power Station.科委会的数据来自何处?
Where did the Committee get its data from?联合国会员国为协助此项工作提供了数据,其中包括:阿根廷、澳大利亚、白俄罗斯、比利时、加拿大、中国、芬兰、法国、德国、印度、印度尼西亚、日本、马来西亚、墨西哥、巴基斯坦、菲律宾、波兰、大韩民国、俄罗斯联邦、斯洛伐克、新加坡、西班牙、瑞典、联合王国和美利坚合众国。
Member States of the United Nations submitted data to assist the process, including Argentina, Australia, Belarus, Belgium, Canada, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, Philippines, Poland, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States of America.除此之外,还有一些国际组织,如全面禁止核试验条约组织筹备委员会、联合国粮食及农业组织(粮农组织)、国际原子能机构(原子能机构)、世界卫生组织(世卫组织)和世界气象组织(气象组织),提供专门知识并共享数据,为此项工作做出了贡献。
Along with that, several international organizations, such as the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) contributed to the work by providing expertise and sharing data.所有数据集在用于分析之前必须被认为是“适得其用”的。
All datasets had to be deemed “fit for purpose” before being used in the analysis.一些数据集没有直接用于评估,但对于比较和相关性检验具有宝贵价值。
Some datasets were not used directly in the assessment, but were valuable for comparison and relevance checks.在最初几天,由于海啸和事故造成的混乱,无法获得测量数据。
Measurements were not available in the first few days because of the disruption caused by the tsunami and the accident.已有的基础设施被毁坏,电力中断。
Existing infrastructure had been wiped out and power was not available.最先的重点是抢救生命这一重要任务。
The immediate focus was on the important task of saving lives.这些因素和其他诸多因素妨碍了在日本的数据收集过程。
These and a host of other factors impeded the data-collection process in Japan.因此科委会不得不广泛使用模型来协助评估工作。
As a result, the Committee had to use models extensively to support its assessments.这意味着在短寿命放射性物质剂量估计数上存在不确定性。
This means that there were uncertainties in the estimation of doses from short-lived radioactive substances.不过,随着时间的推移,逐渐掌握了大量测量数据,并直接用于评估。
However, a significant amount of measurement data became available with time, which were used directly in the assessment.在对长寿命放射性物质的较长期剂量评估方面,所作的评估以放射性物质地面沉积的大量数据为指导。
For the longer-term dose assessment of long-lived radioactive substances, the assessments were guided by numerous data on deposition of radioactive substances on the ground.科委会还使用以过去经验为基础的模型,预测未来的接触情况。
The Committee also used models based on past experience to make projections for future exposure.前景如何?
What is the outlook?对于受事故影响的人口,预计癌症发生率将保持稳定。
For the population affected by the accident, cancer rates are expected to remain stable.科委会预计,可归因于这次事故造成的辐射接触的未来癌症统计数据不会发生很大变化。
The Committee does not expect significant changes in future cancer statistics that could be attributed to radiation exposure from the accident.癌症发病率保持稳定
Cancer rates to remain stable从理论上说,多数受辐射儿童患甲状腺癌的风险会有所增高
Theoretical increased risk of thyroid cancer among most exposed children对出生缺陷/遗传效应没有影响
No impact on birth defects/hereditary effects工人的癌症发病率无可见升高
No discernible increase in cancer rates for workers对野生动植物有短暂影响
Temporary impact on wildlife健康风险
Health risks借助科学,可对因此次事故而大大超过估计数的剂量对福岛县人口造成的健康风险进行合理的量化。
Science makes it possible to reasonably quantify the health risks for the population of the Fukushima Prefecture of doses due to the accident that are considerably larger than those estimated.在接触剂量相当于100毫西弗的急性辐射后,终生癌症患病风险估计为1.3%,再加上未受辐射的日本人口原有的癌症通常患病机率35%。
After an exposure corresponding to an acute dose of 100 mSv, the lifetime risk of cancer would be estimated as 1.3 per cent, in addition to the pre-existing, usual 35 per cent chance of developing cancer in a Japanese population that is unexposed.剂量水平如何?
What were the dose levels?最重要的两种放射性核素是碘和铯,其剂量水平各不相同。
The two most significant radionuclides, iodine and caesium, delivered different dose levels.简单地说,碘-131在被摄入或吸入后,最先被甲状腺吸收。
In simple terms, iodine-131, when ingested or inhaled, is taken up preferentially by the thyroid.但它很快就会消散,因为它的半衰期很短(8天)。
However, it dissipates very quickly, as it has a short half-life (eight days).铯的两种同位素(铯-134和铯-137)半衰期较长(分别为2年和30年),而且对人体的照射相当均匀。
Two isotopes of caesium (caesium-134 and caesium-137) have longer half-lives (2 years and 30 years respectively) and irradiate the body fairly uniformly.甲状腺吸收的剂量主要来自碘-131,最高为几十毫戈瑞,在事故发生后几周内接收。
Doses to the thyroid mainly from iodine-131 ranged up to several tens of milligrays (mGy) and were received within a few weeks after the accident.事故发生后不久的接触率最高,但因接触碘-131而产生的任何威胁在事故后一个月左右便过去了,因为它消散了。
Maximum rates of exposure occurred shortly after the accident, however, any threat from exposure to iodine-131 had passed within a month or so after the accident because it dissipated.不再能探测到该放射性核素。
The radionuclide can no longer be detected.全身有效剂量主要来自铯-134和铯-137,最高为10毫西弗左右,接触者终生接收。
The whole-body effective doses, mainly from caesium-134 and caesium-137, ranged up to ten or so millisieverts (mSv) and will be received over the lifetime of those exposed.辐射在事故发生时最强,但随着时间的推移,额外接触率将逐渐降低。
While at its most intense at the time of the accident, the additional rate of exposure gradually falls with time.有效剂量是对以戈瑞和毫戈瑞为单位的辐射剂量的物理测量值的校正,以体现辐射的生物效应,也是辐射诱发癌症患病可能性的一个指标。
The effective dose adjusts physical measures of radiation dose, expressed in grays and milligrays, for biological effectiveness of the radiation and is an indicator of potential for development of radiation-induced cancer.有效剂量以西弗或其十进制分数为单位:一毫西弗等于一千分之一西弗;一微西弗等于一百万分之一西弗。
Effective dose is expressed in the unit sievert (Sv) or fractions according to the metric system: a millisievert (mSv) is one-thousandth of a sievert; a microsievert (µSv) is one-millionth of a sievert.这次事故的放射性泄漏造成的多数日本人在第一年和随后几年的额外接触剂量小于天然本底辐射剂量(在日本为每年2.1毫西弗左右)。
The additional exposures received by most Japanese people in the first year and subsequent years due to the radioactive releases from the accident are less than the doses received from natural background radiation (which in Japan is about 2.1 mSv annually).对于居住地不在事故现场的日本人尤其如此。
This is particularly the case for Japanese people living away from the accident site.对一般人口和儿童的影响
Impact on the general population and children科委会估计,在多数受影响地区,成年人甲状腺吸收的剂量最高约为35毫戈瑞,但个体之间差别很大(从低两三倍到高两三倍不等)。
The Committee estimated doses to the thyroids of adults to be up to about 35 mGy in the most affected districts, albeit with considerable variation (from about two to three times lower or higher) between individuals.对于一岁的婴儿,在多数受影响的地区,地区平均甲状腺吸收剂量估计最高约为80毫戈瑞。
For one-year-old infants, the district-average thyroid dose in the most affected areas was estimated to be up to about 80 mGy.辐射科委会指出,接触辐射最多的儿童群体中甲状腺癌症患病风险理论上可能会升高,并决定需要对此情形进行密切跟踪,未来还要作进一步评估。
UNSCEAR noted a theoretical possibility that the risk of thyroid cancer among the group of children most exposed to radiation could increase and concluded that the situation needed to be followed closely and further assessed in the future.但甲状腺癌是儿童中的罕见疾病,儿童的正常患病风险很低。
However, thyroid cancer is a rare disease among young children, and their normal risk is very low.可以推测,福岛县有少数怀孕妇女可能吸收到子宫的剂量约为20毫戈瑞,尽管地区平均接触量要低得多。
It is possible to speculate that a small number of pregnant women in the Fukushima Prefecture might have received absorbed doses to the uterus of about 20 mGy, although district-average exposures were considerably lower.不过,由于所涉及的人数少,预计这一人群中儿童期癌症(包括白血病)发病率不会有可见的升高。
However, because of the small numbers involved, no discernible increase in the incidence of childhood cancers, including leukaemia, among this group is expected.对工人的影响
Impact on workers对于几乎所有工人(截至2012年10月31日占99.3%),所报告的有效剂量很低(低于100毫西弗),平均剂量约为10毫西弗。
For almost all workers (99.3 per cent as of 31 October 2012), the effective doses reported were low (less than 100 mSv) with the average at about 10 mSv.辐射诱发的任何风险都会相应很低,依据目前的知识和有关剂量的信息,预计工人或其后代中可归因于辐射接触的、与辐射有关的健康影响在统计上不会有可见的升高。
Any radiation-induced risks would be correspondingly low and a statistically discernible increase in radiation-related health effects among workers or their descendants that could be attributed to radiation exposure is not expected on the basis of current knowledge and the information on doses.截至2012年10月31日,据估计工人中约有0.7%(即170人左右)主要通过外接触接收了超过100毫西弗的有效剂量,平均剂量约为140毫西弗。
As of 31 October 2012, about 0.7 per cent (i.e.预计这一群体的癌症患病率不会有可见的升高,因为对这么小的人群来说,这种升高与癌症发病率正常统计波动相比是微小的。
about 170) of the workers were estimated to have received effective doses in excess of 100 mSv, predominantly by external exposure, with an average dose of about 140 mSv.对于估计吸收到甲状腺的剂量在2至12戈瑞的13名工人,可推断他们患甲状腺癌和其他甲状腺失调症的风险增高。
No discernible increase in cancer in this group is expected, because its magnitude would be small in comparison with normal statistical fluctuations in cancer incidence for such a small group.但预计这一群体中癌症发病率不会有可见的升高,因为对于这么小的群体,很难比照癌症发病率的正常统计波动来确认这么小的发病率升高幅度。
For the thirteen workers who were estimated to have received absorbed doses to the thyroid in the range of 2 to 12 Gy, an increased risk of developing thyroid cancer and other thyroid disorders can be inferred.为本研究报告之目的,对于可根据现有风险模型推断出健康风险的情形,科委会使用的是“无可见升高”一语,但由于辐射接触人口数量少且接触水平低,未来使用现有方法未必能观察到发病率的上升。
However, no discernible increase of the incidence of cancer in this group is expected because of the difficulty confirming such a small increase in incidence against the normal statistical fluctuations in cancer incidence for such a small group.长期措施
For the purpose of this study, the Committee has used the phrase “no discernible increase” where a health risk can be inferred on the basis of existing risk models, but an increased incidence is unlikely to be observed in the future using currently available methods, because of the combined effects of the size of population exposed and low exposures.必须对辐射接触人口保持长期的医学跟踪,在某些疾病方面,清楚地报告他们健康状况的发展变化。
Long-term measures虽然从人口统计上说总体影响很低,但应当承认,鉴于某些个人和群体(特别是工人)接收的辐射剂量,理应进行医学跟踪。
It is important to maintain a long-term medical follow-up for the exposed population, and in relation to certain diseases, to provide a clear picture of their health status development.辐射接触以及对陆地和水生生态系统的影响
While the overall impact in terms of population statistics is low, it should be recognized that certain individuals and groups (especially workers) have received doses of radiation that warrant medical follow-up.对于事故发生后植物和动物接触辐射的剂量和相关影响,对照科委会以前对此类影响的评价结果进行了评价。
Radiation exposures and effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems一般来说,陆地和水生(淡水和海洋)生态系统的辐射接触水平都很低,没有可观察到的急性效应。
The doses and associated effects of radiation exposure on plants and animals following the accident were evaluated against the Committee’s previous evaluations of such effects.预计在自然界造成的任何效应都会是暂时的,因为持续时间很短。
In general, the exposures of both terrestrial and aquatic (freshwater and marine) ecosystems were too low for observable acute effects.对海洋环境中的非人类生物群的影响将局限于高放射性水排入海洋之处附近的区域。
Any effects were expected to be transient in nature, given their short duration.水生植物可能是例外,特别是生长在放射性水排入海洋的区域附近的水生植物。
Effects on non-human biota in the marine environment would have been confined to areas close to where highly radioactive water was released into the ocean.不能排除某些陆地生物(特别是哺乳动物)的生物标记继续发生变化,但这种变化对居群完整性的意义尚不明确。
Potential exceptions were water plants, especially those located in the area where radioactive water was discharged into the ocean.所产生的任何辐射效应都会局限于放射性材料沉积最多的有限地区;在此地区之外,对生物群产生影响的可能性不大。
Continued changes in biomarkers for certain terrestrial organisms, in particular mammals, could not be ruled out, but their significance for population integrity is unclear.本研究报告与现有其他报告的一致程度如何?
Any radiation effects would have been constrained to a limited area where deposition of radioactive material was greatest; beyond this area, the potential for effects on biota was insignificant.辐射科委会发现,日本人口的辐射接触水平很低,因而今后一生中因辐射造成的健康影响风险也相应很低。
How does this study fit in with other available reports?这一研究结果与世卫组织健康风险评估报告的结论一致。
UNSCEAR found that the exposure of the Japanese population was low, leading to correspondingly low risks of health effects due to radiation later in life.在世卫组织审议所涉期间过后,辐射科委会获得了更多的数据;因此对剂量和相关风险作出了更精确的估计,而且估计值稍低。
This finding is consistent with the conclusions of the WHO Health Risk Assessment Report. A larger quantity of data became available to UNSCEAR after the period considered by WHO; this resulted in more precise estimates of dose and associated risks, which were a little lower. Even though the estimated doses and risks reported by UNSCEAR are lower, they are scientifically consistent with the early WHO findings.辐射科委会报告的估计剂量和风险尽管较低,在科学上也与世卫组织早期的调查结果一致。
Simply put, UNSCEAR had more data (beyond 2011, into 2012, and even some information in 2013) and therefore less uncertainty.简言之,辐射科委会掌握的数据较多(2011年以后的数据、进入2012年的数据,甚至还有一些2013年的信息),因此不确定性较低。
WHO, on the other hand, had data up to September 2011, and therefore, greater uncertainty.而世卫组织掌握的是截至2011年9月的数据,因此不确定性较高。
http://www.who.int/ionizing_radiation/pub_meet/fukushima_risk_assessment_2013/en/http://www.who.int/ionizing_radiation/pub_meet/fukushima_risk_assessment_2013/en/
The primary purpose of the WHO health risk assessment of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident was to estimate its potential public health impact so that future health needs could be anticipated and public health actions could be taken.世卫组织对福岛第一核电站事故进行健康风险评估的首要目的是估计其潜在的公共健康影响,以便预计将来的医疗需要并采取公共健康行动。
The assessment thus was based on a preliminary estimate of radiation doses, as described in the report published in May 2012.因此评估的依据是对辐射剂量的初步估计,如2012年5月发表的报告所述。
Previous experience shows that, as time passes, more information becomes available to refine findings and analyses.以往的经验表明,随着时间推移,会掌握更多信息,使研究结果和分析更精确。
This process will continue over the coming years.这一过程将在今后几年继续下去。
Future research今后的研究
Past experience from the accidents at the Chernobyl and Three Mile Island nuclear power plants shows that more information about the factors contributing to the accident progression and the resulting exposures to the public, workers and the environment will continue to come forth.以往从切尔诺贝利和三哩岛核电站事故吸取的经验表明,将来会继续获得更多信息,了解推动事故进程的各种因素以及公众、工人和环境因此而接触辐射的情况。
UNSCEAR will follow developments in the situation and the results of research as they are published, and will consider them in developing its future programme of work.辐射科委会将跟踪新的发展情况和所发表的研究结果,并在制定今后的工作方案时予以考虑。
While more information will present itself in the future, and some details may change, the overall picture is not likely to change dramatically.将来会有更多信息,一些细节也可能会发生变化,但整体情况不太可能有很大改变。
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Evaluating radiation science for informed decision-making评价辐射科学以供知情决策
unscear.orgunscear.org
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For further information:如需更多信息,请洽:
UNSCEAR secretariat, Vienna International Centre, Wagramer Strasse 5, P.O. Box 500,UNSCEAR secretariat, Vienna International Centre, Wagramer Strasse 5, P.O. Box 500,
1400 Vienna, Austria, Email: unscear@unscear.org, www.unscear.org1400 Vienna, Austria,电子邮件:unscear@unscear.org, www.unscear.org
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